Anti Marine Layer Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 T-storm with rain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 No more thunderstorms or rain, but dewpoint is 70 F. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Next week looking very wet!. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 GFS maintains its tropical characteristics as the system crosses into California next week, not becoming extratropical until it's over Orange County. That would be wild. Pretty wide variation on GEFS but they average out to remnants inundating us. Euro screws basically everyone except Thunder98, keeping most everything off the coast. Gooooooo GFS! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Very humid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Hilary has officially formed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 4 hours ago, Thunder98 said: Next week looking very wet!. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Lol, OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL GUYS! This reminds me of the Facebook pages in the Midwest who issue their own super extreme mega weather alerts for 24" of snowfall a week before a storm. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Ensembles are in pretty good agreement with just about everything except track, and with a couple of outliers being on the less wet (but still wet) side. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Euro brings more precip than the 00Z run to SoCal, but is still in its own world in terms of track. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 6 minutes ago, IMoveALot_Weather said: Lol, OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL GUYS! This reminds me of the Facebook pages in the Midwest who issue their own super extreme mega weather alerts for 24" of snowfall a week before a storm. Kevin Martin Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LowerGarfield Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 17 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said: Welp the Euro is now fully on board with the GFS and the Canadian about this hurricane making a beeline for SoCal. Every single deterministic run of every model today since the 12z suite has shown a near direct hit, and most of them with the storm making landfall between LA and Pt Conception as a Tropical Storm or even a weak Category 1. Still highly doubtful the storm will maintain that level of wind speed by the time it gets here, but it's looking increasingly likely that most of SoCal could get get an extremely anomalous amount of rain with. Ensembles are significantly more on board as well. My favorite run was the 00z Canadian, which showed 5" of rain for San Diego and OC. How does the track compare to the 1858 hurricane or the 1939 TS? Are you all rooting for lots of rain or concerned it will buat with high winds and lightning? Quote Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA: 2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24. Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24 Days with trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel), 4/5/24 (T) First Freeze: 10/27/2023 Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24) Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24) Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Abnormal temperature spike early this morning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 3 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said: Lol, OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL GUYS! This reminds me of the Facebook pages in the Midwest who issue their own super extreme mega weather alerts for 24" of snowfall a week before a storm. Kevin Martin is still around? lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 16, 2023 Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Supercell east of Palomar Mountain right now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 16, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2023 Wow I could see an inch of rain! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 (edited) 4 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said: Lol, OFFICIALLY OFFICIAL GUYS! This reminds me of the Facebook pages in the Midwest who issue their own super extreme mega weather alerts for 24" of snowfall a week before a storm. A Watch is not official unless it is issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) or the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Edited August 17, 2023 by Dan the Weatherman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Reg said: Abnormal temperature spike early this morning. A thunderstorm passed over my area with light rain, some thunder and a few flashes of lightning here in Orange early this morning between 4 and 4:30 am. Maybe it was outflow caused by this storm that led to the temperature spike in your area. Edited August 17, 2023 by Dan the Weatherman Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan the Weatherman Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 44 minutes ago, Thunder98 said: Wow I could see an inch of rain! It is really going to be interesting to see what we ultimately get with this system. We could be looking at a repeat of Dolores from July 2015, or something even more substantial and widespread. We will just have to wait and see when the time comes and what the model guidance indicates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 HOT Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 17, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 51 minutes ago, Dan the Weatherman said: It is really going to be interesting to see what we ultimately get with this system. We could be looking at a repeat of Dolores from July 2015, or something even more substantial and widespread. We will just have to wait and see when the time comes and what the model guidance indicates. I have already seen way more rain this summer than summer 2015. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roadtonowhere08 Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 DUDE!!! It has been a while since I looked up weather and I get this: And then I come here to see what you guys are posting. I am so ready for whatever comes!!! Finally some interesting and really rare weather. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 Probably no more surprise rain tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 17, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said: Probably no more surprise rain tonight. You might instead get a visit from the marine layer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 4 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said: A Watch is not official unless it is issued by the National Weather Service (NWS) or the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Yes, correct. That's what I was getting at. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 Lol, even SGX is saying to not listen to BS Quote Tropical Storm Hilary is about 750 miles southeast of the southern tip of Baja California Sur. Hilary is forecast to move up the west coast of Baja over the next 5 days. An increase in moisture from this storm is expected to bring widespread heavy rain. Another concern is areas of strong, gusty, easterly winds Sunday and Monday. This does have the potential to be a very high impact event for portions of Southern California. There is still a degree of uncertainty in the forecast and more details will come on exact timing, location, and magnitude of impacts in the coming days. Please follow official weather sources like weather.gov/sandiego, weather.gov/losangeles, and hurricanes.gov for the latest forecast information. For Tuesday through the end of next week, a significant amount of moisture is expected to linger in southern California. This will leave the door open for afternoon convection through the forecast period. Global ensembles have precipitable water values gradually decreasing by the weekend of the 26th. The moisture in the air will help keep day time high temperatures well below seasonal averages, but overnight temperatures will remain elevated. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 5 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said: A thunderstorm passed over my area with light rain, some thunder and a few flashes of lightning here in Orange early this morning between 4 and 4:30 am. Maybe it was outflow caused by this storm that led to the temperature spike in your area. Possibly. There was a sudden wind spike (15mph) during that time as well, and the humidity dipped for a while. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AquariusRadar Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 A big patch of dry air ahead of Hilary. The models are optimistic. There is a narrow gap between the continental high over Texas and the Pacific high off SoCal. The models must think Hilary can squeeze through that narrow gap. If not, Hilary like Greg, doomed to be parched by the dry air. Conditions must change if SoCal is to get the tropical moisture. IMHO Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpaceRace22 Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 2 hours ago, AquariusRadar said: A big patch of dry air ahead of Hilary. The models are optimistic. There is a narrow gap between the continental high over Texas and the Pacific high off SoCal. The models must think Hilary can squeeze through that narrow gap. If not, Hilary like Greg, doomed to be parched by the dry air. Conditions must change if SoCal is to get the tropical moisture. IMHO Oh wow, I didn't know this website had geniuses smarter than multiple supercomputers and every professional meteorologist in the country. It's a wonder there aren't more people here to read your wisdom. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reg Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 13 hours ago, Thunder98 said: I have already seen way more rain this summer than summer 2015. I saw 2.18" in summer 2015. This summer I have seen 0.01". Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 8 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said: Oh wow, I didn't know this website had geniuses smarter than multiple supercomputers and every professional meteorologist in the country. It's a wonder there aren't more people here to read your wisdom. The snark isn't warranted here, it is legit insight. If I had a dollar for every time a good system is zapped by dry air... I get you want rain. I do too. No need for stuff like this. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 Palm Springs seeing an entire season's worth of rainfall in 2 days in August would certainly be a thing. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 NHC has her crossing into CA as a TS now. Euro still kills her tropical characteristics about 100 miles south of the border. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 Theme changed. It's not fall yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 Reacts are still BROKEN! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anti Marine Layer Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 2 hours ago, IMoveALot_Weather said: Palm Springs seeing an entire season's worth of rainfall in 2 days in August would certainly be a thing. Could end the drought for the rest of California Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said: Reacts are still BROKEN! Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted August 17, 2023 Report Share Posted August 17, 2023 Flood watch issued by all the SoCal offices: Quote ...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible. * WHERE...A portion of Southwest California, including the following areas, Orange County Coastal Areas, Orange County Inland Areas, San Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire, San Diego County Coastal Areas, San Diego County Valleys and Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills. * WHEN...From late Saturday night through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers, creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations. Flooding in poor drainage and urban areas. Debris flows are possible on recent burn scars. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS... - Tropical Cyclone Hilary is expected to bring a substantial surge in moisture into Southern California, with heavy rainfall and the potential for flash flooding Saturday through Monday. - https://www.weather.gov/safety/flood PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be prepared to take action should flooding develop. AFD from SGX: Quote All eyes turn to Hurricane Hilary and it's potential impacts on Southern California Saturday through Monday. Hurricane Hilary is expected to rapidly intensify as it moves northward up Baja California, then weakening as it hits colder waters in northern Baja. The exact track and intensity of Hilary once it moves northward towards Southern California remains uncertain at this time. Regardless of the exact track and intensity of Hilary, which could continue to change in the coming days, it will bring a substantial surge in moisture into Southern California, with heavy rainfall and a high potential for flash flooding, especially for the mountains and deserts. A Flood Watch has been issued with the afternoon forecast package for all areas Saturday through Monday. Current forecast rainfall amounts Saturday through Monday: Coast: 2 to 2.50 inches Valleys: 2.50 to 3 inches Mojave Desert: 3 to 4.50 inches San Bernardino County Mtns: 4 to 6 inches, locally up to 8 inches on the eastern slopes Riverside and San Diego County Mtns: 4 to 8 inches, locally up to 10 inches on the eastern slopes Lower Deserts: 5 to 6 inches In addition to the rainfall and flooding threat, another concern is the potential for strong east winds Sunday and Monday. The wind threat will be more dependent on the track of Hilary. Should Hilary have a more westerly track, the wind threat would likely be greater, and if the track is more easterly, the threat would be less. The combination of heavy rainfall, the potential for flash flooding, and strong winds could very well make this a high impact event for Southern California. Please stay up to date on the latest forecasts through the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov) and NWS San Diego at weather.gov/sandiego. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 18, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Seems like the cone shifted a little west again. I'm on the edge of the cone agan. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 18, 2023 Author Report Share Posted August 18, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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