The long term prognosis is predictable based on the actions of the low crashing into the ridge early next week. A consolidated low kills any chance of retrogression and it's game over for anything exciting.

I'm not 100% sure but is this what you're talking about? GEM seems to have made that change this run 12z Yesterday's 00z

CMC is back with a big hit. GFS is more modest but still a nice storm.

Always 2 weeks away. But don’t worry, this time it is actually coming.

We’ve been chasing this retro for like 2 months now. Not encouraging. Rinse and repeat.