February 2014 in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Wait, did Tim leave too?

[luvssnow_spokane]

Is this comedy night? What's going on? Now we have 2 snowstorms for PDX, 63 and rain in LR, 0Z GFS is freakin' out, winter cancel, a foot of snow for PDX, and the cold spell is now not so cold. How can all this happen in such a short time???

I honestly have to admit living here as long as I have things play out like this more than they don't... For now it is a wait and see but this is something many of us have been through many times. At this point I just do not care anymore. I was not all that excited about a snow to quick slop transition anyway... Maybe this improves our chances for something better, maybe not.

[Gradient Keeper]

Not really. The WRF, EURO and Canadian were all pretty solid on a major cold outbreak. Even the operational GFS came around the last few days. Until tonight. And now the Canadian is following it.

 

Just feels like the whole thing is falling apart on us all of a sudden, and to add insult to injury certain people are rubbing it in. Maybe it would be best if I just stopped posting for the night.

If there is some chance that this were to fall apart.... Yep, it would suck, but well life goes on. We've seen it happen before. There is no rhyme or reason. Things happen. Try not to let this or anything dictate your mindset and emotions dude.

[Weather101]

Wait, did Tim leave too?

So it's going to be cold not super cold and the snowstorm shown 6 days out is not as much 5 days out and everyone is depressed ? there's still time for things to turn out good

[luvssnow_spokane]

Not really. The WRF, EURO and Canadian were all pretty solid on a major cold outbreak. Even the operational GFS came around the last few days. Until tonight. And now the Canadian is following it.

 

Just feels like the whole thing is falling apart on us all of a sudden, and to add insult to injury certain people are rubbing it in. Maybe it would be best if I just stopped posting for the night.

Just remember this when you start attacking people for feeling the way you feel now and post about it. Karma is a *****. Maybe you can relate to this in the future and maybe not be such a jerk.

[TT-SEA]

Wait, did Tim leave too?

 

What?

 

All is fine here.

[TT-SEA]

Just remember this when you start attacking people for feeling the way you feel now and post about it. Karma is a *****. Maybe you can relate to this in the future and maybe not be such a jerk.

 

 

Is it possible to give all my 'likes' for one day to one post??    

[Gradient Keeper]

What?

 

All is fine here.

Oh, there you are... I thought you had checked out for the night being you hadn't posted in.... wow minutes!

 

EDIT: You have 200 more posts than I do, Tim. Congrats! ....

[TT-SEA]

Gorge hanging on Sunday afternoon... pretty toasty elsewhere.   

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.144.0000.gif

[The Swamp]

Here is my prediction. Cold blast not as cold and doesn't push as aggressively south. This will allow moisture later in the week to lift further north. Olympia to Everett will get nailed hard with 5-8" of snow. There will be no change-over to rain.

 

Portland snow fans, sorry, this one is going to miss you.

 

Puyallup will remain in its own microclimate meaning 35 and rain for the entire event.

 

Hell, my prediction has as good a shot of verifying than any others.

 

Your welcome.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Gorge hanging on Sunday afternoon... pretty toasty elsewhere.   

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.144.0000.gif

Still cold enuf to rain.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Gorge hanging on Sunday afternoon... pretty toasty elsewhere.   

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.144.0000.gif

Personally I am fine with this... The quick snow to rain transitions just plain suck so would prefer just to move on. If it still snows I am fine with that too but at this point I could care less either way.

[TT-SEA]

Oh, there you are... I thought you had checked out for the night being you hadn't posted in.... wow minutes!

 

EDIT: You have 200 more posts than I do, Tim. Congrats! ....

 

 

You may lack quantity... but make up for it big time in quality compared to some of my posts.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Here is my prediction. Cold blast not as cold and doesn't push as aggressively south. This will allow moisture later in the week to lift further north. Olympia to Everett will get nailed hard with 5-8" of snow. There will be no change-over to rain.

Portland snow fans, sorry, this one is going to miss you.

Puyallup will remain in its own microclimate meaning 35 and rain for the entire event.

Hell, my prediction has as good a shot of verifying than any others.

Your welcome.

lol! Honestly, I have seen it play out this way a number of times... you have a very good chance of being right!! we shall see soon enough.

[TT-SEA]

Personally I am fine with this... The quick snow to rain transitions just plain suck so would prefer just to move on. If it still snows I am fine with that too but at this point I could care less either way.

 

 

I feel about the same.    Amazing how much less I care once the calendar turns to February.    I peak in December.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

If you live in Eugene you love the 00z. They weren't going to get snow with a transition event anyways...

 

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020400/images_d2/or_snow24.96.0000.gif

[Weather101]

27F here

Dewpoint 10F

[Weather101]

Here is my prediction. Cold blast not as cold and doesn't push as aggressively south. This will allow moisture later in the week to lift further north. Olympia to Everett will get nailed hard with 5-8" of snow. There will be no change-over to rain.

 

Portland snow fans, sorry, this one is going to miss you.

 

Puyallup will remain in its own microclimate meaning 35 and rain for the entire event.

 

Hell, my prediction has as good a shot of verifying than any others.

 

Your welcome.

What do you think

For Vancouver?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like the operational was the warmest, the ensemble mean has crept up a little.

[Snow]

00z GFS Operational Warm Outlier and ensemble mean shows more precip earlier like in the ECMWF, GREAT NEWS!

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[brody]

I feel about the same.    Amazing how much less I care once the calendar turns to February.    I peak in December.   

Tim you DONT care what month it is, you constantly piss and moan and strive to find the negative in most everything meteorologically speaking

[luvssnow_spokane]

I feel about the same. Amazing how much less I care once the calendar turns to February. I peak in December.

 

Yeah... I peak about mid January after that I know realistically getting anything meaningful around here in out modern climate is like winning the lottery. Anything that does happen this time of year is almost guaranteed to be short lived and marginal specially when it comes to sustainable snow. The only thing I really care about is snow in the mountains at this point. If we get lowland surprises then great just let it stick around longer than 24 hours before going to . That is just a waste.

[Gradient Keeper]

Okay, sports fans....

 

00z EURO thread
Want to play along? begins soon. Will it continue to be very cold? or does it revert to this new pattern the 00z GFS/GEM are showing. You can cut the tension in here with a spoon.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[Weather101]

Tim you DONT care what month it is, you constantly piss and moan and strive to find the negative in most everything meteorologically speaking

He peaks in December hahaha

[Weather101]

Okay, sports fans....

 

00z EURO thread

Want to play along?

begins soon. Will it continue to be very cold? or does it revert to this new pattern the 00z GFS/GEM are showing. You can cut the tension in here with a spoon.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

Cold.

[TT-SEA]

Tim you DONT care what month it is, you constantly piss and moan and strive to find the negative in most everything meteorologically speaking

 

 

I have been insanely happy with this winter and my complaining about our weather has been close to nothing.    

 

In fact... for the last year the weather has been crazy nice overall.    

[Weather101]

I have been insanely happy with this winter and my complaining about our weather has been close to nothing.

 

In fact... for the last year the weather has been crazy nice overall.

Can I ask you a serious question ?

[Snow]

Okay, sports fans....

 

00z EURO thread

Want to play along? begins soon. Will it continue to be very cold? or does it revert to this new pattern the 00z GFS/GEM are showing. You can cut the tension in here with a spoon.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

 

It's going to be very cold with more moisture.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Okay, sports fans....

 

00z EURO threadWant to play along? begins soon. Will it continue to be very cold? or does it revert to this new pattern the 00z GFS/GEM are showing. You can cut the tension in here with a spoon.http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

I honestly think it will not go that direction this run but maybe the next if the new pattern shown by the GFS/GEM is accurate. There is often up to a 12 to 24 hr delay before the EURO swings.

[TT-SEA]

Can I ask you a serious question ?

 

Let me give the answer to your question...

 

I love nice weather more than anything else here.   Never was like that before moving here.   Whatever.   Been discussed a million times.   I love snow and cold as well... and thunderstorms... and well-spaced rain/wind events.     

 

But nothing makes me happier in this beautiful place than our dry weather days.     But I do want lots of rain and mountain snow in the next 6 weeks so it can be beautiful this summer.

[Gradient Keeper]

Out to HR 48

Looks quite a bit colder than GEM/GFS to me, what say you? 510 line near The Dalles. 850mb -12c to -13c PDX. May turn colder yet Thursday-Friday.

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f48.gif

[The Swamp]

What do you think

For Vancouver?

I'm pouring over the charts now(no pun intended). This doesn't look good for Vancouver. There is a reload at hour 666 on the underground GFS(not accessible to the general public). There is a lot of winter left. Be patient.

[epiceast]

Let me give the answer to your question...

 

I love nice weather more than anything else here.   Never was like that before moving here.   Whatever.   Been discussed a million times.   I love snow and cold as well... and thunderstorms... and well-spaced rain/wind events.     

 

But nothing makes me happier in this beautiful place than our dry weather days.     But I do want lots of rain and mountain snow in the next 6 weeks.   

How about next 6 and past 12

[TT-SEA]

I'm pouring over the charts now(no pun intended). This doesn't look good for Vancouver. There is a reload at hour 666 on the underground GFS(not accessible to the general public). There is a lot of winter left. Be patient.

 

There is no doubt the big event is out around 880-895 hours.    The set-up is just perfect.    Some slight warming can be expected but its solid.

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 72

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f72.gif

[Gradient Keeper]

HR 96

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF0.5_0z/f96.gif

[Weather101]

I'm pouring over the charts now(no pun intended). This doesn't look good for Vancouver. There is a reload at hour 666 on the underground GFS(not accessible to the general public). There is a lot of winter left. Be patient.

Hmmm I still think I'll be cold enough for a overrunning event for us tho!?

[luvssnow_spokane]

There is no doubt the big event is out around 880-895 hours.    The set-up is just perfect.    Some slight warming can be expected but its solid.

Perfect timing for the winter pattern I said would occur in the spring. We will have the perfect setup then but sadly it will be mid to late March.

[TT-SEA]

Perfect timing for the winter pattern I said would occur in the spring. We will have the perfect setup then but sadly it will be mid to late March.

 

Sun angle is not a real problem until mid to late May.    

[TT-SEA]

Rob... is the ECMWF slower with the precip on Friday?

 

Keep posting those images... hate waiting until 10:55 to see the ECMWF.