Dawg ain’t no way the GFS got an AI run. It already runs on CRACK

Block is further east on the 18z GFS AI

I agree. Stafford is pretty shaky, and his wife is insufferable.

On one hand, every ensemble suite keeps the same ridge in place over the dateline for another three weeks. Every single run, no wobbling other than some vague easterly trends around the New Year that have reversed entirely. So there is high confidence in that pattern persisting, way higher than normal, with our best tools and most sophisticated simulations pointing towards that outcome. On the other, it just doesn't seem right that the ridge won't budge at all. It feels like there should be a trend toward a different outcome after a certain point, whether it be an easterly push toward AK ridging and continental air in the PNW, or a retrograde into a +PNA reset of the whole Pacific circulation.

We are in dire need of a prolonged hard freeze with daytime highs in the low 20s