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Never started a topic before and models seem to have some sort of system or a series of waves around this time period. Hope I don't jinx it for us but here we go.

 

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The deck gets deeper. My goodness. 

Just because I'll never see a model like this again. Hahaha.   

I measured 14-16” in many places. Local media saying we got 5” with this latest storm and I measured 2.5” Saturday morning on top of everything else. This is my north yard. 

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20 minutes ago, Tony said:

Never started a topic before and models seem to have some sort of system or a series of waves around this time period. Hope I don't jinx it for us but here we go.

 

GDPS.png

UKMET.png

Looking like this could be a long duration event around here with some added lake enhancement.  I like the potential with this set up.

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Iowa really needs the PV lobe to hold nw a bit more.  Otherwise, the snow band streaks east across northern Missouri and then only lifts northeast once to our east.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro has inched back nw the last few runs.  Today's 12z would drop a few inches around here.  It's a shame there is very little moisture available.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The early NAM runs are farther nw than the other globals.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The GFSv16 is back and it's south with the weekend snow.

snku_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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IWX

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM EST Tue Feb 9 2021

Medium range models coming into reasonable agreement on re-
enforcing arctic intrusion for this weekend. Latest deterministic
runs have closed low vortex rotating down toward the US/Canadian
border to begin the weekend then swinging eastward across the
northern Great Lakes region. GEFS members showing good clustering
with low level thermal fields as 850mb thermal low drops down into
the northern plains/Upper MS valley Saturday night/Sunday
morning...then becoming more dispersive as the thermal trough
shifts eastward over the Great Lakes. Biggest impact for arctic
airmass will be realized Monday morning...despite 15F spread
within the NBM, ensemble solutions trending toward sub-zero
lows...-5 to -10F...with -15 to -20 wind chills. Plenty of
uncertainty with respect to snowfall potential this weekend as
models showing coastal low development but GFS/GEM both having
secondary wave development over the Appalacians which could
enhance snow potential for our area...something to keep an eye on
for now as NBM still carrying just low chance POPs Saturday.
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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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NWS Hastings disco snow potential

“Temperatures this cold also guarantee high snow ratios. This means that even very light QPF amounts can lead to a few inches of snowfall. Given the amount of snowpack that is already on the ground, it will be important to pay attention to potential snowband locations for the multiple rounds this weekend. Snow totals would easily add up if the same areas end up under a band multiple times over the weekend.”

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The 00z NAM still has a good look for many of us.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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00z ICON is south, 00z GFS is south :(

Both have nothing at all here.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Uk appears S and drier compared to 12Z  Pivotal not loading precip maps but 2M RH levels are and it's clearly S and drier (at least in IA).

The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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The NAM is on its own.  Everything else is going south and dry.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The Euro is not bad at all.  It does not sag the PV lobe southward as much as other models, so a band of decent snow (probably double this with a good ratio) is able to streak across Iowa.

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

 

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Some in W.NE is a different system- but this is totals through HR 102 Euro KUcheraimage.thumb.png.41c03260ed3a21d32a2850dfcafc3161.png

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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00z EPS and Control...this is starting to look like a long duration event across the I-80 corridor but as you get closer to the lake around these parts there is growing consensus that there will be LEHS.  Both the EPS/EC are definitely picking up on this potential.  A nearly perfectly placed Arctic HP centered to the NW of here allowing for a long duration N/NE Flow off the wide open lake.  Could this finally be the winning ticket for us snow geese in Chicagoland and MKE area???  As much as I am digging this look inside 5 days, we know much can change wrt to the LEHS parameters.  Needless to say, the trends are looking up and not down.

 

3.png

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Some of the snow in the map below for NE is coming from the next storm we will likely be tracking for President's Day....

 

5.png

 

 

2.png

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1 hour ago, Clinton said:

6z Euro looking good for I-80 folks.

1613260800-5rxrAzSv3T0.png

Does that only go out to 90 hours?  Hastings is mentioning the storm Sunday into Monday that will move from western to central Nebraska then off to the southeast.  They said that one might give us another decent amount.  Thanks for all your help on the board.

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51 minutes ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Does that only go out to 90 hours?  Hastings is mentioning the storm Sunday into Monday that will move from western to central Nebraska then off to the southeast.  They said that one might give us another decent amount.  Thanks for all your help on the board.

Here is the Euro Control for the full 144.  I only have 10:1 available.

1613455200-wBdgZSrlNAI.png

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CentralNeb, you posted the 06z NAM and RDPS, not the 12z.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Both the GFS and v16 are both going very dry for my area.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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2 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

Both the GFS and v16 are both going very dry for my area.

I wonder if it is the cold, dry, high pressure that is forcing everything south and west of you.  I've seen that happen before in these situations that Eastern Nebraska gets less than Western Nebraska.

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Just looked at my weather apps, 60-70% chance of snow Friday and Friday night, 30-40% chance Saturday night to Monday morning.  Appears snow is likely Friday, amounts still in question depending on model.  NWS still waiting another day or two for specifics on the 2nd wave Saturday night to Monday morning, though I think that could be pretty good unless it gets suppressed southwest of me.  

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