3/13 - 3/14 Midwest/Lakes Snow System

[gosaints]

7 inches

[Tom]

3.5" of powder on my deck.  Current temp of 28F is helping with accumulations on the paved surfaces.  It's interesting to note, when I took a walk outside when the first flakes began to fly, the paved surfaces that were in the sun shine all day were wet while the ones that were either covered by a car or in the shade were accumulating snow.  Obviously the UV from the March sun was absorbed into the sidewalks/roadways.

[Tom]

Hey Niko, are you getting hit by the lake band coming off Lake Erie?  I don't think I've ever seen that before.

[Madtown]

Maybe 3 here.

[Iowawx]

Maybe 2 inches in Villa Park, Illinois. When does the lake effect snow begin in dupage county?

[Tom]

Here is a link for those who want to monitor the wind vectors...you can really see the air piling up near MKE...

 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-90.76,40.66,3000

[Tom]

Maybe 2 inches in Villa Park, Illinois. When does the lake effect snow begin in dupage county?

I think after 6:00pm or so...

 

Meantime, basically all the higher rez models are still showing a good LES event...

 

00z WRF-NMM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2017031300/wrf-nmm_apcpn_ncus_48.png

 

 

 

00z WRF-ARW...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2017031300/wrf-arw_apcpn_ncus_48.png

 

 

 

06z RGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017031306/rgem_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

06z NAM-4km...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017031306/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

06z NAM 3km...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031306/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_14.png

[Tom]

Here is another very good radar I use from COD meteorology:

 

http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=MKX-N0Q-1-12

 

Awesome loop showing the lake moisture hammering WI lakeshore...

[Tom]

Just insane snowfall rates are expected along the EC...2-5"/hr...hope to see something of a tease here with the LES...

[Tony]

I think after 6:00pm or so...

 

Meantime, basically all the higher rez models are still showing a good LES event...

 

00z WRF-NMM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2017031300/wrf-nmm_apcpn_ncus_48.png

 

 

 

00z WRF-ARW...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2017031300/wrf-arw_apcpn_ncus_48.png

 

 

 

06z RGEM...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2017031306/rgem_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

 

06z NAM-4km,,,

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2017031306/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_14.png

 

 

06z NAM 3km...

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam3km/2017031306/nam3km_apcpn_ncus_14.png

Good sign the hi-res not backing down on LES. Normally don't get too excited about these type of events this side of the lake but for some reason I have a feeling some areas could see double digits from this especially if it trains in one area for a prolonged period of time.

[Snoorani]

How long will the LE last on this side of the lake and hopefully we can get great totals out of it

[Tom]

Good sign the hi-res not backing down on LES. Normally don't get too excited about these type of events this side of the lake but for some reason I have a feeling some areas could see double digits from this especially if it trains in one area for a prolonged period of time.

I agree with ya!  Just look what is happening across the "cheddar curtain".  Its supposed to continue snowing up that way all day long till about 5:00-7:00pm before the winds veer more N/NE.

 

Waukegan up to 5.5" already...they will likely see the most snow in NE IL...

 

Just saw the latest RPM and it is suggesting an additional 5-7" for Lake/Cook/Dupage county in Illinois and as well as Lake/Porter county in IN.  I think IndianaJohn can get crushed tomorrow and even the south side of Chicago as the lake plume doesn't move all to much later on Tuesday.

[Tom]

How long will the LE last on this side of the lake and hopefully we can get great totals out of it

Thru midday tomorrow...might hug the shoreline a little longer into the evening tomorrow...

[WBadgersW]

Still a lot more to come... MKX should have issued a warning of some sort IMO

[VMB443]

Coming down really nice west of Milwaukee about 15 miles from the lake. Roads a mess. Nice big fat flakes.

[Tom]

Still a lot more to come... MKX should have issued a warning of some sort IMO

How much have you picked up since the LE band starting dumping snow??  Sounds like it's snowing pretty good over the past 2 hours.  I love seeing those fatty flakes fly.

[Tom]

Coming down really nice west of Milwaukee about 15 miles from the lake. Roads a mess. Nice big fat flakes.

About 1"/hr???

[WBadgersW]

How much have you picked up since the LE band starting dumping snow?? Sounds like it's snowing pretty good over the past 2 hours. I love seeing those fatty flakes fly.

Couldn't tell you. I'm downtown now, it took me a extra hour.

 

Lake effect warning now..

 

Snow accumulations... an additional 4 to 7 inches is expected,

bringing the storm total to 7 to 15 inches by Tuesday morning.

The snow will be dry and powdery inland, possibly a bit wetter

toward the lake.

[VMB443]

About 1"/hr???

Yeah, definitely - it's great out there - if you love snow of course.  I think this is over-performing.  I'd think we've had 2.5 inches here since 7:30 or so.

[Niko]

Hey Niko, are you getting hit by the lake band coming off Lake Erie?  I don't think I've ever seen that before.

Nothing as of yet. Currently a dusting has fallen!

[VMB443]

Couldn't tell you. I'm downtown now, it took me a extra hour.

 

Lake effect warning now..

 

Snow accumulations... an additional 4 to 7 inches is expected,

bringing the storm total to 7 to 15 inches by Tuesday morning.

The snow will be dry and powdery inland, possibly a bit wetter

toward the lake.

Wow - just saw that - pretty impressive.

[WBadgersW]

Should be the biggest snowfall in three years, I believe.

[Tom]

JB has been patiently waiting for his storm.  Looks like the more coastal track will finally hit his back yard with a sizeable storm.

 

 

Couldn't tell you. I'm downtown now, it took me a extra hour.

Lake effect warning now..

Snow accumulations... an additional 4 to 7 inches is expected,
bringing the storm total to 7 to 15 inches by Tuesday morning.
The snow will be dry and powdery inland, possibly a bit wetter
toward the lake.

Finally!

 

 

Yeah, definitely - it's great out there - if you love snow of course.  I think this is over-performing.  I'd think we've had 2.5 inches here since 7:30 or so.

I had a feeling last night the models were on the right track and this LES event could deliver the goods.  850's are supposed to dive even farther later this afternoon so these bands may intensify even farther.

[Snoorani]

Will LOT also issue lake Effect Warning?

[Niko]

Nothing as of yet. Currently a dusting has fallen!

@ Tom, I just saw the band on radar....unfortunately, im due north of that dark shaded area. Currently, light snowshowers. Snow should get heavier by pm I think.

[Tom]

Will LOT also issue lake Effect Warning?

I think they will later today.  Especially since MKE just issued their warning.  They were prob nowcasting and seeing how the bands setup and we can see how they are delivering.

 

First time this season I have seen the "heavy snow" wording in my grid:

 

 

Today

Snow before 1pm, then snow or flurries likely after 1pm. High near 31. Northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.

Tonight

Snow showers or flurries likely before 7pm, then snow showers, mainly after 7pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. North northeast wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday

Snow showers, mainly before 1pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 27. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

[indianajohn]

I agree with ya!  Just look what is happening across the "cheddar curtain".  Its supposed to continue snowing up that way all day long till about 5:00-7:00pm before the winds veer more N/NE.

 

Waukegan up to 5.5" already...they will likely see the most snow in NE IL...

 

Just saw the latest RPM and it is suggesting an additional 5-7" for Lake/Cook/Dupage county in Illinois and as well as Lake/Porter county in IN.  I think IndianaJohn can get crushed tomorrow and even the south side of Chicago as the lake plume doesn't move all to much later on Tuesday.

From your mouth to god's ears LMAO!!! Having some experience with LES if this thing decides to park itself for any extended period of time we could be in for a doozy.

[Tom]

The last time we have seen a March Blizzard and LES in Chicago was the 1993 Super Storm.  I remember Chicago got 6"+ from that event.

[WBadgersW]

And lot pulls the trigger on the LE warning

[jaster220]

Hey Niko, are you getting hit by the lake band coming off Lake Erie?  I don't think I've ever seen that before.

 

Nothing as of yet. Currently a dusting has fallen!

 

Motown LEhS. A rarity for sure!

 

 

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather StatementNational Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI855 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-131600-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-Including the cities of Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor,Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe855 AM EDT Mon Mar 13 2017...Lake enhanced snow in the Detroit area...Light snow will continue into the afternoon at rates generallyless than one half inch per hour. The exception will be theDetroit Metro Area, particularly Wayne County and locationsnearby. In these locations, additional moisture feeding off ofLake Erie will contribute to locally higher snowfall rates.Localized rates of up to 1 inch per hour will be possible attimes. Motorists, particularly those in the Detroit Metro Area,should be prepared for rapid deterioration of visibility and roadconditions.$$

[james1976]

I might have ended with 7. Hard to tell with the wind and compaction. Puts my season total at about 30.

[Tom]

Wow, LOT sounds impressed with this set up!

 

Lake Effect Snow Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
1022 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017


ILZ006-013-014-132330-
/O.UPG.KLOT.LE.A.0001.170314T0000Z-170314T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KLOT.LE.W.0001.170314T0000Z-170314T2100Z/
/O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170313T1800Z/
Lake IL-DuPage-Cook-
Including the cities of Waukegan, Wheaton, and Chicago
1022 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
4 PM CDT TUESDAY...

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a Lake Effect
Snow Warning, which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM
CDT Tuesday. The Lake Effect Snow Watch is no longer in effect.

* TIMING...Periods of Light Snow will continue this morning before
tapering off to occasional light snow or flurries in the
afternoon. A band of heavy Lake effect snow is then expected to
develop over Northeastern Illinois this evening. This band of
heavy snow will continue into Tuesday morning.

* ACCUMULATIONS...An inch or less of additional accumulation today.

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW...A band of lake effect snow is forecast to
develop this evening and could become quite intense overnight
Monday into Tuesday morning. Typically, these sort of lake
effect bands are only 10 to 15 miles wide, but can produce very
heavy snow, sometimes in excess of 2 inches per hour. Because of
the nature of lake effect snow bands, snowfall accumulations and
conditions can vary drastically over relatively short distances.
While not all areas in the warning will see significant lake
effect snow, current indications are some locations in the
warning area could experience 5 to 9 inches or more of additional
snowfall from the lake effect Monday night into Tuesday.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...Localized amounts of 5 to 9 inches.

[Niko]

Wow, LOT sounds impressed with this set up!

 

Lake Effect Snow Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

National Weather Service Chicago IL

1022 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

 

 

ILZ006-013-014-132330-

/O.UPG.KLOT.LE.A.0001.170314T0000Z-170314T2100Z/

/O.NEW.KLOT.LE.W.0001.170314T0000Z-170314T2100Z/

/O.CON.KLOT.WW.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-170313T1800Z/

Lake IL-DuPage-Cook-

Including the cities of Waukegan, Wheaton, and Chicago

1022 AM CDT Mon Mar 13 2017

 

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM CDT THIS

AFTERNOON...

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO

4 PM CDT TUESDAY...

 

The National Weather Service in Chicago has issued a Lake Effect

Snow Warning, which is in effect from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM

CDT Tuesday. The Lake Effect Snow Watch is no longer in effect.

 

* TIMING...Periods of Light Snow will continue this morning before

tapering off to occasional light snow or flurries in the

afternoon. A band of heavy Lake effect snow is then expected to

develop over Northeastern Illinois this evening. This band of

heavy snow will continue into Tuesday morning.

 

* ACCUMULATIONS...An inch or less of additional accumulation today.

 

* LAKE EFFECT SNOW...A band of lake effect snow is forecast to

develop this evening and could become quite intense overnight

Monday into Tuesday morning. Typically, these sort of lake

effect bands are only 10 to 15 miles wide, but can produce very

heavy snow, sometimes in excess of 2 inches per hour. Because of

the nature of lake effect snow bands, snowfall accumulations and

conditions can vary drastically over relatively short distances.

While not all areas in the warning will see significant lake

effect snow, current indications are some locations in the

warning area could experience 5 to 9 inches or more of additional

snowfall from the lake effect Monday night into Tuesday.

 

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...Localized amounts of 5 to 9 inches.

There ya go Tom, you get inundated, assuming you fall into that band.

[Niko]

Motown LEhS. A rarity for sure!

Quite unusual to say the least.  

[jaster220]

Snow began (per KRMY ASOS unit) about 4 am and I measured ~1" just before 6 am, so it over achieved on take-off here in Marshall. This recent reading with 3/4 mile vis is actually really impressive for our ASOS unit.

 

Meanwhile, In St. Joe where it's been a steady light snow all morning I'm not sure of amounts, it's really hard to gage from 3rd floor up.

 

TWC doesn't cover storms like they used to, but they do name them, lol

[Niko]

Snow began (per KRMY ASOS unit) about 4 am and I measured ~1" just before 6 am, so it over achieved on take-off here in Marshall. This recent reading with 3/4 mile vis is actually really impressive for our ASOS unit.

 

Meanwhile, In St. Joe where it's been a steady light snow all morning I'm not sure of amounts, it's really hard to gage from 3rd floor up.

 

TWC doesn't cover storms like they used to, but they do name them, lol

[Tony]

There ya go Tom, you get inundated, assuming you fall into that band.

I can't recall if Dupage County has ever been in a LE Snow Warning so should be interesting for sure. Whomever ends up in that band of snow will surely see in excess of 12"

[midwest buildit]

Well not enough to work/ plow from this first little storm. Pavement temps appear to be warm as it mostly melted off the blacktop. Come on lake effect. Lol

[WBadgersW]

Schools are starting to release early around here. If things continue I'm easily going to reach 1'+.

[Tom]

4-6" reports in Lake county. 6.1" at Gurnee is the most I could find.

 

RPM pukes snow into N Cook/DuPage and Lake county. It's spitting out nearly 6" at ORD. Models tend to underdo the snow ratios.

 

NW IN gets hammered later tomorrow and continues all night into Wed.