Dave Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 No 4pm obs. That's too bad. I was curious where the highs ended up.This page has the 4pm obs. Doesn't have tigard though:http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=OR&prodtype=hourly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Looks like the GFS has led the way for the first half of December. The ECMWF has and it's ensemble look pretty decent in the 8 to 10 day period. The ensemble shows full blown cool zonal flow at day 10. We're still in business. Thanks to a very chilly finish SEA will end up over 1.5 degrees below normal for November. I'm pretty shocked they scored a low of 25 out of this cold snap. Dropped to 21 here last night. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Oh baby! Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 For my neck of the woods: .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday...A pair of weak upper level disturbancespass over the ridge of high pressure over the area but do littleother than to force a bit more snow flurries out of the stratusand add a bit more cloud cover for the mountains and elevationsabove 4000 feet MSL which are poking above the low stratus cloudswhich remain entrenched over the valleys and lowlands below 4000feet MS. Having more flurries occurrence usually means that thefog will remain less prevalent and ceilings will rise a little bitand there will be a very slight warming trend in daytime hightemperatures for Tuesday relative to those of today. /Pelatti ...light to moderate snows possible over portions of the InlandNorthwest as well as areas of freezing rain between Tuesday nightand Thursday... .Tuesday night through Thursday...Confidence is quite high that thestable ridge which has sat over the Inland NW for the past weekor so will begin to break down or shift into western Montana. Thiswill result in an increasing threat of precipitation as the midlevel flow pattern turns increasingly southwesterly and bringsPacific moisture into the region. The first threat ofprecipitation arrives early in the evening at the Cascade Crestand moves steadily eastward into Wednesday morning. This featureis fairly progressive and expected to weaken into the ridge overMontana. Consequently the chances for the heaviest precipitationwill likely occur over northern and western portions of theforecast area, including the Cascades. Precipitation amounts won`tbe all that heavy with the heaviest amounts expected to occur overChelan, Okanogan and Douglas counties, where anywhere from0.10-0.20 inches of liquid is expected. Initially theprecipitation will fall as all snow, however a slug of abovefreezing air is expected to slowly wedge its way into the southernportions of the Columbia Basin and perhaps the Wenatchee area byWednesday morning. This could bring some light freezing rain tolocations such as Moses Lake, Ritzville, and Vantage as the warmwedge rides over the sub-freezing air near the ground. This wouldlikely impact much of I-90 across this area so travel problems arecertainly possible. Farther north all the precipitation will fallas snow with 1 to 3 inches possible over the northern valleys withan less than inch over the vast majority of the region. Overallthis is a fairly minor system but the threat of ice could producemoderate impacts. The bigger problem with the forecast is the second system whichis expected to move in from the southwest in the form of a warmfront on Wednesday. This system is expected to pack much moremoisture and potentially more problems. The 12z GFS and 12z NAMbrought the warm front into the lower Basin, and Wenatchee areabefore sunset and push it slowly north toward the Canadian borderby Thursday morning. Meanwhile the ECMWF and Canadian models holdoff any threat of significant precipitation until Thursdaymorning. This is a big difference to say the least and would havelarge impacts on the area weather. If the GFS and NAM solutionswere correct, we`d be looking at moderate precipitation amountswith the sub-freezing air holding stubbornly near the ground.There is the other question as to how long would this sub-freezingair remain near the ground as the winds aloft increase steadily.Near the Cascades we expect the freezing air to remain the longestand deepest as there is a good offshore pressure gradient whichwill reinforce the cold-air damming. Moderate snow amounts wouldbe possible especially over Okanogan, Chelan, and Douglascounties. The warm wedge of air aloft would also transition thesnow to freezing rain especially for the Columbia Basin, Wenatcheearea, Waterville Plateau, and Okanogan Valley. The warm air aloftcould also move into the northern Washington and Idaho Valleyslate Wednesday night resulting in a smaller risk of snow changingto freezing rain. Farther east and south the transition from snowto rain would be more steady, so for places like Spokane, Pullmanand Ritzville we`d be looking at snow amounts less than an inchwith more liquid than snow. Of course this is assuming the NAM andGFS solutions are correct. That is a BIG if at this point. The ECMWF, Canadian, and new 18z GFS hint at a much slower arrivalof the warm front with little if any precipitation until earlyThursday morning, We would still see the possibility of some mixedwinter precipitation ahead of the warm front including in theSpokane area but the switch would occur fairly quick. All modelsconcur that 850 mb temps and consequently snow levels skyrocket asthe front comes in so significant snows won`t be the problem ifthe latter solutions verify. By Thursday afternoon, 850 mb tempssoar to well above zero for all locations except near theCascades, so rain would become the primary precipitation type.Needless to say the confidence for this forecast is quite low. Wewill hold off on winter highlights for now and focus our effortsvia social media and weather stories. fx They emphasize their lack of confidence in this forecast discussion... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crf450ish Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Oh baby! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_full.gifI dont even have the slightest clue what I'm looking at, other then the U.S. is situated middle top of this diagram? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I dont even have the slightest clue what I'm looking at, other then the U.S. is situated middle top of this diagram?Phases 2 and 3 = cold for the PNW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Seasons be damned!!!Seasons and anomalies have no bearing on one another, despite what "Dewey's law of ideal weather" may dictate (torching 95% of the year and maybe a little cold in December or January just for shits and giggles). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 What did we ever do before the internets...Was on my phone between work and class. #thestruggleisreal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Phases 2 and 3 = cold for the PNW. Actually 4 and 5 are the most likely to bring Arctic air. At least from what I've seen over the years. The forecast shows a wave in 4 a bit later in December. I think the ball will be in our court around Christmas time. Hopefully we can do something with it. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Seasons and anomalies have no bearing on one another, despite what "Dewey's law of ideal weather" may dictate (torching 95% of the year and maybe a little cold in December or January just for shits and giggles). You really have no idea. Good thing you're in school! Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I think he's cranky that the extended period of warm anomalies is ending, if anything. That post you quoted got deleted. Apparently we're not allowed to call someone "anti-fuzzy" around here. Or explain that you're not actually calling someone a "frozen turd". That post got deleted too - ironically, I made it to make sure the mods understood I wasn't name-calling. <_> Seriously? Mods, I know you've come under some criticism lately and I think you do a tough job well overall (used to be in your shoes), but there's been a few headscratchers lately. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stuffradio Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Actually 4 and 5 are the most likely to bring Arctic air. At least from what I've seen over the years. The forecast shows a wave in 4 a bit later in December. I think the ball will be in our court around Christmas time. Hopefully we can do something with it.I've seen charts showing phase 2 and 3 giving the PNW below normal temps, although according to this, we want phases 1 or 2 or 7 though. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/mjoupdate.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Departures PDX -12SLE -14EUG -15 Solidly below normal November in the books. Coldest since 2007 for EUG. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I think the pattern will turn very wet again soon for the PNW. This is the Euro ensemble height mean for days 6-10...pattern screams above normal precip for the west coast. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 You really have no idea. Good thing you're in school!Good thing. Math and science are way more interesting than professional ambulance chasing anyway! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Looks like the GFS has led the way for the first half of December. The ECMWF has and it's ensemble look pretty decent in the 8 to 10 day period. The ensemble shows full blown cool zonal flow at day 10. We're still in business. Thanks to a very chilly finish SEA will end up over 1.5 degrees below normal for November. I'm pretty shocked they scored a low of 25 out of this cold snap. Dropped to 21 here last night. Way too early to say which model is leading. 00Z GFS just followed the the ECMWF for Wednesday and Thursday. How can you say what will happen in the long range with certainty? Never works for me. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I think the pattern will turn very wet again soon for the PNW. This is the Euro ensemble height mean for days 6-10...pattern screams above normal precip for the west coast. get_orig_img.png Hope it comes with tons of mountain snow! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Actually 4 and 5 are the most likely to bring Arctic air. At least from what I've seen over the years. The forecast shows a wave in 4 a bit later in December. I think the ball will be in our court around Christmas time. Hopefully we can do something with it. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Good thing. Math and science are way more interesting than professional ambulance chasing anyway!Except when it comes to the math of determining daily temperature anomalies, of course. NWS officials might need an ambulance if they don't change that up soon, yo! 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 That post you quoted got deleted. Apparently we're not allowed to call someone "anti-fuzzy" around here. Or explain that you're not actually calling someone a "frozen turd". That post got deleted too - ironically, I made it to make sure the mods understood I wasn't name-calling. Seriously? Mods, I know you've come under some criticism lately and I think you do a tough job well overall (used to be in your shoes), but there's been a few headscratchers lately.That does seem like a strange choice of deletions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Hope it comes with tons of mountain snow! At this point it looks that way towards the end of the period, but too soon to say. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 That does seem like a strange choice of deletions. Perhaps whoever deleted them was in a rush and didn't read carefully. Or was having a bad day. Or just thought it would be fun to throw darts and delete posts. I'm not upset. Just baffled. For those who follow sports, I view moderating like officiating: it's not so much how strict you are, but how consistent. Of course, refs/umps have the benefit of solely focusing on the game at hand; I know it's hard to follow everything that goes on here closely, especially if you have a life. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Perhaps whoever deleted them was in a rush and didn't read carefully. Or was having a bad day. Or just thought it would be fun to throw darts and delete posts. I'm not upset. Just baffled. For those who follow sports, I view moderating like officiating: it's not so much how strict you are, but how consistent. Of course, refs/umps have the benefit of solely focusing on the game at hand; I know it's hard to follow everything that goes on here closely, especially if you have a life.And that's it for tonight's installment of Life Lessons with Jared. Stay tuned after the news for Dr. Laura. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 And that's it for tonight's installment of Life Lessons with Jared. Stay tuned after the news for Dr. Laura. Fringe stuff, man. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 0z GFS goes nuclear with GOA low. 951 mb at hour 180. Granted, this is the far reaches of GFS accuracy. Still fun to see. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Fringe stuff, man.Not quite as out there as dry-advection-aiding-and-abeting-the-formation-of-a-strong-inversion-pattern kind of stuff, but it's still out there. Weird life lessons. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 0z GFS goes nuclear with GOA low. 951 mb at hour 180. Granted, this is the far reaches of GFS accuracy. Still fun to see.A couple runs recently had it down around 940. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 A couple runs recently had it down around 940. Well , Dewey, you've one-upped me again! Was it within 180 hrs, though?? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Well s**t, Dewey, you've one-upped me again! Was it within 180 hrs, though??Totally! Probably lost your focus amongst all that nitpicking over zonal flow. Happens to the best of us. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Totally! Probably lost your focus amongst all that nitpicking over zonal flow. Happens to the best of us. I rarely look at the GFS past hour 168. You know that. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I rarely look at the GFS past hour 168. You know that.Snob. But sorry, it was in the 5-7 day range. Sokay, though. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 If this is right the Nino is about to fall off a cliff. 2 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I am most interested in hour 312. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I am most interested in hour 312.Don't waste your time. He won't look. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 If this is right the Nino is about to fall off a cliff. All signs point to that. The chances of heading straight into mod/strong Nina territory (ala 1998) are mixed. Sometimes it happened after really strong Ninos, but there are many times it hasn't: 1958, 1966, 1983, 1992 all went neutralish. I'd say about 50/50 we go full blown Nina. 1 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 I am most interested in hour 312. Oh cold onshore flow! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Haha, 00z GFS is so strong w/ the GOA low that it pushes the downstream surf zone and subsequent wave breaker into the NAO domain, sending the lower PV column (100-30mb) into Siberia. That'd certainly be a bizzare way to initiate winter. Either way, it'd be transient as the PV reconsolidates fairly quickly. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 The 00z says there will be arctic air in the lower 48 in December! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_384_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Right now the trend in the models is to amass the coldest air in the NH in Siberia, leaving most of our side of the globe quite warm. I will feel better about the chances of cold air down the road (probably after Christmas) if we see Alaska turn cold again towards mid December. One thing we definitely don't want to see is a really warm December in Alaska. Historically, that's led to nothing good for the PNW during Ninos. Take a look at the list of +ENSO years with +7 or warmer December anomalies at Fairbanks. It's a who's-who of non frozen turd fests. 201420021993198619821969196319471939 Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted December 1, 2015 Report Share Posted December 1, 2015 Pretty! Me like color... Me think nice... *grunt* 2 Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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