February 2014 in the PNW

[Thunderhill]

However, the timing for the weekend event is more in line with the Euro.

18z NAM adds to the parade of uncertainty.  

[MossMan]

Went from mostly sunny a few hours ago to completely cloudy now here at work...hmmmmm

[FroYoBro]

I don't think we have mastered the art of weather modeling yet. 

[TT-SEA]

Went from mostly sunny a few hours ago to completely cloudy now here at work...hmmmmm

 

 

Yeah... its nothing but dry air though.

 

Its been mostly cloudy here all day with radar echoes over me and there is absolutely nothing happening nor does it feel like it will actually snow.   

[Bryant]

Yeah... its nothing but dry air though.

 

Its been mostly cloudy here all day with radar echoes over me and there is absolutely nothing happening nor does it feel like it will actually snow.

 

Its quite possible though. My Dad told me it snowed this morning in Maple Valley. Also snowed in Skagit County.

[Weather101]

32F here

Dewpoint is 1F

Sunny and cold

[TT-SEA]

Its quite possible though. My Dad told me it snowed this morning in Maple Valley. Also snowed in Skagit County.

 

A few flakes possible?   Absolutely.

 

We aren't that desperate are we?   

[Weather101]

A few flakes possible? Absolutely.

 

We aren't that desperate are we?

I'm

Just looking at the weekend. Hoping the storm gets in a good position so I can see some snow here and it can pull in more cold air and set the stage for another system early next week. Long shot but possible.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I'm

Just looking at the weekend. Hoping the storm gets in a good position so I can see some snow here and it can pull in more cold air and set the stage for another system early next week. Long shot but possible.

It may actually be seeing snow turn to slop isn a few hours...  For some it may be ice we all know how fun that is.  Hopefully It is ends up being better than that though.

[Bryant]

A few flakes possible?   Absolutely.

 

We aren't that desperate are we?   

Someone mentioned clouds building in, and you said it was nothing but dry air. It's nice to see a few flakes, no matter if it's only for a short while. Just because you think that's being desperate doesn't make a difference.

[TT-SEA]

Someone mentioned clouds building in, and you said it was nothing but dry air. It's nice to see a few flakes, no matter if it's only for a short while. Just because you think that's being desperate doesn't make a difference.

 

 

I know Randy was actually thinking that a c-zone situation might be developing in his area... which is very common in these situations.     Just looking at the radar and the satellite (and the sky) I would be thinking the same thing.    I am just giving a report from an area under the clouds and radar echoes all day.   

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

It may actually be seeing snow turn to slop isn a few hours...  For some it may be ice we all know how fun that is.  Hopefully It is ends up being better than that though.

Were you here for December 1996? Not saying this will be like that but a true over running event here with heavy snow is still fun and does not wash away in a few hrs. And this looks to warm up slowly and not torch.

[TT-SEA]

Down in Oregon the situation right now looks much more interesting.   And juicy.

[FroYoBro]

Looks like I probably hit my high of 36 degrees. Starting to feel a little bit of an eastern breeze and it's 35 degrees.

[Gradient Keeper]

My temp is down to 33.1 ... The increasingly cold east wind is holding temps down east of I-205.

[weatherfan2012]

Yep, completely agreed. I would think it would tend to negate the "warming" over PDX with -11c to -12c.

Am I the only one here almost ready for spring? This winter has zapped my energy levels big time.

this winter has turned out to be 1981-82 all over again.Larry cosgrove went with this analog back in the fall.81-82 saw the very cold january but then the pattern tottly broke down in febuary very much like what we have seen this winter progessen wise.the Nao was also postive in the means that winter but had the negative epo december and january.81-82 pretty good match for winter of 2013-14

[HighlandExperience]

Were you here for December 1996? Not saying this will be like that but a true over running event here with heavy snow is still fun and does not wash away in a few hrs. And this looks to warm up slowly and not torch.

 

You are right. I was just a young kid in 1996, but I still remember that event. Seems like our best snows come during over running storms. I hope this coming weekend will give us some heavy snow for a bit before turning to rain. 

[FroYoBro]

The 18z GFS gives most of the Willamette Valley snow (except the Portland area) for Friday. 

[TT-SEA]

The 18z GFS gives most of the Willamette Valley snow (except the Portland area) for Friday. 

 

 

No... it does that on Thursday not Friday.   Even better!

 

Friday is dry.

 

Saturday looks interesting as usual.

[FroYoBro]

No... it does that on Thursday not Friday.   Even better!

 

Friday is dry.

 

Saturday looks interesting as usual.

Yep, true. I was looking at the wrong date. 

 

No one can call this week boring at least. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

Hmm looks like a convergence zone it trying to form around Kirkland. To early to know for sure but the Southerly and Northerly winds seem to be colliding at that point based on the radar. I have seen this happen before with this type of setup. Worth watching!

[Thunderhill]

18z has snow showers here Thursday night (PDX)…further north progression again…keep up this trend and we are going to have a snowstorm here Thursday night.

[HighlandExperience]

18z has snow showers here Thursday night (PDX)…further north progression again…keep up this trend and we are going to have a snowstorm here Thursday night.

 

It will probably keep trending north. 

[FroYoBro]

Looks like the moisture is stalling over the Eastern metro area. Those areas could get a dusting of snow. 

[TT-SEA]

Hmm looks like a convergence zone it trying to form around Kirkland. To early to know for sure but the Southerly and Northerly winds seem to be colliding at that point looking at the radar. I have seen this happen before with this type of setup. Worth watching!

 

 

There is no southerly wind.   

 

Winds are from the N or E throughout the entire Seattle area.

[Gradient Keeper]

Looks like the moisture is stalling over the Eastern metro area. Those areas could get a dusting of snow. 

Just a few scattered flurries here. With the cold east wind Dewpoints are too low for anything substantial.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Kinda hard to tell but it looks like the 18z has offshore flow for us all weekend.

[luvssnow_spokane]

There is no southerly wind.   

 

Winds are from the N or E throughout the entire Seattle area.

Maybe no south wind but showers are rotating in from the south heading north with no south wind then.

[Deweydog]

East wind starting to kick in here at the base of the foothills.  Pretty good indication the deeper advection is taking over.  

[TT-SEA]

Maybe no south wind but showers are rotating in from the south heading north with no south wind then.

 

Definitely a spin.

 

Everything seems to be virga up here.

[luvssnow_spokane]

Definitely a spin.

 

Everything seems to be virga up here.

Been a number of flurries and light showers today but not nearly as much reaching the ground as the radar shows. 

[Snow]

18z GFS still shows the system Thursday overnight but I expected this due its poor satellite observations, which is even worse on the 18z compared to 00z. I expect the 00z GFS tonight to not show this. The GFS has now caught up to the ECMWF in moving the moisture in sooner Saturday but it took a couple days.

[seattleweatherguy]

Hmm looks like a convergence zone it trying to form around Kirkland. To early to know for sure but the Southerly and Northerly winds seem to be colliding at that point based on the radar. I have seen this happen before with this type of setup. Worth watching!

I saw some light very light flurries today.

[MossMan]

Just started snowing a little here at my work, but my wife is texting me about how a horrible forecaster I am since it is snowing pretty good down at her work in Lynnwood from what she tells me, and that I am fired from being a "weatherman" since I told her no chance of snow today, and that driving her Acura RSX would be just fine instead of the all wheel drive Acadia. Oops.

[Snow]

18z GFS shows all snow for PDX Saturday morning and doesn't switch over to ice until Sunday morning. Then a ice storm from Sunday morning till whenever PDX loses it's east wind. Rod Hill who forecasted 6"+ looks like he might be right. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_111_10m_wnd_precip_l.gif

[MossMan]

Just started snowing a little here at my work, but my wife is texting me about how a horrible forecaster I am since it is snowing pretty good down at her work in Lynnwood from what she tells me, and that I am fired from being a "weatherman" since I told her no chance of snow today, and that driving her Acura RSX would be just fine instead of the all wheel drive Acadia. Oops.

Looking at the cams in the Lynnwood area, it looks like my wife is exaggerating a bit. THOUGH it is really starting to come down here at my work right off I-5 on the Snohomish/Skagit line!! 

[TT-SEA]

Just started snowing a little here at my work, but my wife is texting me about how a horrible forecaster I am since it is snowing pretty good down at her work in Lynnwood from what she tells me, and that I am fired from being a "weatherman" since I told her no chance of snow today, and that driving her Acura RSX would be just fine instead of the all wheel drive Acadia. Oops.

 

I am guessing that she will not need all-wheel drive today!   

 

To put your mind at ease... here is a live shot from Lynnwood.  

 

http://s12.postimg.org/ref6twdil/405vc03022.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wow the 18z is great for snow at my location. Probably a few inches Thursday night if it verifies and big event for EUG and SLE.

 

My friend works in Oregon City and just sent me a pic, there is a solid dusting there. The Silver Falls cam shows a little additional snowcover too.

[Deweydog]

18z GFS shows all snow for PDX Saturday morning and doesn't switch over to ice until Sunday morning. Then a ice storm from Sunday morning till whenever PDX loses it's east wind. Rod Hill who forecasted 6"+ looks like he might be right. 

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/18/gfs_namer_111_10m_wnd_precip_l.gif

 

Just a word of warning, the 0c line, whether at 2m or at 850mb, does not equate to a complete column of air at or below 32 degrees.  The models are consistent on showing a considerable amount of consistent warm advection associated with the onset of precipitation.  We're just gonna have to wait a couple more days to get a clearer picture of exact precip type.

[paulstorm]

NSSL's Ping is showcasing some reports of snow along the King/Snohomish county line.