2/1 - 2/3 MW/Lower Lakes Major Winter Storm (GHD-3)

[Clinton]

12 Euro Kuchera

[Tom]

11 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z GEFS 

You gotta give the GEFS credit if it ends up coming close to these totals.  It’s been rock steady.

[Clinton]

Just now, Tom said:

Gives me better hope that it developed the second wave instead of sheared out crap from the past two runs.  It would be a welcomed trend to see the models pick up on this secondary wave once the energy is onshore or in the SW.  Still some time for the models to figure this out.  Subtle changes in the speed at which that energy ejects out will have significant impacts down the road.  I suspect the 12z EPS to nudge NW.

I hope you get the higher totals.  I like how the trend today coincides with better sampling. 

[Tony]

The GFS is happy to have you on board Mr. Euro. We have more room on the northbound train if you other models want to come aboard. 

[Clinton]

12z Euro Control is NW vs 6z 10:1 map

 

[Clinton]

12z Euro Mean 10:1 maps at least 50 miles further NW vs 6z

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro Mean 10:1 maps at least 50 miles further NW vs 6z

I haven’t been able to look deeper into the EPS and this run just got me a little bit more hopeful!  Way more members showing a big hit up here.  Looks a lot like the GEFS members.  Man, I sure hope we can get a couple more runs like this to show some consistency.

[Tom]

09z SREF's...

[Clinton]

2 minutes ago, Tom said:

I haven’t been able to look deeper into the EPS and this run just got me a little bit more hopeful!  Way more members showing a big hit up here.  Looks a lot like the GEFS members.  Man, I sure hope we can get a couple more runs like this to show some consistency.

Looks like the energy will come ashore tonight, models should get a better handle on track and strength.  I like how things are going so far today.

[snowstorm83]

2 hours ago, CentralNebWeather said:

Towel thrown. Oh what could have been. The snow drought and brown ground rolls on. One of the most disappointing winter’s that I can remember. 

I'm getting to where we might as well just go for futility records but I'm sure we'll get 6" in April to ruin that 

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z Euro Mean 10:1 maps at least 50 miles further NW vs 6z

Boy, these look very similar....

[Tom]

12z JMA...pretty juiced...

[indianajohn]

Just watched Mike Caplan from Fox Chicago live FB take On the storm.. does a pretty good job going through all the major models.. especially the GFS and the potential for significant LES city north… good watch for anyone in interested.. 

[Tom]

47 minutes ago, indianajohn said:

Just watched Mike Caplan from Fox Chicago live FB take On the storm.. does a pretty good job going through all the major models.. especially the GFS and the potential for significant LES city north… good watch for anyone in interested.. 

I’m waiting for Tom Skilling to be back from vacation and tackle this storm starting on Monday.  Mike Caplan is one of the better Mets in Chicago but he can sometimes be a non-snow lover…but not Skilling!

[The Snowman]

11 minutes ago, Tom said:

I’m waiting for Tom Skilling to be back from vacation and tackle this storm starting on Monday.  Mike Caplan is one of the better Mets in Chicago but he can sometimes be a non-snow lover…but not Skilling!

Will never forget the anti-snow stance Jerry Taft (RIP) would always take (though he would generally end up right more often than you might think!)

[The Snowman]

Since Omaha's out of the running, I'll turn my eyes to my Chicago roots... 12z GFS ENS mean QPF is somewhere between 0.80" and 0.90" eyeballing it; 12z GFS Kuchera Ratios per Pivotal were somewhere around 14:1 - 17:1 for most of the event, so not a wild guess to assume this QPF translates to 11-15".

[Clinton]

NAM at hr 84

NAM through 84

GO CHIEFS!

[Tony]

Looks like the 18z NAM inched north slightly with overrunning. Also looks like a couple mb stronger and wave 2 seems to be inching its way north as well. Of course a long ways to go but liking the trends so far today

[Tom]

26 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Will never forget the anti-snow stance Jerry Taft (RIP) would always take (though he would generally end up right more often than you might think!)

Very true!

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, Tony said:

Looks like the 18z NAM inched north slightly with overrunning. Also looks like a couple mb stronger and wave 2 seems to be inching its way north as well. Of course a long ways to go but liking the trends so far today

The LEHS signal is also something all the models are jumping on that could last for 20+hours…long duration LEHS plus system moisture only bodes well for NE IL.  This will also be a similar NNE flow we saw earlier this week.  THE best scenario for our area.  

[Minny_Weather]

3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

I’m trying to reverse jinx.   I do it every thread.  

I got called a serial whiner by doing that on this forum back when I lived in Lincoln.

[The Snowman]

28 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

Since Omaha's out of the running, I'll turn my eyes to my Chicago roots... 12z GFS ENS mean QPF is somewhere between 0.80" and 0.90" eyeballing it; 12z GFS Kuchera Ratios per Pivotal were somewhere around 14:1 - 17:1 for most of the event, so not a wild guess to assume this QPF translates to 11-15".

Sorry, was looking at the control line instead. Mean QPF from the *average* is closer to 1.2" (let's call it 1.15") which would equate somewhere around 16-20". Goodness.

[The Snowman]

As it stands now, feeling very good about >4" in Chicagoland (save for those in Lake County suburbs and points west, though LES may save the day there) and liking what I'm seeing in today's trends for amounts exceeding 6". Any additional ticks northwards (whether in the 18z or tonight's 00z suite) would probably be enough to get double digits, assuming the usual caveats (moisture doesn't end up worse than modeled, etc.)

[snowstorm83]

12 minutes ago, FAR_Weather said:

I got called a serial whiner by doing that on this forum back when I lived in Lincoln.

It's so hard not to be during a winter like this, I'm trying my best 

[OmahaSnowFan]

[The Snowman]

18z GFS northbound

[Tony]

4 minutes ago, The Snowman said:

18z GFS northbound

This should be a good run with overrunning and main event

[Tony]

2 minutes ago, Tony said:

This should be a good run with overrunning and main event

Speechless

[The Snowman]

Hoo boy... QPF through Thursday PM from the 18z GFS shown. For the Northeast IL folks, I know there's some inkling of precip mixing concerns early on with the overrunning precip shield; from what I can tell, though, the *heavy* majority of precip for this entire event will be falling in an airmass supportive of 15:1 - 17:1 ratios (per Pivotal's Kuchera Ratio charts). Taking that verbatim - a dangerous game to play, of course - implies downtown Chicago would be looking at 22" - 25" from this event.

[Tony]

This just in...double digits have moved into the area on the 18z run. Good day overall for the north train.

[Tony]

I have a gut feeling that we are not done yet with the evolution of this storm. Many places are going to be buried.

[Clinton]

18z GFS yes yes yes

[The Snowman]

GFS ENS appear to be following with a tick northwards thru Hour 66

[The Snowman]

18z GFS ENS absolutely shellacks the region, including a northward tick. Downtown Chicago sees almost 1.7" QPF (assuming ratios somewhere around 15:1 that would imply 25".

[The Snowman]

Might be a long time before we see an ensemble signal like this again, with such a comparatively short timeframe before the actual event (whether it ends up being correct or not is a different question).

[ATW]

13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS yes yes yes

I’m newer to the forum and mainly lurk. I live in Columbia Mo and have been tracking this storm. KC and SPG NWS offices have recently moved the heaviest snow south. I wonder if they’re jumping the gun a bit. It wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up an I-44 Special into STL.

[The Snowman]

Regional QPF thru Thursday night is attached. For posterity.

[Clinton]

3 minutes ago, ATW said:

I’m newer to the forum and mainly lurk. I live in Columbia Mo and have been tracking this storm. KC and SPG NWS offices have recently moved the heaviest snow south. I wonder if they’re jumping the gun a bit. It wouldn’t surprise me if this ended up an I-44 Special into STL.

No I think they were operating on last nights data.  I would look for a northward adjustment this evening.

[ATW]

27 minutes ago, Clinton said:

18z GFS yes yes yes

Hey Clinton. Do you buy the GFS? Trying to figure out why some of our surrounding NWS offices shifted everything south.

[ATW]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

No I think they were operating on last nights data.  I would look for a northward adjustment this evening.

Thanks. This storm is driving me nuts because this could be our ONE chance to score a big snow this winter.