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February 7th/8th Possible Major Winter Storm???

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#1
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 10:43 AM

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Folks, will there be a major winter storm or not???  That is the question...today's 12z suite of runs are now back to advertising what may be one of the bigger snow systems to hit some of our members.  

 

Lets discuss...

 

 

 

 



#2
Tony

Posted 02 February 2017 - 10:48 AM

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Going to take a wild guess here: anyone north of a Chicago line will be the winners with regards to snow. South of us could see a nasty setup for severe weather. In between will be a cold rain.



#3
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 11:01 AM

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Going to take a wild guess here: anyone north of a Chicago line will be the winners with regards to snow. South of us could see a nasty setup for severe weather. In between will be a cold rain.


Yup, I could see that happening. Or maybe a rain to snow transition for us on the back end.
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#4
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 11:02 AM

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If the HP along the Canadian border could slide east a little slower than currently prog it would benefit a lot more members.

#5
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 11:07 AM

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12z NAVY model with a GL bomb...

 

navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_24.png



#6
james1976

Posted 02 February 2017 - 11:14 AM

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Lot of models showing a bomb. Gonna be a lot of wind.

#7
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 February 2017 - 12:44 PM

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That's one hell of a precip shield on the navy. Looks like a shipwrecker.

#8
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2017 - 12:58 PM

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Folks, will there be a major winter storm or not???  That is the question...today's 12z suite of runs are now back to advertising what may be one of the bigger snow systems to hit some of our members.  

 

Lets discuss...

 

So professional, such the diplomatic flare you exude Tom  

 

Here's the AmWx thread lead-in: "There will be some sort of interesting weather during this period at least."

 

SLIGHT contrast in flavor here vs. there  :lol: 


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#9
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2017 - 01:00 PM

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Lot of models showing a bomb. Gonna be a lot of wind.

 

If I can't get SN, then gimme wind as a consolation :D


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#10
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2017 - 01:01 PM

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That's one hell of a precip shield on the navy. Looks like a shipwrecker.

 

Can't remember seeing the Navgem that amped for anything. Too bad it's so north, supposed to have a SE bias. Oh well.. :wacko:


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#11
Tony

Posted 02 February 2017 - 01:03 PM

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Can't remember seeing the Navgem that amped for anything. Too bad it's so north, supposed to have a SE bias. Oh well.. :wacko:

Give it another model run and you will have your SE bias.


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#12
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 01:50 PM

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Surprised how far north the 12z EPS went today...

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_6.png

 

ecmwf-ens_T850_mslp_us_7.png



#13
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:07 PM

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18z GFS went north...



#14
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:11 PM

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Holy wind!  Widespread 40-60mph wind gusts...



#15
Tony

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:13 PM

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Slower...stronger...farther north.



#16
gosaints

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:14 PM

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Holy wind! Widespread 40-60mph wind gusts...


Really nice wind ingredients no matter the track. I like the chances of a bit of a bowling ball just need it to dig more

#17
gosaints

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:16 PM

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Thats a weenie storm.

#18
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:17 PM

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We finally seem to be getting our first bowler of the season but its trending the wrong way!


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#19
Money

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:17 PM

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Low tracks right over head pretty much

Shows some decent wrap around snows with 40 mph gusts

#20
Tony

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:18 PM

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You would think the H pressure would kick it farther south.



#21
Tony

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:19 PM

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Seconday starting to take shape but that one will probably end up south of us.



#22
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:20 PM

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You would think the H pressure would kick it farther south.

It's not really that strong of a HP.  Need it to be in the mid/upper 1030's+ to shift such a large storm...

 

Plus, it's to far east when the storm wraps up...

 

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_19.png



#23
gosaints

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:23 PM

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It's not really that strong of a HP. Need it to be in the mid/upper 1030's+ to shift such a large storm...

Plus, it's to far east when the storm wraps up...


gfs_mslpaNorm_us_19.png


Ya a storm that size can do funny things in regards to traveling into high pressures

#24
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:25 PM

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18z GFS...



#25
Niko

Posted 02 February 2017 - 02:47 PM

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From NOAA:

 

The plains to Great Lakes system will swing an associated cold
front through the region Sunday, bringing in chances for light
snow across the area. A brief break in systems is still currently
timed for Monday. Meanwhile, a complex and more intense area of
low pressure is expected to develop over the north Pacific and
central Plains Monday.
This system continues to bear watching, as
it could generate a significant mix of winter weather conditions
for all of SE Michigan, likely beginning Tuesday morning and
continuing into Thursday.  :blink:



#26
Tom

Posted 02 February 2017 - 03:10 PM

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18z GEFS didn't budge much and have way more 970's...

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_23.png



#27
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2017 - 04:29 PM

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It's not really that strong of a HP.  Need it to be in the mid/upper 1030's+ to shift such a large storm...
 
Plus, it's to far east when the storm wraps up...
 
 
gfs_mslpaNorm_us_19.png



Fujiwara?

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#28
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2017 - 04:40 PM

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GEFS seem awfully strong for an ensemble. You sure that's not a mis-labeled Operational run???

Fwiw, CPC's release today re-oriented the snow shield allowing part of SEMI to join the party. Niko..I see you


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Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#29
Snoorani

Posted 02 February 2017 - 05:01 PM

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Is there any chance this can go further south so we all can have a good snowstorm?

#30
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2017 - 05:42 PM

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GRR afd is the most interesting read I can remember..Answers my question as why this is modeled so strong without any classic phase job between tht streams. This may be historic for the lucky peeps who get it.



LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM EST Thu Feb 2 2017

It is looking more and more likely that there will be a storm in the
Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. Locally, we anticipate
significant impacts in the Tuesday into Wednesday (maybe Thursday)
time frame. We currently are concerned about significant impacts
from strong winds with lake effect snow and temperatures falling
into the teens by Wednesday afternoon. Significant ice accumulations
will also be possible in some areas.

The GFS and ensemble means of the GEFS and 00z ECMWF (ECE) all show
the track of the surface low through central to southern Lower
Michigan. Since 01/12Z, the deterministic ECMWF has kept the track
of the storm south of I-96. Also since 01/12Z, GFS operational runs
have been tracking the storm successively farther south while
remaining farther north than most of the recent ECWMF runs. The
Canadian model has been all over the place with the track of this
system so I am not buying that 12z run of the GEMS for the storm
track. It should also be noted that the GFS parallel run is
significantly farther south than the GFS operational runs.

This storm is associated with the storm I have been writing about
over the past few days - i.e., the one that came out of China,
crosses Japan, and then moves north from the western Pacific towards
Kamchatka. The storms builds that huge blocking upper level high
over the Bering Sea this coming weekend. Some of that storm`s energy
goes under the blocking high and merges with a storm digging south
off the Coast of British Columbia. The storm from British Columbia
by itself merges with a closed upper low off the coast of California
prior to the western Pacific system reaching that area. This
suggests this storm may have the merged energy of at least 3 systems
when it crosses the Rocky Mountains early next week. What seems to
be modulating the track of this storm is just how much digging there
is on the down stream side of the blocking high. Another aspect to
this is there is still the northern stream system (polar vortex???)
which is being driven south from the northern arctic. It does not
seem to me the southern stream storm really merges with that
northern stream, even as it tracks up the east coast of Canada late
next week.

The harder part to forecast is what happens Tuesday as the main
system comes out into the Great Lakes. The operational ECMWF does
not seem to bring the surface temperature above freezing along I-96
and north (GRR east) Tuesday. This could mean a significant icing
event. Even if we do go to rain in GRR, areas north and east of here
could see over a 1/4 inch of ice from this storm. Heavy snowfall is
possible Tuesday north of the freezing rain area. So, bottom line,
we still do not know the track of this storm yet but it seems clear
there will be a storm in the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. The
lake effect will likely continue into Thursday.

We will continue to monitor this storm over the next few days to
better ascertain possible impacts to our area.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#31
jaster220

Posted 02 February 2017 - 05:49 PM

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Is there any chance this can go further south so we all can have a good snowstorm?


Read that afd. With so many moving parts to this scenario, I would say this is no where near settled. Chicago still in the chase, at least for nice impacts if not feet of SN.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#32
Niko

Posted 02 February 2017 - 06:01 PM

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GEFS seem awfully strong for an ensemble. You sure that's not a mis-labeled Operational run???

Fwiw, CPC's release today re-oriented the snow shield allowing part of SEMI to join the party. Niko..I see you

attachicon.gifhazards_d3_7_contours.png

:D



#33
gosaints

Posted 02 February 2017 - 08:17 PM

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Thats a nice windmaker if nothing else once again

#34
Money

Posted 02 February 2017 - 08:22 PM

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Still showing nice back end snow

#35
gosaints

Posted 02 February 2017 - 08:24 PM

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Still showing nice back end snow


You do well.

#36
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2017 - 08:26 PM

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I'm rooting for 60 degrees by my birthday. Feb 23rd. Get this winter over with

#37
Madtown

Posted 02 February 2017 - 08:45 PM

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Madison rain?

#38
Money

Posted 02 February 2017 - 08:46 PM

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Ukie and GGEM much farther south

#39
bud2380

Posted 02 February 2017 - 08:54 PM

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Ggem surface low runs through Iowa then into eastern Wisconsin. Track looks pretty locked in. Iowa has been the low pressure magnet this year. Just about every decent storm this year has had the surface low track right through the state.

#40
Money

Posted 02 February 2017 - 09:13 PM

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GEFS:

 

gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_20.png

 

gfs-ens_mslp_pwat_us_21.png



#41
Money

Posted 02 February 2017 - 09:15 PM

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Tons of southern solutions on GEFS:

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_20.png

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_21.png



#42
Money

Posted 02 February 2017 - 09:16 PM

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Several 970's and some 960's:

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png


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#43
Money

Posted 03 February 2017 - 03:07 AM

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6z GFS came in farther SE and hammers the LSE and GB area with 12+
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#44
Niko

Posted 03 February 2017 - 06:04 AM

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From NOAA:

 

Turning more active next week, as a series of lower amplitude waves
of central pacific origin lead in the eventual ejection of an arctic
system by mid week.



#45
Tony

Posted 03 February 2017 - 06:22 AM

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I see the Euro went south. European models vs. GFS but have noticed the GFS has been trending south as well.


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#46
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 06:27 AM

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Several 970's and some 960's:
 
gfs-ememb_lowlocs_us_22.png


I still think south options are on the table. Even if we can't get it as far south as 01.12z Euro, am hoping for at least some backside storm conditions via LES. With wind headlines, should be a very colorful CONUS map. Would love to see all 5 GL's lit up with storm warnings.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#47
gosaints

Posted 03 February 2017 - 06:35 AM

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Will be interesting what happens to  the strength of the storm.  So far this season from about this timefame until storm time trends have been to weaken systems.



#48
jaster220

Posted 03 February 2017 - 06:50 AM

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Will be interesting what happens to  the strength of the storm.  So far this season from about this timefame until storm time trends have been to weaken systems.


To counter that, ensemble run are notoriously de-amped compared to the Op's, plus the Op's play catch-up wrt strength. So far, the ensembles are strong so I don't think this will go so lame.

Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 0.0"  Oct: 0.0 Nov: 0.0 Dec: 0.0 Jan: 0.0 Feb: 0.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0 (annual avg for mby = ~49.9", avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" ) 135% of normal-helluva stretch!!

 

Winter 2017-18 Snow Total = 68.3"

Winter 2016-17 Snow Total = 52"

Winter 2015-16 Snow Total = 57.4"

Winter 2014-15 Snow Total = 55.3"

Winter 2013-14 Snow Total = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 

Winter 2012-13 Snow Total = 47.2"

Winter 2011-12 Snow Total = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#49
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 February 2017 - 06:50 AM

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Will be interesting what happens to  the strength of the storm.  So far this season from about this timefame until storm time trends have been to weaken systems.


Without a doubt. IIRC the Christmas Day rain storm/Dakotas special was one of the only ones that didn't come in much weaker than the models depicted. However, even if this storm does come in weaker, it should still produce. It will essentially have the energy from 3 different storms.

#50
Tom

Posted 03 February 2017 - 06:55 AM

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HP placement on the 06z GFS is trending better and sliding east a little slower.  It has that "banana" look earlier on...need a little more HP...

 

 

 

gfs_mslpaNorm_us_17.png

 

 

 

 

06z GFS snowfall...3" line creeped south towards the IL/WI border...