TT-SEA Posted September 5, 2015 Report Share Posted September 5, 2015 For Saturday?? From what I always saw was a dry day west of the Cascades. Either way, National Weather Service and media missed this one. Yep... for Saturday afternoon. Every run since at least Monday. Everyone should pay attention. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted September 5, 2015 Report Share Posted September 5, 2015 I have actually really enjoyed this cooler weather the past few days. Perfect weather for the start of college football today. Oops, I mean fall ball. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 5, 2015 Report Share Posted September 5, 2015 Sure do like the 18Z GFS. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 I would agree with you on that. Warm dry days, brisk nights, perfect for leaves.Anything but more rain. We have enough for now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Looks like some good lightning over Seattle. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 About to start dumping rain here. At least most of the day was very pleasant with appreciable sun. Almost had an actual dry day but now its going to end very wet. 9th day in a row with rain here... 3 more coming. Should have been a dry day with the front still offshore but in this pattern it pretty much has to rain at some point each day here. 12 consecutive days with rain is on the high end for this time of year. Usually means drier weather is on the way. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 High of only 66 at PDX today. A -12 departure. First sub-70 day since June 3rd. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Torrential rain and thunder here. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Black Hole Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Worth mentioning that the Euro has been wildly different in the 6-10 day range the last several runs. The 00z had a huge trough over us from hour 192 on. But if any solution will verify it will likely be the stain pattern the 12z is showing. Because we can't stay cool for more than ten days at a time anymore.Ensembles have shown a very wide range of possibilities. For example the GFS 12z ensembles had a difference of 23C for one day for me between the warmest and coldest members. Anything could happen, but my bet is on more ridging before another trough hits near the 20th. Quote Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2") Total Ice (0.2") Coldest Low: 1F Coldest High: 5F Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 It should be noted that IO/Indonesian forcing will likely be on the wane from late September into October, in favor of enhanced WPAC forcing under a Niño-dominated low frequency base state. That alone strongly favors a return to western ridging sometime in late September or October, with troughing centered over the Aleutians/NPAC. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 The calm before the storm late this afternoon... And then the storm... Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Totally dry day here in Mountlake Terrace but I heard quite a few rumbles of thunder this afternoon from the storm over Seattle. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 The calm before the storm late this afternoon... And then the storm... Dogs in pictures always means rain storms. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 A couple recent CFS ensembles have shown ENSO already heading into Nina territory by late next spring. This current regime shall pass. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 High of only 66 at PDX today. A -12 departure. First sub-70 day since June 3rd.They had a high of 68 on Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 It should be noted that IO/Indonesian forcing will likely be on the wane from late September into October, in favor of enhanced WPAC forcing under a Niño-dominated low frequency base state. That alone strongly favors a return to western ridging sometime in late September or October, with troughing centered over the Aleutians/NPAC.Bull. What doesn't favor western ridging? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 They had a high of 68 on Thursday. Missed that one. Thought they had snuck in a 70. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 A couple recent CFS ensembles have shown ENSO already heading into Nina territory by late next spring. This current regime shall pass. I don't know where they are looking, but I'm seeing articles about Australian scientists predicting a major Nina by June 2016. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 I don't know where they are looking, but I'm seeing articles about Australian scientists predicting a major Nina by June 2016. I am expecting we will move into a multi-year Nina from this Nino. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Missed that one. Thought they had snuck in a 70.I think they also had a 69 degree high at some point in late-July. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 I am expecting we will move into a multi-year Nina from this Nino.Some ENSO neutral years would be nice. I loved 2013-14. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Some ENSO neutral years would be nice. I loved 2013-14.The Jan 2012 cold snap was pretty nice. In the first week of the semester, I predicted a cold snap/snow would cancel classes the next week. That's exactly what happened. I think Jan 2012 was the last time I had a foot or more of snow on the ground, before that I think it was 2008 but I don't remember for sure. 2008 is the last time I had multiple feet on the ground. I think I had up to around 4 feet of snow at once in 2008. It could have been closer to 3.5 feet though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Some ENSO neutral years would be nice. I loved 2013-14 I liked the arctic outbreaks. I could go for some cold zonal flow though. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Just looked closer at 1997-98. Decent winter with plenty of breaks in the rain... looks like some offshore flow periods. A little slow start in the spring... but the summer of 1998 was pretty good. And then we have the winter of 1998-99. I hear natives talk with disgust about that winter to this day. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Just looked closer at 1997-98. Decent winter with plenty of breaks in the rain... looks like some offshore flow periods. A little slow start in the spring... but the summer of 1998 was pretty good. And then we have the winter of 1998-99. I hear natives talk with disgust about that winter to this day.Wow, Abbotsford actually had temps below 32 F in April 1999. We also got almost an inch in March 1999, and 4-5" of snow in Feb 1999. We got slightly less than a foot in December 1998. In April '97, Abbotsford dropped below 32 F. In March '97 we got about 2" of snow. There was a mini cold snap in November '97 and a trace of snow and a couple mini cold snaps in December '97 with less than an inch of snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Wow, Abbotsford actually had temps below 32 F in April 1999. We also got almost an inch in March 1999, and 4-5" of snow in Feb 1999. We got slightly less than a foot in December 1998. In April '97, Abbotsford dropped below 32 F. In March '97 we got about 2" of snow. There was a mini cold snap in November '97 and a trace of snow and a couple mini cold snaps in December '97 with less than an inch of snow.They talk about the never-ending rain of 1998-99. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 The winter of 98-99' had a massive snowpack in the Cascades... I went camping in the Three Sisters Wilderness in late July 99' and there was still solid 6-8' snowpack when typically it is completely melted out by then. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 The winter of 98-99' had a massive snowpack in the Cascades... I went camping in the Three Sisters Wilderness in late July 99' and there was still solid 6-8' snowpack when typically it is completely melted out by then.That's when the world record 1,140 inches fell at Baker. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 That's when the world record 1,140 inches fell at Baker.People mention that more than citing the exact year. They usually say there was a horrible winter in the late 90s when it never stopped raining and Mt Baker set the world record. I know what year they mean. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Just looked closer at 1997-98. Decent winter with plenty of breaks in the rain... looks like some offshore flow periods. A little slow start in the spring... but the summer of 1998 was pretty good. And then we have the winter of 1998-99. I hear natives talk with disgust about that winter to this day. Otis, OR actually set a national record for consecutive days of measurable rain in 1997-98 with 79. That was a very consistently rainy season, especially from mid January onwards and especially from Olympia south. In fact, the entire 1995-1999 period was insanely wet across most of the region. You would have been whining mercilessly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Otis, OR actually set a national record for consecutive days of measurable rain in 1997-98 with 79. That was a very consistently rainy season, especially from mid January onwards and especially from Olympia south. In fact, the entire 1995-1999 period was insanely wet across most of the region. You would have been whining mercilessly.2010 and 2011 were pretty bad. The summers of 1997 and 1998 were not bad at all. Summer of 1999 looked depressing. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Love the 0Z Canadian. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Assuming the summer of 2017 will be a crapfest. One that leaves you feeling like there are no seasons here. Just one long damp winter. We should plan a bunch of trips that year. Maybe take a sabbatical and travel the country with the kids. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 2010 and 2011 were pretty bad. The summers of 1997 and 1998 were not bad at all. Summer of 1999 looked depressing. August 1999 had perhaps the most impressive lightning event in memory for most of the Seattle area. Like most La Nina years, the first half of summer and spring were pretty hard to stomach that year. And the winter of 1998-99 was indeed probably the gloomiest that I've experienced in this region. Only sunshine that I can remember came with the arctic event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Assuming the summer of 2017 will be a crapfest. One that leaves you feeling like there are no seasons here. Just one long damp winter. We should plan a bunch of trips that year. Maybe take a sabbatical and travel the country with the kids. Are you starting a fundraiser for all of us for Hawaii 2017? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Winterdog Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 I just noticed I had my first sub 40F reading this morning (39.8F). Last one was early May. Kinda makes the hair on my back bristle with excitement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Are you starting a fundraiser for all of us for Hawaii 2017? Hawaii is a good winter trip. A crappy summer here might mean we might spent lots of time in Chelan or maybe extend our annual MN trip. Or maybe do a road trip through the West. I hate leaving here at all in summers like 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015. This is paradise. The bad summers seem to come every 5-10 years. I have no problem leaving from November - March of any year. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Picked up almost an inch of rain this evening... did not expect that much. It was just pounding on the roof after dark for a long time. Odd timing for a c-zone with the next front pushing in at the same time. Guessing most places along the I-90 corridor from Lake Washington to the Cascades picked up significant rain. It was an intense and well-defined c-zone. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 00z GFS and its ensembles give hope that the upcoming ridging may be short lived. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted September 6, 2015 Report Share Posted September 6, 2015 Central BC coast is going to get some serious rain thanks to the building ridge. Looks like a pineapple express event later this coming week up there. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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