That was pretty cutoff-y, not really phased with the northern stream, so low level cold air advection was quite minimal at least in WA and OR. Just a perfect storm of coldish air immediately going into a completely dead gradient pattern to really maximize subsidence potential. Looking at GEG's obs from the onset of that illustrates my point. Just a little very weak initial offshore flow and then dead gradients. Just a perfect subsidence pattern: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/KGEG/date/2013-1-11 https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/spokane/KGEG/date/2013-1-12

Gotta love the roller coaster of emotions: 12z yesterday: It's not happening 0z yesterday: Looks like meat's back on the menu boys! 12z today: Winter's cancelled. This is why I don't comment outside of day 10 anymore except on trends (which not enough evidence to say). Also, even on our big blasts, the models normally waiver before coming back. We'll see what happens.

Given that the pattern change modelled is still well over 200hrs in advance, I think we are still in game. In fact, I wasn't even expecting a pattern change until the last week of January. Therefore, it's possible the models were just rushing things a few days ago. But it is concerning that we seem to be following the same script from late November and early December with an advertised pattern change falling apart a few days later. So time will tell but winter is not over yet.

On a side note, folks on here would be losing their minds if models were showing something similar to this 10 days out right now.

Uh...it's not over. This is premature.