Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Welp thats it, throwin the towel in lol. Maybe next month when it cycles back it will be further south. Sucks that its only every 50 days cause that only gives us a few chances this winter. What do you think Tom?I think you'll see something similar in 30-days. This year there has been overwhelming support of a 30-day harmonic cycle. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 At Tom Did you mis-speak there buddy? I don't think Craig wants a similar outcome, lol Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 At Tom Did you mis-speak there buddy? I don't think Craig wants a similar outcome, lolI know what he said, but there will be more forcing and blocking around next month and this will certainly alter the track. This go around, there is nothing stopping it from tracking farther north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 This thing is trending into a monster storm that ultimately ignites a winter pattern throughout our region.GFS 12z now taking it down to 971 mb north of Superior! CF should be the real-deal Tuesday down our way. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 I know what he said, but there will be more forcing and blocking around next month and this will certainly alter the track. This go around, there is nothing stopping it from tracking farther north.Just messin' with ya my man, all's good. They'll get their storm at some point, as will yby! GFS all over the place with systems/placement after the early week storm Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 12z Euro keeping the system fairly progressive. Keeps snow amounts in check but also ensures this thing doesn’t take a hard left. I’d take it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 2, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Wow, nice uptick in the snow shield and accumulations from the 12z EPS...trended back south from 00z EPS...12z Euro control looks great also for MN peeps. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Thanks for posting the maps, Tom. I only had time to check out the op run. Nice to see the jog back south on the EPS. Headed outside for one last battle with some leaves. Looks like I need to get them off the grass or they might be frozen in place for a while. Not good. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Thanks for posting the maps, Tom. I only had time to check out the op run. Nice to see the jog back south on the EPS. Headed outside for one last battle with some leaves. Looks like I need to get them off the grass or they might be frozen in place for a while. Not good.Just finished that same Battle! I guess my prior post was wrong, we are kicking off with a synoptic storm. I just had hoped for a share-the-wealth bowling ball storm ala Dec '00 but the (L)RC did forecast a Cutter. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Tuesday will be the day when a strong CF ushers in the cold, Arctic air, along w strong winds and snowshowers, especially at night. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Tuesday will be the day when a strong CF ushers in the cold, Arctic air, along w strong winds and snowshowers, especially at night.Yeah, today I completed my Christmas decorations and it felt more like April out there. Tuesday awta be quite the reality check. I liked this from APX: "Fairly decent guidance agreement leads to increasedconfidence that rain will have exited the forecast area by Tuesdaymorning with cooler air beginning to quickly pour into the soon tobe Great White North" 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 2, 2017 Report Share Posted December 2, 2017 Yeah, today I completed my Christmas decorations and it felt more like April out there. Tuesday awta be quite the reality check. I liked this from APX: "Fairly decent guidance agreement leads to increasedconfidence that rain will have exited the forecast area by Tuesdaymorning with cooler air beginning to quickly pour into the soon tobe Great White North"Hopefully...w tons of snow. We need a few huge storms to come. Havent seen one in years here in MI ( 18"+ that is). Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Hopefully...w tons of snow. We need a few huge storms to come. Havent seen one in years here in MI ( 18"+ that is).Hate to disappoint, but just like Neb peeps don't live in snowfall heaven, you didn't move to Big Dog heaven. Actually, you left Big Dog heaven and landed in well, BD Pergatory! Detroit's only had two storms that big since records were kept. Even my area doesn't get an 18+ storm very often. Went from '79 to 2014 without one. Heck, after two, I'm technically not due again til 2075! Nonetheless, historical averages be d*mned, you could still score a great storm. Dec 31st '07 dumped 17" not far from Macomb. Proves it can happen. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Meanwhile, back to this storm! Sorry for straying off topic Tom.. Idk how the Keweenaw avoids a direct hammer blow from THIS?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 And as the CAA works into the entire region, this just has nasty windchills written all over it Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Hate to disappoint, but just like Neb peeps don't live in snowfall heaven, you didn't move to Big Dog heaven. Actually, you left Big Dog heaven and landed in well, BD Pergatory! Detroit's only had two storms that big since records were kept. Even my area doesn't get an 18+ storm very often. Went from '79 to 2014 without one. Heck, after two, I'm technically not due again til 2075! Nonetheless, historical averages be d*mned, you could still score a great storm. Dec 31st '07 dumped 17" not far from Macomb. Proves it can happen.Your not disappointing.....but, No comparison w EC storms. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 00z NAM deepens this storm nearly 1mb/hr from 18z Mon (996mb) till 09z Tue (978mb)...impressive... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 3km NAM flies a 983 directly overhead and continues deepening into NW WI. Wowzers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 00z NAM deepens this storm nearly 1mb/hr from 18z Mon (996mb) till 09z Tue (978mb)...impressive... 3km NAM flies a 983 directly overhead and continues deepening into NW WI. Wowzers.Yea, I can't buy that for a second, especially since the NAM (especially 3km) has a tendancy to overly deepen systems especially when intense precip/convection is nearby. We've seen this in the past, and during tropical season when the NAM suite wanted to deepen almost every system to Cat 4+ intensity. It isn't as overdone here, but I bet it's at least somewhat so. 1 Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Yea, I can't buy that for a second, especially since the NAM (especially 3km) has a tendancy to overly deepen systems especially when intense precip/convection is nearby. We've seen this in the past, and during tropical season when the NAM suite wanted to deepen almost every system to Cat 4+ intensity. It isn't as overdone here, but I bet it's at least somewhat so.0z GFS really isn’t that far off from the NAMs in terms of pressure and intensity. The Euro is basically the only one that isnt wrapping this thing up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 0z GFS really isn’t that far off from the NAMs in terms of pressure and intensity. The Euro is basically the only one that isnt wrapping this thing up.Euro goes 995 to 975 mb in 24 hrs. While not technically bombo-genesis, I'd call that wrapped up in my book. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 My local weatherman just mentioned that numerous snowshowers next week w some possible accumulations. 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Euro goes 995 to 975 mb in 24 hrs. While not technically bombo-genesis, I'd call that wrapped up in my book.Fair enough! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 All guidance is suggesting a track just east or right over MSP which isn’t ideal but bc this storm deepens so quickly that defo band pivots through and can lay down a quick hitting snowfall. NW trend is not MSP’s friend and that’s what usually happens with such strong storms. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Well, we won’t see much (if any) snow here in E/C MN but now have a chance of thunder tomorrow afternoon. W MN gonna have fun with possible blizzard conditions. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Well, we won’t see much (if any) snow here in E/C MN but now have a chance of thunder tomorrow afternoon. W MN gonna have fun with possible blizzard conditions.I’m hoping you guys can score at least enough to cover up the grass! Such a great storm but the NW trend is not your friend ATM. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 I’m hoping you guys can score at least enough to cover up the grass! Such a great storm but the NW trend is not your friend ATM.Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.If the NW trend ends up happening, the GFS won this battle 48+ hours out IMO. It has been steadfast on the heaviest snows NW of MSP as the Euro was suggesting a bit more southerly route during this range. We'll see how this ends up but there is still room for some shifts. I still think if this bombs out you can cash in on the back wash snows bc normally when systems go neg tilt there is that "wild card" defo band and its always fickle trying to figure that out at this range. Both NAM's are suggesting it coming near MSP. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.True, but you can end up getting a light snowshower activity and get that dusting in your neck of the woods. Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Nice to see the swath of WSWatches actually south of Canada, if not hitting MSP as was hoped for. I'm with Tom, and agree, it's these bombing storms that go negative-tilt that give a legit shot at backside wrap around in the path of the departing SLP. Hopefully at least a 1-3 coating to make it look the season! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted December 3, 2017 Author Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 12z GFS with a 982mb monster just north of MSP...the seasonal trend of monster GL's storms continues... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 12z GFS with a 982mb monster just north of MSP...the seasonal trend of monster GL's storms continues...Awesome, and yeah, this storm cycling thru now with winter cold air is way stronger than the Oct version! I see MQT acknowledges my post about a pounding in store for Keweenaw peeps: Special Weather StatementNational Weather Service Marquette MI541 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 MIZ001>004-009-084-032200-Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Gogebic-Southern Houghton-Including the cities of Copper Harbor, Ontonagon, Houghton,Hancock, L`Anse, Ironwood, Kenton, and Sidnaw541 AM EST Sun Dec 3 2017 /441 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2017/ ...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL MAY DEVELOP LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAYNIGHT OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN... A strong and deepening low pressure system tracking from westernLake Superior to northern Ontario Monday night into Tuesday willlead to very windy conditions beginning late Monday night acrosswestern Upper Michigan. Gusts over 50 mph are possible. Winds thisstrong could break tree limbs and lead to sporadic power outages.Waves building as high as 15 to 20 feet on the west side of theKeweenaw Peninsula late Monday night through Tuesday afternooncould result in significant beach erosion and possible damage tolakeshore property. Cold air sweeping in behind the system will change rain to snowlate Monday night. Significant lake enhanced snow and blowing snowis expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, especially over thehigher terrain of western Upper Michigan. The strong winds, heavysnow and blowing snow could result in hazardous travel late Mondaynight through Tuesday Night. The worst conditions, with potentialwhiteouts at times, are expected on the Keweenaw Peninsula. Those with travel plans over western Upper Michigan may need tomake adjustments to safely arrive on time. Stay tuned for updatedinformation from the Marquette National Weather Service. $$ JLA Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 I miss the yellow Bliz Watch product! Not just from a wx weenie standpoint either. I mean, one glimpse at the hazard map could tell a peep that the NWS was expecting truly bad conditions, not just snow falling. Now, you have to go read the text to find that out. Was quite surprised to see how many are calling for bliz conditions and dangerous travel. Hope it doesn't take a tragedy before they re-think that one. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Meh, these backside changeovers rarely seem to work out. I’m sure the colder air crashing in will be quite dry, possibly limiting snow chances even further. Just give me a few mood flakes at this point.Looking at this, you have a shot at that! Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 Looking at this, you have a shot at that!usa_ICast (4).gifI’m throwing in the towel in hopes that reverse psychology also applies to weather. Haha. It’s all going to depend on how far NW this thing continues to trend. Could definitely see an hour or two of light snow here as it stands now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 A chance of thunderstorms tomorrow early afternoon with a high just shy of 60, then around an inch of snow tomorrow night. It sucks to miss the brunt of the snow but cool to have such a dynamic system rolling through. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted December 3, 2017 Report Share Posted December 3, 2017 I’m throwing in the towel in hopes that reverse psychology also applies to weather. Haha. It’s all going to depend on how far NW this thing continues to trend. Could definitely see an hour or two of light snow here as it stands now.Every bit helps, eh! 1 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 NAM32 drags a pretty large tail across MN Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 NAM/4KM NAM want to extend the snow band further south and push it through eastern Nebraska down here. May only be a couple hours worth but just seeing some snow in the air would be nice! 1 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted December 4, 2017 Report Share Posted December 4, 2017 NAM32 drags a pretty large tail across MN nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_9.pngLooking like a solid line of storms down here. 2010 analog in play here? (New years eve 2010) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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