Leaderboard

0.24” here. I finally hit the jackpot on one of these!

And there it is, the first mention of the s-word for the season.

Really liking how the post-Equinox warm signal has been watered down to 2 or 3 seasonably mild days, followed by what will probably end up being the first jet extension of the season. Blessings to go 'round for all. Right now it's 64F and partly cloudy here with filtered sunshine, nearing 4pm. Lyphe is good.

12Z GFS hour 240 precip maps. Of interest is how closely the two ensemble means (Euro and GFS) agree with each other. The ridiculously wet GFS operational stands alone so probably isn’t going to happen.

This "Blocking Party" up in Canada is something else...#hudsonbayblock...its making things rather interesting tracking this autumn system that has a similar characteristic of a Bowling Ball system! Look at that Beauty of a Block up Top... 0z GEFS 500mb animation is a wonderful way to close out SEP and open up OCT. Say Hello to the Aleutian Low!

Significant rain totals on the GFS by next Wednesday. But its spread out more from Sunday through mid-week.

Already down to 47 degrees!

Chilly wind blowing at soccer practice this evening. This person has quite the view I’m sure.

12Z Euro hour 240 precip maps.

12z ICON brings in some rain on Monday.

I live near there. The weather changes pretty quickly with a sharp cut off from about 169 in Maple Valley towards the foothills. We are literally a few minutes from the Cascade foothills.

Snow Wizard has mentioned it before.

Progressive wave train like the GFS is showing is probably not the way to go, given recent history and the ongoing pattern blahness.

The 12Z GEM was very ridgy and warm... but its 12Z ensemble mean looks more like the GFS so I would say the 12Z GEM can be ignored today.

I hope we all like rain. After this event kicks it off, we're going to look and feel like the Seattle of the south with all the clouds for the duration of the forecast.

PSCZ developed over the Seattle area and producing light rain right now. BFI picked up 0.10” so far since 4am. A surprisingly good amount.

ORD picked up a solid soaker yesterday with 1.62" of rainfall. More coming tomorrow morning from a wave heading out of IA into N IL. Sorta reminds of a wave of SN that forms along an arctic frontal boundary in the Winter. Where's my mind at today??? Happy freakin' Monday!

This is actually me.

SEA NWS AFD very bullish on a potential AR early next week.

@Phil used to pass through there on his trips in to Seattle from Stampede Pass

I was doing some research and came across Palmer, Washington. Never heard of this place and it averages 90 inches of rain and 36 inches of snow per year. Located right past Ravensdale. Sounds like the place to be if you like snow and rain.

BFI picked up 0.22 from this morning. Pretty good to see.

Sorry I let my moose out for a walk and it went after a cat and got lost.

More is coming tomorrow.

It will be a fun game to watch. I have to admit... I will be cheering for the Ducks and want them to win big which is something I never do. I would just like to see Colorado knocked down several notches.

Pikes Peak, CO already had more than 8" back on 9/14...Winter has come early! https://denvergazette.com/outtherecolorado/news/snow-stacks-up-on-colorado-peak-with-8-more-inches-on-the-way/article_f17af674-53f3-11ee-8f08-1b0d62b700fd.html

AR action farther south on the 00Z GFS... main event one week from today

Made it to the summit of Mt. Seymour on the last day of the last weekend of astronomical summer. Could definitely feel a weather system was coming in as I got close to the trailhead on the return trip; it was getting quite chilly.

The GFS op runs have been outliers for the period that it’s showing the AR so I’m surprise the NWS is quite bullish on it. Doesn’t mean it won’t happen, but without the Euro support on it, it should really means nothing atm. 12z and 18z precip ensembles.

Yeah, just like the high number of sacks in his career have been at least 50% on him.

18z is nice.

These early fall systems kind of limp along, they can be hard to predict, but they can deliver nourishing quantities of rain for the locales they directly impact and bless.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/38432336/sean-payton-eyeing-ways-fix-broncos-clock-management-issues This is actually a Russ issue more than anything. It was an issue when he was here, it was an issue when Hackett was there last year with him. And it’s now an issue with Payton as his coach. You can’t go through 3 different coaches and still have the same issue and think it’s not you. Russ usually takes way too long to get the playcalling in at huddle. The Hawks replaced a few OC’s because of this. Refusing wristband does this.

Tim is going to go discuss it on the fox 12 blog

Looks like summer is continuing for the foreseeable future.

12Z ECMWF is further west than the GFS. It actually shows a totally sunny and warm day on Monday with highs in the 80s even up here.

Topeka has officially received only 0.30" of rain for Sept and is running a -1.76" deficit for the month after an already very dry meteorological summer. The models are backing off any beneficial rain for the short term anyway though still some hope for the end of the week. We just can't buy a decent rain around here.

Yeah, based on the models I was expecting maybe 0.01” or so this morning. Convergence zone has slipped down here though. Tomorrow should be an even better soaking.

Really gusty tonight. Loving what these models are showing!! I’m going to get the AR I wanted and I think I’ll avoid the frost. Score

@Black Hole @OKwx2k4

Rain is here. 61.3˚F.

He needs this man.

I just took a selfie

I think it was a payback for the March slammer that we got and pretty sure ORD peeps were not included in that one. There was also that late January storm that never waivered from slamming SEMI. I think you got a few inches of snow tho from that with a follow-in clipper iirc.

Showing signs of stability in 3.4 with declines in 1.2. Beautiful.

89*. 27% humidity Not bad at all.