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12/4 - 12/5 Upper Midwest Major Storm

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#101
jaster220

Posted 02 December 2017 - 08:34 PM

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0z GFS really isn’t that far off from the NAMs in terms of pressure and intensity. The Euro is basically the only one that isnt wrapping this thing up.


Euro goes 995 to 975 mb in 24 hrs. While not technically bombo-genesis, I'd call that wrapped up in my book.

#102
Niko

Posted 02 December 2017 - 09:07 PM

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My local weatherman just mentioned that numerous snowshowers next week w some possible accumulations.


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#103
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 December 2017 - 04:21 AM

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Euro goes 995 to 975 mb in 24 hrs. While not technically bombo-genesis, I'd call that wrapped up in my book.


Fair enough!

#104
Tom

Posted 03 December 2017 - 04:31 AM

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All guidance is suggesting a track just east or right over MSP which isn’t ideal but bc this storm deepens so quickly that defo band pivots through and can lay down a quick hitting snowfall. NW trend is not MSP’s friend and that’s what usually happens with such strong storms.
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#105
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 December 2017 - 04:37 AM

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Well, we won’t see much (if any) snow here in E/C MN but now have a chance of thunder tomorrow afternoon. W MN gonna have fun with possible blizzard conditions.
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#106
Tom

Posted 03 December 2017 - 04:44 AM

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Well, we won’t see much (if any) snow here in E/C MN but now have a chance of thunder tomorrow afternoon. W MN gonna have fun with possible blizzard conditions.


I’m hoping you guys can score at least enough to cover up the grass! Such a great storm but the NW trend is not your friend ATM.
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#107
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 December 2017 - 05:45 AM

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I’m hoping you guys can score at least enough to cover up the grass! Such a great storm but the NW trend is not your friend ATM.


Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.

#108
Tom

Posted 03 December 2017 - 06:33 AM

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Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.

If the NW trend ends up happening, the GFS won this battle 48+ hours out IMO.  It has been steadfast on the heaviest snows NW of MSP as the Euro was suggesting a bit more southerly route during this range.  We'll see how this ends up but there is still room for some shifts.  I still think if this bombs out you can cash in on the back wash snows bc normally when systems go neg tilt there is that "wild card" defo band and its always fickle trying to figure that out at this range.  Both NAM's are suggesting it coming near MSP.


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#109
Niko

Posted 03 December 2017 - 06:50 AM

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Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.

True, but you can end up getting a light snowshower activity and get that dusting in your neck of the woods.



#110
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2017 - 07:50 AM

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Nice to see the swath of WSWatches actually south of Canada, if not hitting MSP as was hoped for. I'm with Tom, and agree, it's these bombing storms that go negative-tilt that give a legit shot at backside wrap around in the path of the departing SLP. Hopefully at least a 1-3 coating to make it look the season!

#111
Tom

Posted 03 December 2017 - 07:52 AM

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12z GFS with a 982mb monster just north of MSP...the seasonal trend of monster GL's storms continues...


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#112
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2017 - 08:06 AM

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12z GFS with a 982mb monster just north of MSP...the seasonal trend of monster GL's storms continues...

Awesome, and yeah, this storm cycling thru now with winter cold air is way stronger than the Oct version! I see MQT acknowledges my post about a pounding in store for Keweenaw peeps:

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
541 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017

MIZ001>004-009-084-032200-
Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Gogebic-
Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Ontonagon, Houghton,
Hancock, L`Anse, Ironwood, Kenton, and Sidnaw
541 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 /441 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/

...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...

A strong and deepening low pressure system tracking from western
Lake Superior to northern Ontario Monday night into Tuesday will
lead to very windy conditions beginning late Monday night across
western Upper Michigan. Gusts over 50 mph are possible. Winds this
strong could break tree limbs and lead to sporadic power outages.
Waves building as high as 15 to 20 feet on the west side of the
Keweenaw Peninsula late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon
could result in significant beach erosion and possible damage to
lakeshore property.

Cold air sweeping in behind the system will change rain to snow
late Monday night. Significant lake enhanced snow and blowing snow
is expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, especially over the
higher terrain of western Upper Michigan. The strong winds, heavy
snow and blowing snow could result in hazardous travel late Monday
night through Tuesday Night. The worst conditions, with potential
whiteouts at times, are expected on the Keweenaw Peninsula.

Those with travel plans over western Upper Michigan may need to
make adjustments to safely arrive on time. Stay tuned for updated
information from the Marquette National Weather Service.

$$

JLA

#113
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2017 - 08:14 AM

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I miss the yellow Bliz Watch product! Not just from a wx weenie standpoint either. I mean, one glimpse at the hazard map could tell a peep that the NWS was expecting truly bad conditions, not just snow falling. Now, you have to go read the text to find that out. Was quite surprised to see how many are calling for bliz conditions and dangerous travel. Hope it doesn't take a tragedy before they re-think that one.
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#114
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2017 - 08:19 AM

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Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.

Looking at this, you have a shot at that!



#115
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 December 2017 - 08:49 AM

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Looking at this, you have a shot at that!
attachicon.gifusa_ICast (4).gif


I’m throwing in the towel in hopes that reverse psychology also applies to weather. Haha. It’s all going to depend on how far NW this thing continues to trend. Could definitely see an hour or two of light snow here as it stands now.
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#116
St Paul Storm

Posted 03 December 2017 - 02:00 PM

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A chance of thunderstorms tomorrow early afternoon with a high just shy of 60, then around an inch of snow tomorrow night. It sucks to miss the brunt of the snow but cool to have such a dynamic system rolling through.
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#117
Niko

Posted 03 December 2017 - 03:50 PM

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I’m throwing in the towel in hopes that reverse psychology also applies to weather. Haha. It’s all going to depend on how far NW this thing continues to trend. Could definitely see an hour or two of light snow here as it stands now.

Every bit helps, eh! :lol:


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#118
jaster220

Posted 03 December 2017 - 08:26 PM

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NAM32 drags a pretty large tail across MN



#119
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 03 December 2017 - 09:28 PM

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NAM/4KM NAM want to extend the snow band further south and push it through eastern Nebraska down here. May only be a couple hours worth but just seeing some snow in the air would be nice!


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For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#120
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 December 2017 - 09:59 PM

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NAM32 drags a pretty large tail across MN

nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.png


Looking like a solid line of storms down here. 2010 analog in play here? (New years eve 2010)
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#121
Tom

Posted 04 December 2017 - 03:55 AM

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Both 00z Euro/control laying down a couple inches of snow over MSP area...both models are more agressive with the defo band.

 

ecmwf_acc_snow_mw_84.png

 

 

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#122
Tom

Posted 04 December 2017 - 04:01 AM

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Dang, is this storm a massive wind producer!  Woke up a few times last night from the gusty winds.  This system should be fun to track several more times during the LRC.


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#123
St Paul Storm

Posted 04 December 2017 - 04:10 AM

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The 6z models all pushing the heaviest snow further ESE. A possible last second victory in the making? Getting interesting.

Currently 55F and should be snowing around 7-9pm.
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#124
Tom

Posted 04 December 2017 - 04:14 AM

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The 6z models all pushing the heaviest snow further ESE. A possible last second victory in the making? Getting interesting.

Currently 55F and should be snowing around 7-9pm.

Yup, it's always exciting to see last minute trends in your favor.  These type of situations with a rapidly deepening cyclone almost always produce a solid defo band. I know it wont be much but at least it'll change your landscape and have snow OTG when the cold comes!



#125
Tom

Posted 04 December 2017 - 04:15 AM

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06z NAM3km handles these dynamic storm systems quite well and is flashing a rather potent defo band.  This will be fun for you guys in MN!

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_21.png

 

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_36.png


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#126
jaster220

Posted 04 December 2017 - 05:20 AM

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NAM3km was over ambitious for us OHV peeps with last month's strong SLP, but this has a lot more cold going for it, so I hope it's closer to correct this go-round! 

 

Love to see the hazards map lit up! Ofc, can't help but also notice headlines to the left and right of SMI, and again nothing here. This has been common (aside from flooding - yay) so far this season. Hoping that streak dies a good death at some point..

 


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#127
Tom

Posted 04 December 2017 - 06:33 AM

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Both high rez NAM's trending better with the defo band and looks like a couple inches are in store for MSP area...

 

nam3km_asnow_ncus_28.png


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#128
Tom

Posted 04 December 2017 - 06:39 AM

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00z Euro...a different look at accumulations...

 

DQNKL8yX4AI6nFV.jpg


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#129
St Paul Storm

Posted 04 December 2017 - 06:45 AM

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If the hi-res cams are correct, I think MPX might have to consider adding WWA on top of the wind advisory. Several hours of moderate snow with crashing temps and gusts up to 30-40 mph is going to make it dicey outside. Unfortunately it’s going to take place late in the evening but I hope to get a glimpse of it.
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#130
Tom

Posted 04 December 2017 - 06:54 AM

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Gary Lezak is thinking the LRC is around 42-49 days (centered around 45.5 days)....he believes this storm is correlating well with the late October GL's bomb.  Here are his maps below that illustrate the similarities.  One can also argue this storm looks and tracks more similarly to the Oct 6th-7th storm also producing a 30-day harmonic bc in early Nov (3rd-5th) there was a wave that tracked across ND/N MN and laid down 1-4" of snow and into NW WI.

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#131
jaster220

Posted 04 December 2017 - 07:25 AM

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Gary Lezak is thinking the LRC is around 42-49 days (centered around 45.5 days)....he believes this storm is correlating well with the late October GL's bomb.  Here are his maps below that illustrate the similarities.  One can also argue this storm looks and tracks more similarly to the Oct 6th-7th storm also producing a 30-day harmonic bc in early Nov (3rd-5th) there was a wave that tracked across ND/N MN and laid down 1-4" of snow and into NW WI.

 

I'd roll with that one.. ;)  Ofc, it does  NOT look like we'll be getting the nice S Stream systems that we saw following shortly after, on Oct 10-11 and the 14th over our way. So, not sure what to think attm



#132
Tom

Posted 04 December 2017 - 07:34 AM

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I'd roll with that one.. ;)  Ofc, it does  NOT look like we'll be getting the nice S Stream systems that we saw following shortly after, on Oct 10-11 and the 14th over our way. So, not sure what to think attm

I will have to say that the influence of the extreme +PNA will have some effect to the cycling pattern and there is a system to monitor Dec 9-11th riding the thermal boundary down from the Rockies and tracking across our MW/GL's members.  The Euro has flashed it for a couple runs and the Euro Control also lays down a nice swath of snow during this period.  There are several chances for seeing snow after this system which builds the excitement to finally see a sticking snow.  This particular system stands a better chance at hitting more of our members.


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#133
Clinton

Posted 04 December 2017 - 07:39 AM

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Tom would you be able to post the surface charts for Oct 6,7 for comparison?


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#134
NEJeremy

Posted 04 December 2017 - 07:47 AM

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Gary Lezak is thinking the LRC is around 42-49 days (centered around 45.5 days)....he believes this storm is correlating well with the late October GL's bomb.  Here are his maps below that illustrate the similarities.  One can also argue this storm looks and tracks more similarly to the Oct 6th-7th storm also producing a 30-day harmonic bc in early Nov (3rd-5th) there was a wave that tracked across ND/N MN and laid down 1-4" of snow and into NW WI.

It's interesting how this doesn't match up with what happened in the beginning of October. I went back and looked at the upper levels around that time and what should then match up around the 18-25th of November, and there's really nothing there. The beginning of the month of October, specifically the 5-10th had persistent southwest flow, etc. The cycle for the corresponding part of November looks nothing like it. Is he saying the beginning part of October was not part of the new LRC then? I'm curious as that was our last active time here in Nebraska and now we've basically had nearly 2 months of NOTHING!


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#135
NEJeremy

Posted 04 December 2017 - 08:00 AM

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Gary Lezak is thinking the LRC is around 42-49 days (centered around 45.5 days)....he believes this storm is correlating well with the late October GL's bomb.  Here are his maps below that illustrate the similarities.  One can also argue this storm looks and tracks more similarly to the Oct 6th-7th storm also producing a 30-day harmonic bc in early Nov (3rd-5th) there was a wave that tracked across ND/N MN and laid down 1-4" of snow and into NW WI.

Also what is different for you when you talk about LRC and then also a 30 day harmonic? Are those 2 different things where you believe one is different/more accurate than the other? Are you saying if a storm comes though on October 1st, than there will also be a storm on November 1st bc of the 30 day and then also a storm on 11/15 because of the LRC? But then that 30 day harmonic also cycles through on 12/1 again and then on 12/15 you have the LRC 45 day from the 30 day harmonic storm on 11/1 and then the 30 day harmonic from the storm from 11/15? So basically any one storm at the beginning of the new cycle is producing a storm every 15 days, not to mention any other different storms? Wouldn't it be non stop storminess? See what I am saying? :)



#136
jaster220

Posted 04 December 2017 - 08:04 AM

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I will have to say that the influence of the extreme +PNA will have some effect to the cycling pattern and there is a system to monitor Dec 9-11th riding the thermal boundary down from the Rockies and tracking across our MW/GL's members.  The Euro has flashed it for a couple runs and the Euro Control also lays down a nice swath of snow during this period.  There are several chances for seeing snow after this system which builds the excitement to finally see a sticking snow.  This particular system stands a better chance at hitting more of our members.

 

You're correct, and I didn't mean to imply that there was nothing happening going forward. Just meant that the 9-11th system as currently prog'd does not hold a candle to the Oct system that gave mby ~1.5" qpf on some really nice easterly winds. Convert that to a winter regime and you're looking at a serious storm. Ofc, as you said, we could get a similar energy this time around, just not the same moisture feed. Hey, I'm not complaining, I'll get some white sooner than later, and I just need the grass topped to make it look and feel like the Season with my decorations lit. They look so much better with a bit of snow OTG  :D



#137
jaster220

Posted 04 December 2017 - 08:06 AM

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Also what is different for you when you talk about LRC and then also a 30 day harmonic? Are those 2 different things where you believe one is different/more accurate than the other? Are you saying if a storm comes though on October 1st, than there will also be a storm on November 1st bc of the 30 day and then also a storm on 11/15 because of the LRC? But then that 30 day harmonic also cycles through on 12/1 again and then on 12/15 you have the LRC 45 day from the 30 day harmonic storm on 11/1 and then the 30 day harmonic from the storm from 11/15? So basically any one storm at the beginning of the new cycle is producing a storm every 15 days, not to mention any other different storms? Wouldn't it be non stop storminess? See what I am saying? :)

 

Iiuc, his reference to a 30-day harmonic could be thought of as a "sub-cycle" within the larger full (L)RC, but we'll let him break it down..


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#138
NWLinnCountyIA

Posted 04 December 2017 - 08:13 AM

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I've always been sceptical of the LRC, since a lot of correlations don't happen, and sometimes the patterns are different all together. There could be something there, but if he wants people to trust it, I think he needs to get a peer reviewed paper showing it in action. Because I've honestly only seen rough coincidences, but nothing to really be hugely useful.

2016-17 Snowfall: 

TOTAL: 10.2"

 

(Dec. 8: 0.1") (Dec. 24: 1.1") (Dec. 28: 1.1") (Dec. 29: 5.4") (Dec. 30: 0.3") (Jan. 2: 0.5") (Jan. 11: 0.3") (Jan. 14: 1.4")
 

 

 

 

7cd6ec0da9b0ff60a2d3ac3f2ebcfe1f.png

 

 


#139
jaster220

Posted 04 December 2017 - 08:20 AM

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NAM3km teasing me with a 94 streamer Wed evening.

 

I see you! (over-ambitious short-ranger)

 



#140
Tom

Posted 04 December 2017 - 08:22 AM

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It's interesting how this doesn't match up with what happened in the beginning of October. I went back and looked at the upper levels around that time and what should then match up around the 18-25th of November, and there's really nothing there. The beginning of the month of October, specifically the 5-10th had persistent southwest flow, etc. The cycle for the corresponding part of November looks nothing like it. Is he saying the beginning part of October was not part of the new LRC then? I'm curious as that was our last active time here in Nebraska and now we've basically had nearly 2 months of NOTHING!

According to Gary Lezak, the beginning part of the LRC has already cycled through for LRC cycle #2, in other words, the Oct 6th-7th system has passed.

 

 

 

 

Also what is different for you when you talk about LRC and then also a 30 day harmonic? Are those 2 different things where you believe one is different/more accurate than the other? Are you saying if a storm comes though on October 1st, than there will also be a storm on November 1st bc of the 30 day and then also a storm on 11/15 because of the LRC? But then that 30 day harmonic also cycles through on 12/1 again and then on 12/15 you have the LRC 45 day from the 30 day harmonic storm on 11/1 and then the 30 day harmonic from the storm from 11/15? So basically any one storm at the beginning of the new cycle is producing a storm every 15 days, not to mention any other different storms? Wouldn't it be non stop storminess? See what I am saying? :)

What I mean by the 30-day harmonic cycle is exactly what Jaster said, it's a mini-cycle, that I believe is cycling regularly and I will show you what I mean.  Also, as far as your SW Flow, take a look at the upper jet pattern and there is a SW flow present with this system bc if there wasn't...how would be get a hard cutter???

 

Take a look at the 500mb contour map below on Oct 7th 12z.  Notice a few things A) The storm near NE  B) Vortex near Hudson Bay  C) Ridge poking up near Alaska

 

171204161434.gif

 

 

Now look at the current 12z map below...how can one NOT argue this is similar???

 

gfs_z500_vort_namer_1.png

 

 

Look at the flow coming out of the SW....and the Split Flow in the NE PAC...there is your answer IMHO....

 

 

gfs_uv250_namer_1.png


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#141
jaster220

Posted 04 December 2017 - 09:55 AM

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994 mb closed as of Noon EST

 



#142
LNK_Weather

Posted 04 December 2017 - 10:38 AM

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We have a wind advisory at least!

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2017-2018: 12/23-12/24 (3.6)

 

Total Snowfall for 2017-2018 @ KLNK: 5.6"


#143
jaster220

Posted 04 December 2017 - 10:46 AM

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This is more like the month!

 


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#144
NEJeremy

Posted 04 December 2017 - 10:48 AM

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I've always been sceptical of the LRC, since a lot of correlations don't happen, and sometimes the patterns are different all together. There could be something there, but if he wants people to trust it, I think he needs to get a peer reviewed paper showing it in action. Because I've honestly only seen rough coincidences, but nothing to really be hugely useful.

Exactly. According to Lezak, the pattern around the first week in October has already passed and we are on the second cycle. So according to Lezak than, the roughly 45 day cycle would have come through the week of 11/20-11/25 or so and they looked nothing alike. I guess this storm we're having today is actually part of a mini 30 day harmonic cycle according to Tom, but according to Lezak it's part of his LRC day 42. If you go to his blog here: http://weather2020.c...-winter-storm/ then he shares his thoughts on this system. Apparently this pattern is aligning with what happened back on 10/23 and he shows the maps comparing the two. Here's the beef I have with the LRC. First off the upper level low back in October tracked down through TN it looks like. Today it is going up through MN. Also today there is a piece of energy back in CA that is NOWHERE on the maps back in October where there is a nice ridge. #2, 4, and 5 look similar, but at what point do we call close enough similar? It just seems at times like it's a very broad interpretation of the weather patterns to call them similar. But hey what do I know?

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#145
St Paul Storm

Posted 04 December 2017 - 11:05 AM

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MSP just set a record for Dec 4 by hitting 57F. The 32F line is just now reaching the MN/SD border.

#146
NEJeremy

Posted 04 December 2017 - 11:06 AM

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Some 500 mb images from October and when the cycle should have come through again in November. I'm splitting them up by month. Anyone have any thoughts on how Lezak can consider this similar or what am I missing? I know he's been doing this for 30 years and weather is never perfectly predicted, so I don't know maybe this is just an exception to the rule. I've seen it work lots of times before, but at times I've had my doubts with it as well....

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#147
NEJeremy

Posted 04 December 2017 - 11:10 AM

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November. I just realized this is in the storm thread vs maybe it should be in the winter discussion thread. Sorry! Feel free to move if it's not too much work ;)

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#148
jaster220

Posted 04 December 2017 - 11:12 AM

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While we debate the (L)RC, this blue blob is getting scary close to E Neb peeps, and appears to be a couple curly hairs south of prior prog's fwiw..

 



#149
snowstorm83

Posted 04 December 2017 - 11:21 AM

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Nebraska once you get a bit north of I-80 might as well be SD weatherwise, just don't think anyone actually lives there LOL
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#150
james1976

Posted 04 December 2017 - 11:25 AM

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Im back home now and its 66° 😮