Gfs says just kidding.

12z GFS has absolutely zero precip here for the first 11 days of December. That'd be weird....

GEM at least has a big AR for BC and Washington next week. I’ve heard we NEED every drop we can GET this time of year.

@bud2380 From way AN autumn to suppression nightmare in a blink of an eye. Great! Yet to see my first flake. Wonder how deep I can get into this and avoid them? (this is Grayling btw..only here til Wednesday)

We haven't had a classically neutral ENSO winter since 2013-14, IMO. This is looking like the first. That winter of course was perhaps the blockiest of the 21st century so far and even set DJF cold records in parts of the Great Lakes region. Not to say there are a ton of similarities to that year, but it will be an interesting climate change litmus test to see how this one evolves given the decade long gap since then. Without a real ENSO base state to fall back on, patterns often do get established relatively early on and then more or less repeat throughout the season (not always though, neutral years like 1989-90 saw a big February flip). Obviously early returns there don't appear to be great with this one....