If we didn't have the flood and wind risks to track I would say it might be time to take a bit of a reprieve or vacation from model riding for the next 3-5 days. 12z ECMWF in 17 minutes

Some people: You are all fools. Absolute rubes! Only the illiterate would ever take a single GFS run and extrapolate that into a trend. Your 384h snow maps are an affront to God and a waste of electrons to boot. Same people: It appears that winter is canceled and we are destined for nothing but tepid rain and dreary skies. Why so glum you might ask? Well the GFS is a highly skilled forecasting system with an amazing degree of accuracy even at 15 days out. Thankfully these warmer runs have given some of our forum friends the “Of Mice and Men” treatment and silenced them for the time being.

If I remember correctly, he made this winter forecast a little earlier before publishing and I think since posting it he is going to make adjustments to it. I could be wrong but I thought I heard in his youtube video him mentioning that the dates could be pushed out a little farther than the 63 day cycle.

If we had more time for better moisture return, there'd probably be a decent severe weather threat into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. But moisture/instability will definitely be limited, so not expecting much, but the strength of the wind fields would suggest that some isolated severe gusts could occur.

I feel like I need a disclaimer that says ”Author doesn’t really have anything against Tim, in fact finds him to be a decent human and family man. Author still holds a grudge from 12 years ago over comments about ‘Parking lot trees’ and ‘bare and wet’ from February 2019. The author understands that Tim has both accepted and embraced his role as the Anti-Snow Wizard for over 20 years and will sadly be missed when the 1950 redux crushes his magical powers”