February 2014 in the PNW

[Guest Winterdog]

MM5 is out to lunch.

With Steve Pool I suspect.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

With Steve Pool I suspect.

Steve pool is crazy. I wish they would fire him. He's also ugly imo.

[seattleweatherguy]

hey at least winter isnt over yet.

[bainbridgekid]

Steve pool is crazy. I wish they would fire him. He's also ugly imo.

Seriously? Come on man . . .

[seattleweatherguy]

maybe mm5 is just being conservative.

[GHweatherChris]

maybe mm5 is just being conservative.

It does not even show precip of any kind Saturday.

[brody]

Radar is just weird to say the least and with that nice little vort max earlier this am and today ( albeit weak ) makes me wonder if the models just cant handle the progression of the pattern right now.

 

Clouds are likely not going to dissipate much tonight and wind is decreasing at least here at my place so I  think we may just have to wait and see what happens.

 

Showers moving west through the strait

 

Showers in the south sound moving SW to NE 

 

And NOW precip streaming into the coast from the NW

 

WTF?

[westiztehbest]

I'd buy that for a dollar.

 

[Snowman Josh]

Radar is just weird to say the least and with that nice little vort max earlier this am and today ( albeit weak ) makes me wonder if the models just cant handle the progression of the pattern right now.

 

Clouds are likely not going to dissipate much tonight and wind is decreasing at least here at my place so I  think we may just have to wait and see what happens.

 

Showers moving west through the strait, showers

 

Showers in the south sound moving SW to NE 

 

And NOW precip streaming into the coast from the NW

 

WTF?

Seriously. It's almost laughable that all meteos had us clear and sunny all week. Now we get some surprise snow showers on Tuesday and an impending snowstorm for the Willamette valley on Thursday?

 

I would say the models are 100% confused and we are much better off using the GOLU model at this point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[Guest Winterdog]

Radar is just weird to say the least and with that nice little vort max earlier this am and today ( albeit weak ) makes me wonder if the models just cant handle the progression of the pattern right now.

 

Clouds are likely not going to dissipate much tonight and wind is decreasing at least here at my place so I  think we may just have to wait and see what happens.

 

Showers moving west through the strait, showers

 

Showers in the south sound moving SW to NE 

 

And NOW precip streaming into the coast from the NW

 

WTF?

I think the clouds are going to be with us all night long up here and hold the temps up considerably.  It is warmer here now than it has been the last two nights at this time.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At this point I have no idea what is going on!

[westiztehbest]

The Euro weeklies are definitely looking good for round 2 later this month aren't they.

[Snowman Josh]

I think the clouds are going to be with us all night long up here and hold the temps up considerably.  It is warmer here now than it has been the last two nights at this time.

Ya, but they should be broken up before daybreak and will surely bottom out for a couple hours.

[Snow]

OOZ GFS Ensembles: Huge variation for temps and precip, it's even guessing at this point.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Portland_Oregon_USA_ens.png

[TT-SEA]

Seriously. It's almost laughable that all meteos had us clear and sunny all week. Now we get some surprise snow showers on Tuesday and an impending snowstorm for the Willamette valley on Thursday?

 

I would say the models are 100% confused and we are much better off using the GOLU model at this point.

 

 

The ECMWF showed clouds and very light precip today for about the last 5 days.   Jim and I were talking about it late last week even.

 

Nobody should be surprised if they looked at the ECMWF maps even once in that time.

 

The clouds will clear tonight and the next 3 days will be mostly sunny up here.   The ECMWF shows it.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The modelling of this Arctic blast has changed a lot over the last few days, hard to believe it won't change a lot over the next few days as well. Looking at the satellite over the Pacific right now there are some pretty big factors that are going to throw uncertainty into the Friday-Monday period. There's a stream of moisture working its way up from Hawaii from the SW colliding with increasing offshore flow and Arctic air to its north. Favourable conditions for cyclogenesis? This weekend could catch a lot of people outside the weather community by complete surprise. The evolution of this pattern has been bizarre, even for "backdoor" events.

[Snow]

Snow for Thursday at PDX on the OOZ ECMWF!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like it has begun to flurry again. The radar is pretty odd. I have echoes moving toward me from the SW and the NW.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Do that.  Just once.

[pscz1140]

The modelling of this Arctic blast has changed a lot over the last few days, hard to believe it won't change a lot over the next few days as well. Looking at the satellite over the Pacific right now there are some pretty big factors that are going to throw uncertainty into the Friday-Monday period. There's a stream of moisture working its way up from Hawaii from the SW colliding with increasing offshore flow and Arctic air to its north. Favourable conditions for cyclogenesis? This weekend could catch a lot of people outside the weather community by complete surprise. The evolution of this pattern has been bizarre, even for "backdoor" events.

 

Totally agree. The temperature dip on the essembles a few days from now is also a feature which wasn't there before. Cray cray.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z EURO Different handling of the trough digs it much further west than previous runs. Note the ridge really backs offshore. Could be very snowy PDX/Willamette Valley THU-FRI

[Snowman Josh]

The ECMWF showed clouds and very light precip today for about the last 5 days.   Jim and I were talking about it late last week even.

 

Nobody should be surprised if they looked at the ECMWF maps even once in that time.

 

The clouds will clear tonight and the next 3 days will be mostly sunny up here.   The ECMWF shows it.

If the next 3 days are sunny I will eat my hat, not gonna happen.

[paulb/eugene]

Euro 00z has 5.9″ snow in EUG, 4.8 in Corvallis, 4.5 SLE, 2.5 PDX

[Snowman Josh]

00z EURO Different handling of the trough digs it much further west than previous runs. Note the ridge really backs offshore. [/size]

Could be very snowy PDX/Willamette Valley THU-FRI

 

Also looks like a good chance of a reload developing by day 7.

[bainbridgekid]

Euro 00z has 5.9″ snow in EUG, 4.8 in Corvallis, 4.5 SLE, 2.5 PDX

Throughout the run of just through Friday?

[paulb/eugene]

Throughout the run of just through Friday?

Through 96h

[Snow]

Euro 00z has 5.9″ snow in EUG, 4.8 in Corvallis, 4.5 SLE, 2.5 PDX

 

That's good, the ECMWF tends to underestimate the amount of moisture. Add 1 to 2 inches to these totals.

[Guest Monty67]

The Euro weeklies are definitely looking good for round 2 later this month aren't they.

Could someone post the weeklies. I don't know why but I have been feeling a late February event. I think We go wet and zonal for awhile before the ridge rebuilds later in the month. Hopefully far enough off shore.

[Skagit Weather]

It is always amazing how crazy the models go when we get some arctic air in here. They never seem to warm it up correctly or give the correct precipitation or really get anything right. It is times like these that some of our least dependable models (like the NAM in 2012) lead the way. Whatever happens I just want some snow. The WRF is really depressing up here and completely different than the 12z so I hope it crashes and gets buried under a few feet of snow. PDX deserves snow after what has happened to them the last few years, but when it is getting buried under a foot of snow I really hope the weather gods can send a few inches up here.

[Deweydog]

It is always amazing how crazy the models go when we get some arctic air in here. They never seem to warm it up correctly or give the correct precipitation or really get anything right. It is times like these that some of our least dependable models (like the NAM in 2012) lead the way. Whatever happens I just want some snow. The WRF is really depressing up here and completely different than the 12z so I hope it crashes and gets buried under a few feet of snow. PDX deserves snow after what has happened to them the last few years, but when it is getting buried under a foot of snow I really hope the weather gods can send a few inches up here.

 

So what you're saying is you want it to snow?  

 

Weird.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

It is always amazing how crazy the models go when we get some arctic air in here. They never seem to warm it up correctly or give the correct precipitation or really get anything right. It is times like these that some of our least dependable models (like the NAM in 2012) lead the way. Whatever happens I just want some snow. The WRF is really depressing up here and completely different than the 12z so I hope it crashes and gets buried under a few feet of snow. PDX deserves snow after what has happened to them the last few years, but when it is getting buried under a foot of snow I really hope the weather gods can send a few inches up here.

The problem is the models have limited experience with Arctic outbreaks in the PNW.  They happen--but it's not like a summer day where there's a lot of experience to draw from.

[epiceast]

WRF is a mesoscale model, you can't trust it when it shifts the whole storm by 200 miles.

[HighlandExperience]

Steve pool is crazy. I wish they would fire him. He's also ugly imo.

 

He is much better looking than Rich Marriot.

[Weather101]

So no snow this weekend up here.... Crazy..

[Guest Monty67]

Looks dry.

[bainbridgekid]

Euro is totally dry North of Olympia through Saturday evening . . . 

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014020500/nw/ecmwf_24_precip_nw_18.png

[Deweydog]

The problem is the models have limited experience with Arctic outbreaks in the PNW.  They happen--but it's not like a summer day where there's a lot of experience to draw from.

 

It has nothing to do with the limited experience.  Arctic outbreaks in this part of the country are heavily influenced by terrain and other mesoscale features.  They're tough to model, and for the most part they do fairly well.  In this case, the pattern is about as convoluted as possible when it comes to Arctic set ups.  

[HighlandExperience]

Euro is totally dry North of Olympia through Saturday evening . . . 

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/ecmwf/2014020500/nw/ecmwf_24_precip_nw_18.png

 

I will be mad if we just moderate slowly out of this cold. 

[Skagit Weather]

So what you're saying is you want it to snow?  

 

Weird.

I know. Absolutely crazy. I will gladly collect snow from those people who can't appreciate snow after Christmas though. Please mail it to Mount Vernon, WA when you get it and I am sure I will find it.