August 2015 in the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

I think the west side would have gotten some relief if the ULL had sat over is much of the week as originally depicted. The period when it stalled offshore and steered t-storm rich SSE flow over the region was the killer.

 

It's been too hot and dry.

Should have tried harder, fail boy.

[TT-SEA]

I think the best pattern right now is one with no wind on the east side.    Hot and calm would probably be better than windy and cooler.     I guess the best pattern would be a region-wide soaking but that is tough to pull off in August. 

[Jesse]

Should have tried harder, fail boy.

I prayed to Lars Larson every night and the model runs only got worse. Really shook my faith.

[Deweydog]

I prayed to Lars Larson every night and the model runs only got worse. Really shook my faith.

Should've dangled yourself off a bridge to block the passage of the low.

[Jesse]

Should've dangled yourself off a bridge to block the passage of the low.

[Jesse]

The continued heat is wearing me out. It is ridiculous.

I'm with you bruh.

 

We hiked to Bull of the Woods lookout yesterday and it was a scorcher. Some cool breezes near the top, fortunately. Looked over toward Table Rock to the west and thought of you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At least Lars got that traffic flowing again in PDX the other day.

[BLI snowman]

I think the west side would have gotten some relief if the ULL had sat over us much of the week as originally depicted. The period when it stalled offshore and steered t-storm rich SSE flow over the region was the killer.

 

It's been too hot and dry.

 

The problem was that the ULL was wimpy in terms of precipitable water. Most of the region got d*ck in the way of rain from it and from the mountains eastward all the associated convection with it was dry and it stayed warm.

[Jesse]

The problem was that the ULL was wimpy in terms of precipitable water. Most of the region got d*ck in the way of rain from it and from the mountains eastward all the associated convection with it was dry and it stayed warm.

Hopefully next week's trough trends the same way!

 

At least we would avoid any devastatingly cool breezes, give those firefighters a break.

[Deweydog]

Hopefully next week's trough trends the same way!

 

At least we would avoid any devastatingly cool breezes, give those firefighters a break.

Those "cool" breezes yesterday killed those firefighters.

 

#toosoon

#subsidencesaveslives

[TT-SEA]

Yeah... why is someone still cheering for a pattern that would result in wind on the east side of the Cascades?     It does not take much troughing to make it windy over there.   

[BLI snowman]

Hopefully next week's trough trends the same way!

 

At least we would avoid any devastatingly cool breezes, give those firefighters a break.

 

A severe marine push would probably be about the worst thing right now, next to the North Koreans invading. 

 

The cost to boaters and firefighters alike would be high. Fireboats in particular would be hard hit.

[Jesse]

Those "cool" breezes yesterday killed those firefighters.

 

#toosoon

#subsidencesaveslives

It is silly to assert that we need to avoid troughing and associated rain, which would actually help put the fires out, just to avoid the possibility of it getting windy over there. Yesterday's event was a tragedy, wrong place wrong time. Some troughing and rain would still be far more beneficial to the east side than continued heat and thunderstorm chances, though, wind notwithstanding.

[BLI snowman]

Yeah... why is someone still cheering for a pattern that would result in wind on the east side of the Cascades?     It does not take much troughing to make it windy over there.   

 

Cheering on 560dm heights could be the equivalent of setting the match yourself. 

 

Hello high elevation frost, bye bye Twisp. 

[Deweydog]

It is silly to assert that we need to avoid troughing and associated rain, which would actually help put the fires out, just to avoid the possibility of it getting windy over there. Yesterday's event was a tragedy, wrong place wrong time. Some troughing and rain would still be far more beneficial to the east side than continued heat and thunderstorm chances, though, wind notwithstanding.

This whole conversation is silly.

 

happens.

[TT-SEA]

This whole conversation is silly.

 

s**t happens.

 

Yep.  

[Jesse]

This whole conversation is silly.

 

s**t happens.

Incredibly silly.

[richard mann]

(.. cross-referene.)
 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/609-approaching-pattern-discussion/?p=83150

[TT-SEA]

Most concerning right now is that there will be significant wind over there today and tomorrow... courtesy of our little cool down.

[richard mann]

.. Fall-like, today here more south. 

 

— Following a series of much warmer days. Main and perhaps the last of the stronger seasonal warmth having begun to taper, yesterday.

[BLI snowman]

Most concerning right now is that there will be significant wind over there today and tomorrow... courtesy of our little cool down.

 

I'm no expert but I'd imagine firefighters are always a bit aided by cooler temperatures and steady wind direction. High wind speeds can have a detrimental impact of course, but the problem often is the varying wind directions and speeds that make it difficult to build a stable front line. Steady NW winds and cooler temps could help them gain some ground.

[Deweydog]

Incredibly silly.

680 people lose their lives each year in snow/ice related traffic collisions across the country. Fire season's gonna really have to get its together to match that kind preference-pacifying carnage.

[Jesse]

680 people lose their lives each year in snow/ice related traffic collisions across the country. Fire season's gonna really have to get its s**t together to match that kind preference-pacifying carnage.

I figured you'd conveniently forget this and focus on me, but I wasn't the one who brought it up.

[Deweydog]

I figured you'd conveniently forget this and focus on me, but I wasn't the one who brought it up.

Serious stuff, my man. Serious stuff. No amount of fall ball can bring those collision victims back.

[Jesse]

Serious stuff, my man. Serious stuff. No amount of fall ball can bring those collision victims back.

Tell the person who started this morning's preference battle retardation.

[Deweydog]

Tell the person who started this morning's preference battle retardation.

"Wish we hadn't lucked out."

 

Were you gambling online and won diffluent flow??? You have a problem...

[Deweydog]

Canadian's trying...

[Jesse]

"Wish we hadn't lucked out."

 

Were you gambling online and won diffluent flow??? You have a problem...

The argument started over how detrimental cooling trends are for wildland firefighters, historically.

 

But yes, it was all me.

[Deweydog]

The argument started over how detrimental cooling trends are for wildland firefighters, historically.

 

But yes, it was all me.

This one, ironically, was/is. It's an anomaly. You don't typically see potentially damaging north wind events in the Okanogan Valley in August.

 

110 degree highs wouldn't be too helpful either.

 

And yes, typically it is mostly you and Tim.

[TT-SEA]

Celebrate sunshine and warmth in the land of constant troughing!

 

This is where it actually started.   But whatever.

[TT-SEA]

Canadian's trying...

 

 

Can't find the 12Z run updated yet.

[TT-SEA]

Before I get messages about the callous nature of some of our members, the lot of you need to cool it. I have firefighters as friends and family, and the loss of life of those who fight fires isn't easy for some of us to take lightly.

 

Also, stop chiding others for "rooting" for one kind of weather pattern over another. We are weather enthusiasts, the optimum word being that we are generally enthusiastic about the weather. If we are going to go down that path about how some of us should root for weather that might cause harm, then I'll start censoring those who cheer for cold or stormy weather. Some of you might need a reminder that no matter how much we might hope and want a particular weather pattern to manifest itself, we don't have that power.

 

I hope to experience a winter akin to January 1950, but I'm sure that will cost the region in dollars and lives. My favorite weather memory was the Hanukkah Eve storm, but that event was partly responsible for the deaths of a few around the Sound. It's a morbid fact of most of our passions, but I won't have a community shame others for want of a cool breeze on hot August day.

 

TL;DR - Knock it off.

 

 

You were pretty snarky this morning as well.    

[Deweydog]

Can't find the 12Z run updated yet.

Pretty similar to the 00z.

[Jesse]

Canadian's trying...

Trying not to be so vague?

[Deweydog]

Trying not to be so vague?

I assume most people just look at it.

[TT-SEA]

I assume most people just look at it.

Every link I have is still showing 00Z run. Link me.

[Deweydog]

Every link I have is still showing 00Z run. Link me.

 

Only goes to 180, but I like that.

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html

[TT-SEA]

Nice and misty outside in Bellevue. They are setting up the farmer's market outside my office and one of the guys mentioned that he loved the return of something familiar.

 

Familiar in August would be sunny and warm.  

[Jesse]

I assume most people just look at it.

Out and about at the moment.

 

Check your PM, btw.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF is closer with the trough/ULL next week.