Christmas Eve Potential Major Winter Storm

[Yerf]

A local met in Chicago said the thunderstorm activity in the south may rob the storm of moisture as it heads north. I've never heard of that

[Tom]

A local met in Chicago said the thunderstorm activity in the south may rob the storm of moisture as it heads north. I've never heard of that

That happens on occasion, especially when a system like this doesn't begin to mature until late when its already near the Lakes.  In order to avoid this, you would need to have the system go neg tilt much, much earlier and wrap that moisture around.

[tim the weatherman]

gary lezal has said something on his weather blog about the national news media hyping this storm to be big but he also has said that there wasn't enough cold air to make this a big snowstorm.

[gosaints]

What's the point of posting what the GFS is showing? Do you really buy what it's showing?

Lol. Its as if the nmm and arw are always perfect 18 hours out.... Not

[Geos]

I wouldn't call the GFS a non-event. It's just close to the EURO that's all.

 

 

Mostly clear skies are helping drop the temperature pretty fast and lowering the dewpoint.

[tim the weatherman]

A local met in Chicago said the thunderstorm activity in the south may rob the storm of moisture as it heads north. I've never heard of that

what local met in chicago said that?

[Geos]

Moisture robbing usually happens when you have a positive tilted system or borderline neutral. Or a wave that isn't closed all the way.

[Yerf]

what local met in chicago said that?

Caplan

[Sciascia]

Caplan just tweeted:

 

"@MikeCaplanABC7: Next forecast model update around 9pm. Could be a major revision. I'll let you know."

[Maxim]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/latest/SREF_SNOWFALL_MEAN12HR_f036.gif

[tim the weatherman]

mike caplan of abc 7 chicago has a friend on facebook asked him a question if the severe thunderstorms down across the south can indeed rob the moisture further north.

[tim the weatherman]

[indianajohn]

Mike Caplan pretty much referencing to how the models have been going back and forth and is waiting to see 0Z NAM do something drastic again.

[Geos]

Mike Caplan pretty much referencing to how the models have been going back and forth and is waiting to see 0Z NAM do something drastic again.

 

Jerry Taft was the same way too.

 

35°/31° here currently. Cooling off nicely.

[Scott26]

I hope at least one of us here gets hit pretty good with this storm. It would suck after all of this tracking if all of us are missed haha. I'm hoping the 00Z NAM doesn't shift farther eastward...

[GDR]

What's the point of posting what the GFS is showing? Do you really buy what it's showing?

it's stupid to even look at the gfs right now.

[gosaints]

Srefs pretty dry on the 12 hour mean

[Sciascia]

Updated SREF showing nothing more than a couple inch event around these parts.

[gosaints]

Updated SREF showing nothing more than a couple inch event around these parts.

Nam is wet as well and east

[james1976]

Ive been out for several days due to some family stuff. Whats going on?? Looks like Chicago is in the bullseye......? 

[Maxim]

Srefs pretty dry on the 12 hour mean

The map refreshed by itself. The 1-2" is for hours 24 - 36 now.

[tim the weatherman]

it loos like it's shifting east.

[gosaints]

12km nam nothing to see. Will see about the hi res.

[Maxim]

So much pessimism on here, it's unreal.

[gosaints]

So much pessimism on here, it's unreal.

Its not pessimism. Its what the model is showing

[gosaints]

Hi red nam same thing

[LegitWebos7]

lol winter storm bust for chitown. euro can't be denied

[GDR]

[Sciascia]

Would be a major victory for the EURO, considering it was dismissed on the LOT conference call as the eastern outlier.

[Maxim]

Has Caplan said anything yet?

[Geos]

I guess it's time to just sit back and see what happens. With about 4 years of model watching, sometimes it's the models run about 24 hours from the event that end up being most accurate.

[Sciascia]

Has Caplan said anything yet?

"@MikeCaplanABC7: New NAM is in and it's east. Significant snowfall threat dramatically less in IL. Still could be some minor accums in IN."

[Maxim]

Never did I think this would miss us to the east though. Before, I was always concerned about it tracking too far to the west 

[Maxim]

"@MikeCaplanABC7: New NAM is in and it's east. Significant snowfall threat dramatically less in IL. Still could be some minor accums in IN."

Yeah, figured he'd say something like that.

[Maxim]

Update from LOT:

 

.UPDATE...
855 PM CST

OBSERVED DATA IS STARTING TO GIVE SOME BETTER CLUES AS TO HOW THE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS TO THE EAST OF THE AREA WILL
PLAY OUT. LATEST SURFACE OBS SHOW AN INVERTED TROUGH TAKING SHAPE
FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COAST TO FAR SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WHERE IT
THEN ARCS NORTHEAST INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO. BASED ON WIND FIELDS
ON THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TROUGH IT APPEARS THAT THE
ULTIMATE TRACK OF THE LOW WOULD BE A LITTLE FURTHER EAST THAN
EARLIER GUIDANCE AND FORECASTS SUGGESTED. THIS WOULD TAKE THE LOW
EAST OF INDIANAPOLIS THOUGH PROBABLY NOT AS FAR EAST AS
RICHMOND...THEN UP INTO FAR NORTHWEST OHIO TOWARDS DEFIANCE.
TREND OF PRESSURE FALLS HAS BEEN TAKING THEM FROM SOUTHEAST
INDIANA UP ACROSS THE CINCINNATI AREA TOWARDS COLUMBUS SUPPORTING
THE FURTHER EAST TRACK AND PERHAPS ONE FURTHER EAST OF THE TRACK
DESCRIBED ABOVE. 18Z GUIDANCE HAD HINTED AT A FURTHER EAST TRACK
BUT MANAGED TO KEEP MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
WELL TO THE WEST AND ACROSS NORTHEAST ILLINOIS/NORTHWEST INDIANA.
THE 00Z NAM HAS COME IN AND IS FURTHER EAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW
AND IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE ANALYSIS ABOVE. HAVE CONSIDERED SHIFTING
GEARS A BIT TAKING THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIEST PRECIP A LITTLE FURTHER
EAST BUT WITH THE INCONSISTENCY OF THE NAM OF LATE...THE PENDING
ARRIVAL OF A MYRIAD OF NEW 00Z GUIDANCE AND COORDINATION WITH
NEIGHBORING WFOS AND WPC...WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY CHANGES FOR NOW.
THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE AND MAY STILL REQUIRE
VERY STRONG FORCING TO PRODUCE ALL SNOW. IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST
FORCING MAY TRY TO SHIFT A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE GOING
FORECAST SUGGESTING THAT THE IL/IN STATE LINE AREA AND MUCH OF
NORTHWEST INDIANA MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES AND
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF
FGEN FORCING SPREAD ACROSS NW IL WHICH COULD PRODUCE A PERIOD OF
ALL SNOW OVER A BROADER AREA. LATE MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE MAIN TIME FRAME...THOUGH AN EARLIER CHANGE
OVER IN NW INDIANA IS POSSIBLE AND ANY HEADLINES MAY NEED TO BE
STARTED EARLIER.

WILL LEAVE HEADLINES AS-IS FOR NOW AND RE-ISSUE SPS FOR NORTHWEST
AREAS NOT IN A HEADLINE HIGHLIGHTING POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO THE
EAST. WILL BOLSTER WORDING IN AN SPS FOR JASPER AND BENTON
COUNTIES AS IT IS POSSIBLE A HEADLINE MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR
THEM TONIGHT.

[Geos]

 

He's going with a dusting to 2" for the Chicago metro proper.

[Geos]

Even 20 to 30 miles further west, puts several million more people in the snow area. Just a thought looking at the GFS guidance.

 

[indianajohn]

So looking like King Euro will be the big winner

[Geos]

RAP might be just being itself, but it has the deformation band back to the west a bit. Watches and advisories could be held in place if any other guidance agrees.

 

  

 

 

ARW and NMM wrf models still a bit west...

 

[Maxim]

I'm more concerned about when we'll changeover to snow. The changeover is crucial to how much accumulating snow we may receive.