The 12z EURO AIFS shows some retrogression with the ridge from day 10 to day 15. Still far away from An Arctic Blast but it’s a start.

A chilly 38 out there.

12/-4 in Fairbanks today. A +4 daily departure. Dang that is a cold climate.

NOAA; For an early look at the Thanksgiving forecast, mean of ensemble guidance supports longwave troughing developing over eastern North America which favors a cold and possibly snowy outcome for the Great Lakes. Relatively high confidence exists in high temps in the 30s given 90th-10th percentile spread of only about 5 degrees, which is low for a day 6 forecast. The mean of each ensemble system and the latest medium range deterministic runs produce a band of deformation precip somewhere across the southern Great Lakes or Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. The 00z and 12z runs of the ENS have generally favored placing the band near southern lower MI with the 12z run adding more membership on-board for this solution. This would likely result in accumulating snow for the area. Meanwhile, the GEPS and GEFS are leaner on snow and precipitation amounts locally with farther south band placement, but these ensembles are still supportive of at least a chance of light precip. Something to keep an eye on for holiday travel concerns.