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Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm


Tom

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Nice to see some consistency finally. Looking at wind profiles, I don't think the lake temperatures will cut back on snow that much. Largely lake temps are running 35-40° right now.

 

At the time of the most intense part of the storm winds flip offshore.

 

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Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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This storm is really creating havoc for everyone on this forum. Could be rain, could be snow, could be nada. Temps will definitely be an issue for whoever gets this storm but as it looks now its not a huge storm by any means but being on Christmas Eve and being the first accumulating event this month, it could be a nightmare for travelers.

 

The devil is in the details which hopefully be ironed out by Wednesday's 0z runs.

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Soundings from the GFS look good in terms of no mid level warm layer. Just need to get good snowfall rates to overcome any temperatures above freezing.

 

 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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ALL the hi-res runs have a western solution, the 4km NAM is great for much of this forum...

Looks like most of the models are trending towards a western solution BUT since the models have changed daily cannot buy into it 100% just yet. Guessing some sampling has been ingested into the 12z modeling which is a good sign moving forward.

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Looks like most of the models are trending towards a western solution BUT since the models have changed daily cannot buy into it 100% just yet. Guessing some sampling has been ingested into the 12z modeling which is a good sign moving forward.

 

0z runs tonight we should have a pretty good idea. 

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0z runs tonight we should have a pretty good idea. 

You would hope but as far as snowfall goes I believe it will come down to a nowcasting event based on temp profiles. Hoping dynamic cooling/heavy precip will overcome the somewhat warm layer. I have seen this happen many times so have a good feeling about this.

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I have done my own case study with this system and believe it or not, the GFS Par has been the only model (GFS at times) that has had a west ward trend in the track with this system.  Now to see the Euro trend west, maybe the gov't updates towards the GFS Par is giving that model some boost.

 

12z Euro...with a 987mb near South Bend, IN...

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For over a week out, both the Euro Ensembles did quite well sniffing out this storm system and gave us a general idea of where this storm would form.  With only 2 days away from the event, its evident that a lower lakes cutter was the right idea.  It's too bad this storm wont have the amount of cold air to establish a huge snowstorm and take on a neg tilt.  Whoever gets snow on Christmas Eve, consider yourself lucky to thread this needle.

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