18z Euro holds the same in Missouri and Kansas but is significantly better for Nebraska vs 12z.

Don't know if anyone noticed, but the 18z GFS brought big bertha (the pv) into the CONUS again in the long range after backing off on recent runs. Also phases in and essentially creates a hurricane for the east coast haha

Sun came out but the air quality is horrific with this super-strong inversion.

Lets do it!! Bring the heavy stuff right between I-70 and Hwy 50. I'd be good with that.

Good write up from EAX: Attention then turns to the potential for an impactful winter storm across the region beginning as early as Saturday night and continuing into early Monday morning. 500 mb heights cluster analysis is in general agreement on the presence of a western trough, but there are differences in regards to depth, strength, and the progression of this trough, all of which would significantly alter the specific weather outcomes. The 12z deterministic GFS, and to a slightly lesser extent, the 12z deterministic ECMWF, take a more southerly track with the western trough, which would result in a colder thermal profile throughout the event, and more snowfall for our region. However, the ensemble means show a slightly more northerly track, which would likely introduce some periods of freezing rain and/or mixed precipitation, and the axis of heavier snow amounts being a bit further north. At this time, the 12z GEFS shows anywhere from a 40% to 70% chance for snow to meet or exceed 3" across the region, with the highest probabilities across northern and northeastern MO. Meanwhile, the ECMWF ensemble shows anywhere from a 10% (south) to 50% (north) chance for snow to meet or exceed 3". NBM probabilities hint at the possibility, albeit low end at this time, of this being a major winter event for portions of our region (primarily across north central, northeastern, and central MO), with a 20% chance for snow to exceed 6" and a 10% chance for snow to exceed 8" in Chillicothe. For this forecast package, the snow amounts we inherited from WPC feel a little bit aggressive at this time, as we would generally prefer to start more conservative and increase forecast snow totals as confidence increases. Our current grids show anywhere from 3" across far NW MO to as much as 8" toward central MO (Boonville and vicinity), with around 4" to 5" for the KC metro. Again, these totals feel a bit too aggressive at this time, but the potential for a winter storm warning worthy type event is definitely possible.