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Welp, we're losing the Euro now as well.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The deck gets deeper. My goodness. 

Just because I'll never see a model like this again. Hahaha.   

I measured 14-16” in many places. Local media saying we got 5” with this latest storm and I measured 2.5” Saturday morning on top of everything else. This is my north yard. 

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4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Welp, we're losing the Euro now as well.

Our only hope is they start coming back on future runs otherwise just light snow showers. Why can't we get a decent system to stay as modeled

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10 minutes ago, Tony said:

Our only hope is they start coming back on future runs otherwise just light snow showers. Why can't we get a decent system to stay as modeled

What’s wrong with 3-5”???

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1 minute ago, Tom said:

What’s wrong with 3-5”???

Nothing really but it would be nice to get a warning type snow while we have this artic air in place. I guess I'm ready for a biggie or two...guess I'm being greedy but oh well!

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7 minutes ago, Tony said:

Nothing really but it would be nice to get a warning type snow while we have this artic air in place. I guess I'm ready for a biggie or two...guess I'm being greedy but oh well!

Presidents Day Storm is lurking...

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7 minutes ago, Tony said:

Nothing really but it would be nice to get a warning type snow while we have this artic air in place. I guess I'm ready for a biggie or two...guess I'm being greedy but oh well!

If you're in Chicago you just had a Warning storm 10 days ago right? I may be the furthest north poster still waiting..

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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What has been odd lately, is how close Accuweather has been for snowfall predictions.  Typically it starts out high, then comes down to more reasonable levels when the storm is closer.  It was spot on with the big storm 2 weeks ago, and was almost exactly on last weekends multiple waves.  I just checked, and it has my area for 2-4" on Friday/Friday night, and 4-8" on Saturday night/Monday morning.  I would say the 2-4" looks good, the 4-8" for wave 2may be a little high, but ratios could be 20:1 so I guess it is possible.  I'll keep track and see if they are correct.

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1 minute ago, Tony said:

Nam still looking good for this weekend. Also showing a nice fetch off the lake for western shores of NE IL starting Thursday

That lake band looks rather interesting.  It could produce some intense rates if it holds together.  Similarly, this type of band set up across the lake into W MI last week and dumped close to 6" in some spots.  I could certainly see this band over perform in spots.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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Just now, Tom said:

That lake band looks rather interesting.  It could produce some intense rates if it holds together.  Similarly, this type of band set up across the lake into W MI last week and dumped close to 6" in some spots.  I could certainly see this band over perform in spots.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

Liking that it has it farther inland than you would normally see.

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KLNK SREF mean is 4.85" thru Saturday morning. It was pretty accurate with the high ratio clippers from a few days ago. 

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Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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11 minutes ago, OmahaSnowFan said:

Omaha NWS reduced my pops from likely to 40-50% on Friday/Friday night. Says 1-2 now vs 2-5" in earlier forecasts. Bitter cold and hope for a nickel and dimer event....

Ready for a pattern change at this point.

Not sure why. No significant model changes, I’d still say 2-5” is a good call.

Snowfall in Lincoln, NE:

2017-18: 21.4"   

2018-19: 55.5"   

2019-20: 17.6"   

2020-21: 49.4" (so far)

Average: 25.9"

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DMX's actually somewhat favorable for Saturday which is not the norm-

Another chance for snow is expected to evolve on Friday into
Saturday. There is not much in the way of low level QG convergence,
but we will be on the back side of the 140 knot jet streak in the
favorable right entrance region. In addition, cross sections show
good saturation in the mid-levels over much of Iowa and into the low
levels over central and southern Iowa. The lift also coincides in
the DGZ and with added frontogenesis in the 850-700mb layer and a
little more QPF, expect snow totals to be a bit higher with perhaps
a few totals nearing 3 inches over central or southern Iowa with 1
to 2 inches elsewhere. The snow should end mainly Saturday morning
as lift wanes and the atmospheric column dries out.
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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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8 minutes ago, Stormhunter87 said:

So if that actually pans out would that not be a record amount of snow for Kansas and Oklahoma. Those are insane numbers. Also -35 wind chill Saturday into Sunday. Going to be painfully cold.

No records, but yes, painfully cold. Snowy is the good part. That advertised -13° cold night is what's going to hurt so badly. I still remember 2011. That's some darn cold air.

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Tulsa AFD

(Some parts omitted...)

"Now to the meat of this forecast, and the bad news. The GFS and ECMWF have remained amazingly consistent, especially given the time range of the forecast, regarding the next storm to affect the Plains Sunday into Monday. Both models paint considerable QPF over a deepening arctic air mass over the region. Snow ratios from the NBM look underdone given how cold this air mass is, and will thus use a 15-20 to 1 ratio from the GFS/EC. Since the snow will be more powdery, winds will be blowing from the arctic high building south, and snow rates could be heavy at times, the potential is there for a highly impactful winter storm early next week. Travel could be shut down over a large area. Power outages could occur when winds pick up due to the residual ice on the lines from the recent weather. So this storm has the potential to be a big deal. Forecast snow amounts were increased."

 

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28 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

I just compared this map to the 12z Euro and it sure appears that the pink in Nebraska is farther south than the 12z. I like it. 

Keep the south trend coming. Not sure how reliable the 18z euro is though. One could only hope. We are already going to have a delayed spring, might as well keep it coming 

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End of NAM has snow well into IOWA from 2nd wave- which I believe will become a biggie. This  just screams potential.....Wheres the DGEX when you need it. Lolref1km_ptype.conus.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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I'd pay some serious jing to witness -13F (-33 wci )  in DSM with accumulating snow falling- I believe that would be a record for KDSM for coldest accumulating snowfall. The -50F near Rugby,ND would be a bonus---- btw- the wind chill map is literally off the charts for colors--- it only  goes down to -60F. sfctapp.us_nc.pngsfct.us_nc.png

prateptype.us_nc.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The UK has finally come north and lays down a few inches through Iowa.  The GFS is now a dry outlier.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z Euro trending much better and for a lot of us across the I-80 corridor and into the GL's.  Looks like the snow shield is more broad and covers a lot more real estate compared to previous runs.  Solid 3-6" snowfall area wide with additional LES across SE WI/NE IL.  The global models don't necessarily pick up the banding this far out compared to the CAM's.  The Euro does, however, show the LES/LEHS signal 

 

1.png

 

2.png

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06z NAM 3km...

snku_acc.us_mw.png

 

Still snowing at end of run...

nam3km_ref_frzn_ncus_60.png

 

 

 

 

I'm liking what I see wrt to the lake plume....it basically is stationary for about 12 hours straight into NE IL...hope it's onto something...

1.gif

 

 

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The trend is for the best snow today to be over northern Iowa and then tomorrow/Saturday over southern Iowa.  Hopefully, the NAMs are correct that the waves will combine to produce 4+" here.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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NWS Hastings is saying 1-5" tomorrow, generally more north, but models this morning still have bands in different places.  They haven't put out specifics yet for the Saturday night - Monday morning storm, but that one looks more impressive for my area.  They say the heaviest will be southwest of the Kearney area towards NW, NC Kansas.  I could see that being a 4"+ storm for our area.  I'll look at the other models that are just coming in now.

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