Good luck! Where is this one at? Hi-Joy Bowl again? Wow! Major inversion. I guess I didn't realize it was developing already! Meanwhile it's only 24 F near Timothy Lake.

To add on, I think the GFS struggles accounting for consistent, historical long range pattern progressions that undercut our ability to achieve lowland cold (ocean warming influence, geographical features, ridge/trough progression). It kind of makes sense when you consider that we're often not "far off" from seeing more extreme cold. EURO seems to leverage a better data pool for sniffing out these inevitabilities much earlier. GFS often gets there but it takes longer. They're all imperfect. The EURO AI ensembles for example, are terrible with the resolution requirements for proper snow modeling. You'll have a temp profile in the 40s and still the EURO AI ensemble members will show decent snow totals for lowlands. It's way worse than any other model I follow. I really don't recall a time when GFS clearly signaled something real in the mid range that the EURO didn't catch. There are times when the model might get lucky and occasionally nail one with its long range cold bias, but in those scenarios there is almost always support from EURO by 7-10 day range.

euro starting to drink the koolaid.

Yeah that's why an early December repeat seems likely. But if we somehow get the block to retrograde better... It could work out a bit better. Technically some areas saw lower ish elevation snow to start December. But not quite to sea level. A Phase 7 MJO clip, if you will.