There are encouraging signs of another wave break around Christmas. It just might take a little while (closer to new years) to get a good push of continental arctic air.

Do you think we’ll have to wait past 15 days again for the hammer to drop?

It seems like the first trough unless it changes will be a chilly but not lowland snow deal next weekend. Just not far enough east with that round showing up. What im looking to see at this point is if we can get the next round of troughing poised for the week of Christmas to set up in a more favorable spot…or if it’ll be a continuation of the chilly mountain snow machine pattern.

I agree. There are a handful of ensemble members in both the EPS and GEFS that lean colder, but all signs right now point to this being a garden variety cold period. Maybe there are cases where this 500 hPa pattern lead to something significant for the lowlands, but the skiers are the ones who see this image and get excited.

I think the overall pattern in that range can definitely trend colder.