Still just not seeing much to suggest the blocking necessary to “drop the hammer”. GEFS continues to run a notch or 2 colder than the other ensembles. Unless we see significant improvement in ridging near Alaska I think onshore flow with 850s near -6C for western Washington around Christmas seems like a good bet. Odds of arctic air surging south of the border remains quite low for the next 2 weeks.

As the STJ quiets down in the null/low7-8 phase, it's a safe bet to assume that any undercutting solution you see on the models is unlikely to verify. I actually think the block base will grow further S over time and solutions with digging over the EPAC off the coast of CA will eventually go away. Is this cope? Maybe, but it feels like something that could happen...

Lock it in!!!

Widespread windstorm potential Monday looks pretty significant to me. Usually at this range confidence would be low because winds would depend on the exact track of the storm, but this situation with the tight pressure gradient along a fairly wide linier area with the low itself far to our North relies much less on that than normal. With the saturated soils and lingering flooding this could cause some significant problems IMO.

Just so everyone know the GEFS is right