February 2014 in the PNW

[Snow]

18z NAM shows snow starting Friday afternoon at PDX.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_075_10m_wnd_precip.gif

 

 

 

Then heavier moisture just before midnight, all snow.

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/nam/18/nam_namer_084_10m_wnd_precip.gif

[BLI snowman]

Look increasingly like a January 1998 type event could setup for someone, with the arctic boundary being weaker than expected south of Portland.

[TT-SEA]

Look increasingly like a January 1998 type event could setup for someone, with the arctic boundary being weaker than expected south of Portland.

 

What happened in January 1998?

[paulstorm]

View from my balcony in Downtown Seattle looking north towards the area of convergence. 

[BLI snowman]

What happened in January 1998?

 

Big snowstorm between January 10-12, 1998. Arctic boundary just kind of stalled at the Columbia River for a couple of days and the Portland to Tacoma corridor got a lot of snow from an overrunning low at the tail edge of the arctic air. I had 15" down in the Vancouver area, while 30 miles to the south there was nothing.

 

This looks to set up further south than that event did, but today's model runs are showing Roseburg to Salem getting a lot of snow potentially as the arctic air boundary stalls out over southern Oregon.

[Snow]

View from my balcony in Downtown Seattle looking north towards the area of convergence. 

 

Cool view!

[Gradient Keeper]

Upper Air Analysis 
as of 3:30 PM
3 plots. Portland, The Dalles, Spokane 

925mb: PDX -5.3c, DLS -8.0c, GEG -11.9c
850mb: PDX -9.0c, DLS -13.3c, GEG -17.7c

[TT-SEA]

Big snowstorm between January 10-12, 1998. Arctic boundary just kind of stalled at the Columbia River for a couple of days and the Portland to Tacoma corridor got a lot of snow from an overrunning low at the tail edge of the arctic air. I had 15" down in the Vancouver area, while 30 miles to the south there was nothing.

 

This looks to set up further south than that event did, but today's model runs are showing Roseburg to Salem getting a lot of snow potentially as the arctic air boundary stalls out over southern Oregon.

 

You are talking about Thursday then?

[BLI snowman]

You are talking about Thursday then?

 

Yeah, Thursday into Friday.

 

If the GFS were to be believed, Eugene would have another 6"+ snow event on Thursday night then get a couple more inches later Friday night. All with 850mb temps never going below -7c.

[Snow]

18z GFS Ensembles. Don't let the few very warm members fool you, it skews the mean up. Still lots of members dropping down to -15.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[Deweydog]

Look increasingly like a January 1998 type event could setup for someone, with the arctic boundary being weaker than expected south of Portland.

 

I was looking that one over earlier.  Big difference down here is the fact the cold air advection is more traditional.  That event was unique in that the Arctic air moved in after the overrunning began.  

[Weather101]

I'll see a low of 8 or 9 F before it's all set and done. I prefer snow during the day then night am I the only one ?

[BLI snowman]

I was looking that one over earlier.  Big difference down here is the fact the cold air advection is more traditional.  That event was unique in that the Arctic air moved in after the overrunning began.  

 

It's definitely a colder event this time around. Portland looks to be in about the same position that Seattle was in with that event.

[TT-SEA]

18z GFS Ensembles. Don't let the few very warm members fool you, it skews the mean up. Still lots of members dropping down to -15.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

 

 

 

 

Who care what it shows for this week???

 

Its already happening.

 

The screaming message from that image is that it will turn mild and wet very soon here.    

[Deweydog]

It's definitely a colder event this time around. Portland looks to be in about the same position that Seattle was in with that event.

 

True.  I know it will probably send Jesse over the edge, but I can handle things shifting north 100 miles or so.  

[BLI snowman]

True.  I know it will probably send Jesse over the edge, but I can handle things shifting north 100 miles or so.  

 

Models tend to underdo precip if anything in these situations, so it could benefit more people.

 

It was a ways back, but I remember the 1998 storm overachieving quite a bunch in the region. Computer models sucked back then, but they showed a spotty little event for southern WA and didn't show any snow making it too far north of Portland. Tacoma ended up getting 7", so it made it quite a bit further north than anyone was thinking. Those were some steady snow bands.

[Deweydog]

Models tend to underdo precip if anything in these situations, so it could benefit more people.

 

It was a ways back, but I remember the 1998 storm overachieving quite a bunch in the region. Computer models sucked back then, but they showed a spotty little event for southern WA and didn't show any snow making it too far north of Portland. Tacoma ended up getting 7", so it made it quite a bit further north than anyone was thinking. Those were some steady snow bands.

 

I remember the amount of frontogenesis (of course I had no idea that term existed back then) was completely underdone especially early in the event.  That was definitely a unique set up, as is this one.  

[luvssnow_spokane]

Who care what it shows for this week???

 

Its already happening.

 

The screaming message from that image is that it will turn mild and wet very soon here.

yep, back to typical PNW winter WEATHER... gotta luv our one day of snow out 365.

[Deweydog]

yep, back to typical PNW winter WEATHER... gotta luv our one day or snow out 365.

 

[snow maniac]

just got a call from my brother in Bremerton and they are getting some light snow, and just heard Belfair is seeing some flurries now.

[BLI snowman]

This will be a good test for the models.  Any guess on which one is first with the correct solution?

 

I don't think anything correct-ish will get fully established until 24 or so hours out at the earliest. There's just a lot of moving parts with a setup like this, and every small amount of jet suppression can make a difference. HRRR model did the best with the December snow events, so I'd say look for it to be less out to lunch than the NAM/GFS duo.

 

What's interesting is how fused together the Saturday storm now looks with the Thursday/Friday conglomeration down south. Not nearly as well defined a gap between the two now, with low and mid level moisture advection increasing dramatically through the day on Friday across the region.

[Deweydog]

This will be a good test for the models.  Any guess on which one is first with the correct solution?

 

Well, none of them did particularly well with today's "surprise" moisture.  

[Deweydog]

I wonder how many times we've seen an Arctic outbreak in the PNW while 500mb heights are sub-520dm over Anchorage.

 

Teleconnections be damned!  

 

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F18%2Fgfs_namer_066_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=500_vort_ht&fhr=066&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

[Snow]

Well, none of them did particularly well with today's "surprise" moisture.  

 

This will be a good test for the models.  Any guess on which one is first with the correct solution?

 

For Winter. GFS at 1 day out. GFS/ECMWF combo at two days out. ECMWF for 3 days out.

 

http://www.intelligentutility.com/blog/14/01/weather-model-differences-between-gfs-american-and-ecmwf-european?quicktabs_4=1

[Dadio]

I'll see a low of 8 or 9 F before it's all set and done. I prefer snow during the day then night am I the only one ?

For sure. It is much more fun to watch the snow fall.

[Bryant]

I'm not sure if this was posted earlier or not, but North Sound looks to do pretty well before the change over

 

[FroYoBro]

East wind gust of 33 at PDX. Getting 15 mph wind here.

 

IT'S HAPPENING GUYS. 

[TT-SEA]

I'm not sure if this was posted earlier or not, but North Sound looks to do pretty well before the change over

 

 

 

I am thinking Bellingham might do well and hang onto NE flow longer than expected.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not to cold out.

[Snow]

I'm not sure if this was posted earlier or not, but North Sound looks to do pretty well before the change over

 

 

Thats a foot in Vancouver BC!

[BLI snowman]

I am thinking Bellingham might do well and hang onto NE flow longer than expected.

 

We look like a good bet to stay snow until midday Sunday at the earliest. Most models have shown us getting around 3-4" prior to that, but they've also dramatically reduced the southerly gradients here so it looks like another gradual warmup like the one we had after the 12/20 event.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I am proud to say I am having an epic snow flurry here in Bonney Lake. It kind of fits our epic winter we've had so far. Amazing!

[brody]

Not to cold out.

Not brutal you say?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Not brutal you say?

I kept my doors open all day at my repair shop and it wasn't that bad.

[Skagit Weather]

I'm not sure if this was posted earlier or not, but North Sound looks to do pretty well before the change over

 

Shows 3 inches for here which sounds great! That would make two 3"+ events up here this winter which is better than nothing and there is always a chance that we get more snow as the Euro tends to under-forecast precipitation.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Going to get the cars chained up for this weekend tonight.

[Bryant]

I am thinking Bellingham might do well and hang onto NE flow longer than expected.

As already mentioned, could definitely be similar to the December event. Ferndale/Blaine area did amazing. I never really know what to think in these situations.

[Skagit Weather]

Hit 35F here today as the sun in the early afternoon around 11 a.m. warmed it up pretty quickly. When the clouds moved back in it dropped back to around freezing. Radar is interesting to look at. In the central to south sound the precipitation is moving in directly opposite directions only about 30 miles apart. Not sure I have seen that before.

[TT-SEA]

I kept my doors open all day at my repair shop and it wasn't that bad.

 

How dare you say that??

 

Completely offensive!    I am very angry right now.

 

And be prepared... tomorrow will be sunny but its going to be 3 degrees colder.    Tomorrow is going to be brutal.     

 

(it WILL be 3 degrees cooler since the GFS MOS has been dead on)

[TT-SEA]

Going to get the cars chained up for this weekend tonight.

 

And not drive them until this weekend?    You must have lots of cars.