September 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[TT-SEA]

For Saturday?? From what I always saw was a dry day west of the Cascades. Either way, National Weather Service and media missed this one.

 

Yep... for Saturday afternoon. Every run since at least Monday. Everyone should pay attention.

[FroYoBro]

I have actually really enjoyed this cooler weather the past few days. Perfect weather for the start of college football today. Oops, I mean fall ball. 

[TT-SEA]

Sure do like the 18Z GFS.

[TT-SEA]

I would agree with you on that. Warm dry days, brisk nights, perfect for leaves.

Anything but more rain. We have enough for now.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like some good lightning over Seattle.   

[TT-SEA]

About to start dumping rain here.   At least most of the day was very pleasant with appreciable sun.

 

Almost had an actual dry day but now its going to end very wet.   9th day in a row with rain here... 3 more coming.  Should have been a dry day with the front still offshore but in this pattern it pretty much has to rain at some point each day here.

 

12 consecutive days with rain is on the high end for this time of year.   Usually means drier weather is on the way.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

High of only 66 at PDX today. A -12 departure. First sub-70 day since June 3rd.

[TT-SEA]

Torrential rain and thunder here.

[Black Hole]

Worth mentioning that the Euro has been wildly different in the 6-10 day range the last several runs. The 00z had a huge trough over us from hour 192 on.

 

But if any solution will verify it will likely be the stain pattern the 12z is showing. Because we can't stay cool for more than ten days at a time anymore.

Ensembles have shown a very wide range of possibilities. For example the GFS 12z ensembles had a difference of 23C for one day for me between the warmest and coldest members. Anything could happen, but my bet is on more ridging before another trough hits near the 20th.

[Phil]

It should be noted that IO/Indonesian forcing will likely be on the wane from late September into October, in favor of enhanced WPAC forcing under a Niño-dominated low frequency base state.

 

That alone strongly favors a return to western ridging sometime in late September or October, with troughing centered over the Aleutians/NPAC.

[TT-SEA]

The calm before the storm late this afternoon...

 

 

And then the storm...

 

[bainbridgekid]

Totally dry day here in Mountlake Terrace but I heard quite a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon from the storm over Seattle.

[stuffradio]

The calm before the storm late this afternoon...

 

 

And then the storm...

 

Dogs in pictures always means rain storms.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

A couple recent CFS ensembles have shown ENSO already heading into Nina territory by late next spring. This current regime shall pass. 

[Jesse]

High of only 66 at PDX today. A -12 departure. First sub-70 day since June 3rd.

They had a high of 68 on Thursday.

[Jesse]

It should be noted that IO/Indonesian forcing will likely be on the wane from late September into October, in favor of enhanced WPAC forcing under a Niño-dominated low frequency base state.

 

That alone strongly favors a return to western ridging sometime in late September or October, with troughing centered over the Aleutians/NPAC.

Bull. What doesn't favor western ridging?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

They had a high of 68 on Thursday.

 

Missed that one. Thought they had snuck in a 70. 

[stuffradio]

A couple recent CFS ensembles have shown ENSO already heading into Nina territory by late next spring. This current regime shall pass. 

I don't know where they are looking, but I'm seeing articles about Australian scientists predicting a major Nina by June 2016.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I don't know where they are looking, but I'm seeing articles about Australian scientists predicting a major Nina by June 2016.

 

I am expecting we will move into a multi-year Nina from this Nino. 

[Jesse]

Missed that one. Thought they had snuck in a 70.

I think they also had a 69 degree high at some point in late-July.

[TT-SEA]

I am expecting we will move into a multi-year Nina from this Nino.

Some ENSO neutral years would be nice. I loved 2013-14.

[stuffradio]

Some ENSO neutral years would be nice. I loved 2013-14.

The Jan 2012 cold snap was pretty nice. In the first week of the semester, I predicted a cold snap/snow would cancel classes the next week. That's exactly what happened. I think Jan 2012 was the last time I had a foot or more of snow on the ground, before that I think it was 2008 but I don't remember for sure. 2008 is the last time I had multiple feet on the ground. I think I had up to around 4 feet of snow at once in 2008. It could have been closer to 3.5 feet though.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some ENSO neutral years would be nice. I loved 2013-14

 

I liked the arctic outbreaks. 

 

I could go for some cold zonal flow though. 

[TT-SEA]

Just looked closer at 1997-98.

 

Decent winter with plenty of breaks in the rain... looks like some offshore flow periods.   

 

A little slow start in the spring... but the summer of 1998 was pretty good.

 

And then we have the winter of 1998-99.    I hear natives talk with disgust about that winter to this day.

[stuffradio]

Just looked closer at 1997-98.

 

Decent winter with plenty of breaks in the rain... looks like some offshore flow periods.   

 

A little slow start in the spring... but the summer of 1998 was pretty good.

 

And then we have the winter of 1998-99.    I hear natives talk with disgust about that winter to this day.

Wow, Abbotsford actually had temps below 32 F in April 1999. We also got almost an inch in March 1999, and 4-5" of snow in Feb 1999. We got slightly less than a foot in December 1998.

 

In April '97, Abbotsford dropped below 32 F. In March '97 we got about 2" of snow. There was a mini cold snap in November '97 and a trace of snow and a couple mini cold snaps in December '97 with less than an inch of snow.

[TT-SEA]

Wow, Abbotsford actually had temps below 32 F in April 1999. We also got almost an inch in March 1999, and 4-5" of snow in Feb 1999. We got slightly less than a foot in December 1998.

 

In April '97, Abbotsford dropped below 32 F. In March '97 we got about 2" of snow. There was a mini cold snap in November '97 and a trace of snow and a couple mini cold snaps in December '97 with less than an inch of snow.

They talk about the never-ending rain of 1998-99.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The winter of 98-99' had a massive snowpack in the Cascades... I went camping in the Three Sisters Wilderness in late July 99' and there was still solid 6-8' snowpack when typically it is completely melted out by then. 

[bainbridgekid]

The winter of 98-99' had a massive snowpack in the Cascades... I went camping in the Three Sisters Wilderness in late July 99' and there was still solid 6-8' snowpack when typically it is completely melted out by then.

That's when the world record 1,140 inches fell at Baker.

[TT-SEA]

That's when the world record 1,140 inches fell at Baker.

People mention that more than citing the exact year. They usually say there was a horrible winter in the late 90s when it never stopped raining and Mt Baker set the world record. I know what year they mean.

[BLI snowman]

Just looked closer at 1997-98.

 

Decent winter with plenty of breaks in the rain... looks like some offshore flow periods.   

 

A little slow start in the spring... but the summer of 1998 was pretty good.

 

And then we have the winter of 1998-99.    I hear natives talk with disgust about that winter to this day.

 

Otis, OR actually set a national record for consecutive days of measurable rain in 1997-98 with 79. That was a very consistently rainy season, especially from mid January onwards and especially from Olympia south. In fact, the entire 1995-1999 period was insanely wet across most of the region. You would have been whining mercilessly.

[TT-SEA]

Otis, OR actually set a national record for consecutive days of measurable rain in 1997-98 with 79. That was a very consistently rainy season, especially from mid January onwards and especially from Olympia south. In fact, the entire 1995-1999 period was insanely wet across most of the region. You would have been whining mercilessly.

2010 and 2011 were pretty bad. The summers of 1997 and 1998 were not bad at all. Summer of 1999 looked depressing.

[TT-SEA]

Love the 0Z Canadian.

[TT-SEA]

Assuming the summer of 2017 will be a crapfest. One that leaves you feeling like there are no seasons here. Just one long damp winter. We should plan a bunch of trips that year. Maybe take a sabbatical and travel the country with the kids.

[BLI snowman]

2010 and 2011 were pretty bad. The summers of 1997 and 1998 were not bad at all. Summer of 1999 looked depressing.

 

August 1999 had perhaps the most impressive lightning event in memory for most of the Seattle area. Like most La Nina years, the first half of summer and spring were pretty hard to stomach that year. And the winter of 1998-99 was indeed probably the gloomiest that I've experienced in this region. Only sunshine that I can remember came with the arctic event. 

[stuffradio]

Assuming the summer of 2017 will be a crapfest. One that leaves you feeling like there are no seasons here. Just one long damp winter. We should plan a bunch of trips that year. Maybe take a sabbatical and travel the country with the kids.

Are you starting a fundraiser for all of us for Hawaii 2017?

[Guest Winterdog]

I just noticed I had my first sub 40F reading this morning (39.8F).  Last one was early May.  Kinda makes the hair on my back bristle with excitement.

[TT-SEA]

Are you starting a fundraiser for all of us for Hawaii 2017?

 

 

Hawaii is a good winter trip.    A crappy summer here might mean we might spent lots of time in Chelan or maybe extend our annual MN trip.   Or maybe do a road trip through the West.

 

I hate leaving here at all in summers like 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015.   This is paradise.     The bad summers seem to come every 5-10 years.

 

I have no problem leaving from November - March of any year.

[TT-SEA]

Picked up almost an inch of rain this evening... did not expect that much.   It was just pounding on the roof after dark for a long time.   Odd timing for a c-zone with the next front pushing in at the same time.     Guessing most places along the I-90 corridor from Lake Washington to the Cascades picked up significant rain.   It was an intense and well-defined c-zone.

[Jesse]

00z GFS and its ensembles give hope that the upcoming ridging may be short lived.

[TT-SEA]

Central BC coast is going to get some serious rain thanks to the building ridge.    Looks like a pineapple express event later this coming week up there.