Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 It was a hott one. Long and luxurious. I think you're missing the point, though. The event overperformed given the air mass? Sure, kinda. Though you were referencing EUG's numbers in comparison to 1981, and the air mass was clearly warmer as you went further south this time around. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 The event overperformed given the air mass? Sure, kinda. Though you were referencing EUG's numbers in comparison to 1981, and the air mass was clearly warmer as you went further south this time around.1981 was an incredible animal from an upper level perspective. Obviously there's a decent amount of happenstance involved but this air mass was not as impressive synoptically speaking as probably dozens of events since then. It maximized itself and probably had some help. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 1981 was an incredible animal from an upper level perspective. Obviously there's a decent amount of happenstance involved but this air mass was not as impressive synoptically speaking as probably dozens of events since then. It maximized itself and probably had some help. I would suspect the incredibly dry soils and vegetation probably added 1-2 degrees. Probably made the difference between upper 90s and 100 on two of Eugene's 100 degree days. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Nary. Shouldn't you be doing something right about now??? 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Shouldn't you be doing something right about now??? Backdating a prenup? 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 She gets the weather forum.It'll be interesting to see what a woman's touch will do in a room full of weenies. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 1981 was an incredible animal from an upper level perspective. Obviously there's a decent amount of happenstance involved but this air mass was not as impressive synoptically speaking as probably dozens of events since then. It maximized itself and probably had some help. Duh. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Duh.You found the point! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 A true moral quagmire. Do we root for the sticky wetness, which is the essence of beauty, or do we root for the comparative comfort of plankton massacring, forest fire inducing sub 50 dewpoints? #humiditysavesI think it's high time you stop fooling yourself and just move to Houston. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 You found the point! Do you see mine? You were comparing EUG's 2015 numbers to 1981's and the two air masses...but of course, most of the PNW was quite a bit hotter in 1981. This event certainly over-performed given the air mass at EUG, but this was also a much more south oriented event. Comparing this event to 1981 is definitely an apples/oranges thing, and not just because 1981 was much more impressive on every level. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 She gets the weather forum. A keeper for sure. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 I can vouch for that. I'm in the hills just southwest of Eugene. The grass is brown; trees are getting dull and limp. Looks like Redding out there. No one in this neighborhood can remember it ever being so parched The brown grass is not uncommon for this time of year, but the trees and brush are shockingly dried out. I've lived here pretty much all my life. I'd say the only summers that can compare in any way that I can remember are 1992 and 2009. Last summer had sustained heat, but not even close in the extreme heat category. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Do you see mine? You were comparing EUG's 2015 numbers to 1981's and the two air masses...but of course, most of the PNW was quite a bit hotter in 1981. This event certainly over-performed given the air mass at EUG, but this was also a much further south oriented event. Comparing this event to 1981 is definitely an apples/oranges thing, and not just because 1981 was much more impressive on every level.You're overthinking it. It's been 34 years since Eugene has had four consecutive 100 degree days. The tie-in to 1981 is primarily the fact it was the last time it happened and this air mass wasn't even in the ballpark of that beast synoptically speaking. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 I think it's high time you stop fooling yourself and just move to Houston. It's gorgeous down there. More arctic outbreaks, too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 It's gorgeous down there. More arctic outbreaks, too.Sounds like you're ready. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 The brown grass is not uncommon for this time of year, but the trees and brush are shockingly dried out. I've lived here pretty much all my life. I'd say the only summers that can compare in any way that I can remember are 1992 and 2009. Last summer had sustained heat, but not even close in the extreme heat category.Stop worrying about the heat buddy. CFS says it will be gone within the next eight months. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 It is 86.7 degrees in my room. Help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Why do you hate science?In his defense the CFS is garbage for the most part. The only way I get anything out of it is looking at the 10-day average of the runs for the monthly forecasts (so 40 runs). 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Sounds like you're ready. I'd expect a major exodus out of the region in upcoming years as our water supply dwindles and we become increasingly desert-like. Texas will steal a lot of our population, as it gradually becomes a more fertile, pristine location and as the 2010s +PDO regime spells death to the PNW we once knew and loved. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 The brown grass is not uncommon for this time of year, but the trees and brush are shockingly dried out. I've lived here pretty much all my life. I'd say the only summers that can compare in any way that I can remember are 1992 and 2009. Last summer had sustained heat, but not even close in the extreme heat category. The last two summers suggest to me at least more of a Mediterranean climate in the Willamette Valley versus the marine climate I grew up with in Olympia area. We may be turning into a slightly more continental version of Bordeaux, France...similar winters and slightly warmer summers. Maybe our 2071-2100 normals at PDX will be 50/39 in January and 85/61 in July. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 I'd expect a major exodus out of the region in upcoming years as our water supply dwindles and we become increasingly desert-like. Texas will steal a lot of our population, as it gradually becomes a more fertile, pristine location and as the 2010s +PDO regime spells death to the PNW we once knew and loved. However vast areas suitable for dry farming may open up across the north slope of Alaska. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 The last two summers suggest to me at least more of a Mediterranean climate in the Willamette Valley versus the marine climate I grew up with in Olympia area. We may be turning into a slightly more continental version of Bordeaux, France...similar winters and slightly warmer summers. Maybe our 2071-2100 normals at PDX will be 50/39 in January and 85/61 in July.Embrace the many joys of global warming! It would be funny if by some fluke the PNW got colder again over the next 50-100 years. If not just to crush the French Riviera fantasies held by some. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Embrace the many joys of global warming! It would be funny if by some fluke the PNW got colder again over the next 50-100 years. If not just to crush the French Riviera fantasies held by some. I don't think he was serious. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Embrace the many joys of global warming! It would be funny if by some fluke the PNW got colder again over the next 50-100 years. If not just to crush the French Riviera fantasies held by some.It would be a boon to Oregon viticulture. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 It is 86.7 degrees in my room. Help.Wow! Perhaps a good night to sleep under the stars! A cool 71 in our house. The heat pump has very much been a help this year! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 I don't think he was serious. My 2071-2100 predictions were purely tongue-in-cheek. I like warm summers so personally I say bring on the Mediterranean climate! Will be sad to see the Doug firs, sitka spruce and western hemlock be relegated to the immediate coast and higher windward elevations of the Cascades though. Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 My 2071-2100 predictions were purely tongue-in-cheek. I like warm summers so personally I say bring on the Mediterranean climate! Will be sad to see the Doug firs, sitka spruce and western hemlock be relegated to the immediate coast and higher windward elevations of the Cascades though. As if this opinion hasn't already been made abundantly clear in every forecast you've ever made ever. I can't wait until we get a few really nasty, cloudy ones to send you all back into hiding or down to California. It will happen, our long term transition to Napa Valley notwithstanding. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 I don't think he was serious. A 3-4 degree jump in our means by century's end isn't too outlandish if you subscribe to mainstream science's predictions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 As if this opinion hasn't already been made abundantly clear in every forecast you've ever made ever. I can't wait until we get a few really nasty, cloudy ones to send you all back into hiding or down to California. It will happen, our long term transition to Napa Valley notwithstanding.Trying to think when the last time I personally made a forecast on here...anyway hopefully some cold ones this winter. I enjoy a high in the 20s as much as anyone else who suffered through cold weather deprivation during their formative years. 8 years living in ID/UT sated my appetite some. Feb 2014 was a fun experience. I enjoy cold winters and warm summers, basically four seasons. The closer to four seasons the PNW has, the happier I am. In other news, finally an extended period of near normal temps coming up? Looks like a weak but persistent mean trough over the PNW through the 6-10. 2 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 As if this opinion hasn't already been made abundantly clear in every forecast you've ever made ever. I can't wait until we get a few really nasty, cloudy ones to send you all back into hiding or down to California. It will happen, our long term transition to Napa Valley notwithstanding. The palm trees are coming and likely here to stay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 The palm trees are coming and likely here to stay. That'll scare him! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Some serious consensus warm bias next week Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 That'll scare him! Them's the breaks. The last vestiges of 20th century cold that we saw a couple years ago could be a story you tell your great grandchildren about with frenzied delight in the future. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 2 pages just for Aug 1st. Impressive. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Some serious consensus warm bias next week I don't understand why you would include TWC/Accuweather/the iPhone weather app/etc in that consensus forecast when those entities essentially just regurgitate raw output from the models. Seems redundant. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 I think we're all forgetting that WeatherPhil's mini-ice age is scheduled to hit any year now. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 I think we're all forgetting that WeatherPhil's mini-ice age is scheduled to hit any year now. It started in 2013. Coincidentally, the same time the PNW summer climate turned French Riviera. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IbrChris Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 I don't understand why you would include TWC/Accuweather/the iPhone weather app/etc in that consensus forecast when those entities essentially just regurgitate raw output from the models. Seems redundant.Each source has a different algorithm, this is why they disagree...in this case it's obvious some Europe-based vendors like MeteoGroup, met.no and Foreca weight the Euro higher than the GFS and CMC. I should note that the GFS, GFS-ENS and CMC values I use are all bias-corrected rather than raw output. Other vendors like Switzerland-based MeteoBlue seem to favor different model output on different days (I haven't found a pattern). TWC and Accuweather both have very different algorithms. I treat them as ensemble members for the purpose of deriving a consensus forecast. Various vendors/models will have their flaws, biases etc but generally not all will have the same flaws. Some of the vendors are actually more accurate on average than NWS, see http://www.forecastadvisor.com/Oregon/Portland/97218/ Indeed redundancy is the point if you're referring to number of forecasts. I assume you understand the reasoning behind an ensemble. In this case rather than a perturbation of initial conditions in a model I am using the varying algorithms of vendors and models to build a consensus. Over time it will perform better on average than any single member. 1 Quote The Pacific Northwest: Where storms go to die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 I think we're all forgetting that WeatherPhil's mini-ice age is scheduled to hit any year now.Just try to avoid suicide for the next 8-12 months if you can. We'll be back in a Niña/-AAM integral biased pattern by 2016-17. The longer term cooling is technically already showing up in the IR/LW budget. Could be that the big Niño/Smax forcing on poleward AAM export is what will finish the equilibration process that started in 2009-2010. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted August 2, 2015 Report Share Posted August 2, 2015 Smokey, high cloud, hazy sun, 68 degrees. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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