December Observations and Discussions

[Maxim]

Yawn you got so excited when the euro showed warm temps. 7+ days out

it's still showing those warm temps. Maybe not quite as extreme, but still well above normal.

[Grizzcoat]

you okay there man?

Taken aback  that "Lord Maxim" would ask!!! You should all ready know!-- your "Lord Maxim" --- omniscient.

Need to know if flight conditions will be LIFR or IFR come 12Z the 28th for MSP to DSM.

Let me know ASAP. )

[Geos]

The Euro cranks out this much liquid...someone will need a Canoe...that is just insanity if it comes to fruition in the month of December.  Something you would see in the tropics...let alone the Midwest.  Come on cold air!

 

Is any of that snow? I see a lake enhancement signature there.

 

Promising looking.

 

 

Well above normal temperatures look to be moving out at day 10. Source region in northern Ontario is actually tapping into below normal temperatures.

 

The storm is going to want to shoot for Lake Ontario with the blocking high to the north.

 

[winterfreak]

People are on edge here lately. If you don't like comments someone makes then just ignore it. Even if the same comments persist. It's a waste of energy.

[Tom]

Is any of that snow? I see a lake enhancement signature there.

 

Promising looking.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121812/ecmwf_T850_ncus_11.png

 

Well above normal temperatures look to be moving out at day 10. Source region in northern Ontario is actually tapping into below normal temperatures.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121812/ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

The storm is going to want to shoot for Lake Ontario with the blocking high to the north.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2015121812/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_namer_11.png

That snow in SE WI is on the north end of the precip band that is cold enough to support snow.  It's going to be a while till models get a better handle on this system.  I like the fact that there is a cold air supply to the north and a good snow pack in southern Canada and by that time there will be snow in the Northwoods which will help maintain the air cold.

[Money]

it's still showing those warm temps. Maybe not quite as extreme, but still well above normal.

So it's ok for you to post maps of warm temps. 7+ days out but people can't post snow maps 7 days out? You don't find that hypocritical of you?

[Geos]

Just had a nice snow shower come thru and the ground is now all white. So its true Lake Michigan is still there. Its now 28° with light snow falling

 

Nice

I wouldn't be surprised if you get a burst of heavier snow later as this weak wave comes through the flow out of the west. Moderate snow is possible here later on today and it could pick up some moisture of the lake as it travels your way.

[Andrew NE]

Everyone is in here because they enjoy weather warm or cold, rain or snow, but can we start these warm loving clowns there own thread and they can go to town with each other?

[Andrew NE]

and before all the troll comments start, you were right we have been well above average, everyone knows it and those that said it would get cold have recognized it did not happen. Deal With It! You were all pretty mute last year while we were in the deep freeze, yes you caught some crap for it, but my god your beating a dead horse!

[Tom]

Latest MJO run is showing both the GFS/EURO taking it out of the warm phases by the 26th or so and into the COD...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/NCPE_phase_21m_small.gif

 

Would be nice if the Euro extended out into Phase 8, 1, 2 or 3 in January...

[Geos]

I think I'll start a medium range thread and anyone can discuss whatever weather is seen beyond 5 days in it. Save this thread for short term and current observations/thoughts.

 

-SN has started here. Little dusting on pretty much all surfaces.

[Maxim]

Start a banter/complaint thread. Problem solved.

[james1976]

Had a few heavy show showers today. Only really amounted to a dusting. Got slick though. Way windy and down to 20 degrees. Actually feels and somewhat looks like Winter.

[james1976]

Regarding that big storm around the 28th: Does the Euro just have snowfall in the plains or is it still snowing at the end of the run? Looks like it stops before it gets to Iowa.

[winterfreak]

It's still snowing.

[winterfreak]

GFS on 18z is wagons south a little. STL gets dumped on.

[james1976]

High Pressure really pushing on that storm on the 18z GFS.

[james1976]

I think that H may play a big role in the 'direction' this storm takes.

[GDR]

[Money]

[GDR]

Any reason why?

where the high is positioned and its strengh

[GDR]

Any reason why?

any reason why not?

[Money]

where the high is positioned and its strengh

Terrible reasoning

[GDR]

Terrible reasoning

ok

[Money]

Remember when you said there's no way the snowstorm in Nov. was going to stay south because of lack of blocking? 

[stratosjeff]

^there's some real tools on this board. It gets so annoying and frustrating to filter through 3 pages of bickering to get a little information by the people that are knowledgeable (not gdr). Thank you to the people that post current facts. To the ones that act like constant jags, have a great Christmas.

[westMJim]

Good morning on this cloudy and cold (for this winter) Saturday.  With a temp here at my house of 25° this is the coldest temp of this month. It is also 25° at the airport and they have gotten down to 24° so 24° is the coldest it has officially gotten this December. The record warmest minimum for any December is 18° in 1923. (that has led me to the next two post below) With the snow we had yesterday that now brings Grand Rapids officially up to w whopping 0.6” here at my house there is just a trace of snow on the ground now.

[westMJim]

OK its now getting into late December and its time to see where several locations in west Michigan stack up so far this month. For the following locations I have the currents December mean temp. The departure from average and the snow fall. I also have listed the current record warmest mean with year set and the record lowest December snow fall total and year.

Grand Rapids  41.1° (36.6° 1923)  +10.2° snow fall 0.6” (0.8” 1947)

Lansing             40.9° (36.8° 1889)  +10.8° snow fall  0.4” (0.0” 1889)

Muskegon         41.6° (37.2° 1923)  +9.8° snowfall trace  (unknown)

All three locations are on tract to have their warmest Decembers on record with one of the lowest snow fall totals also will in play.

[NEJeremy]

who cares, this will be mostly rain for the majority of us anyway.

You obviously care since you're taking the time to post the same sh*t everytime. You're the one that seems to have the most anger about this weather pattern. How many times have you actually wasted all of our time, by just replying "lol"?

[GDR]

[Maxim]

You obviously care since you're taking the time to post the same sh*t everytime. You're the one that seems to have the most anger about this weather pattern. How many times have you actually wasted all of our time, by just replying "lol"?

you care obviously, since you took the time to reply to my post.

[NEJeremy]

you care obviously, since you took the time to reply to my post.

Good comeback Chet. It all makes sense now everybody, Maxim is 6 years old!

[bainbridgekid]

I'm visiting family in Evanston, Illinois for the next 12 days so I've been following your weather closely lately in desperate search of snow.

 

Pretty crazy to see green grass here, though it is quite chilly today obviously.

 

I flew over Minnesota and it was insane how much open water there was on the lakes up there. Feels like Mid November.

[jaster220]

Didn't get into that bull's-eye band like I hoped, but scored a solid 2 inches of LES that started about 6:30 Friday evening. Santa had to take Mama Claus and girly-girl to a Christmas function and then he got busy shopping himself. It was SO great to have the snow coming down - really brightened Santa's mood. He was in the holiday spirit of giving and to have real holiday weather was awesome! Had a couple periods of 1"/hr rates ripping with nice sized decent dendrites too. Folks were out enjoying the decorations downtown and it was all so festive like Courier and Ives kinda scenery. Now that's December - finally! Santa still has a smile on his merry ole face today cuz the ground is nice and white for his deer and sleigh..

[Tom]

Didn't get into that bull's-eye band like I hoped, but scored a solid 2 inches of LES that started about 6:30 Friday evening. Santa had to take Mama Claus and girly-girl to a Christmas function and then he got busy shopping himself. It was SO great to have the snow coming down - really brightened Santa's mood. He was in the holiday spirit of giving and to have real holiday weather was awesome! Had a couple periods of 1"/hr rates ripping with nice sized decent dendrites too. Folks were out enjoying the decorations downtown and it was all so festive like Courier and Ives kinda scenery. Now that's December - finally! Santa still has a smile on his merry ole face today cuz the ground is nice and white for his deer and sleigh..

Jealous!  Last night I went out shopping myself and got under neath a heavy snow squall that whitened up the scene.  I am with you as to how easily a snowfall can change the mood/spirit with the holidays around the corner.  

[Tom]

I'm visiting family in Evanston, Illinois for the next 12 days so I've been following your weather closely lately in desperate search of snow.

 

Pretty crazy to see green grass here, though it is quite chilly today obviously.

 

I flew over Minnesota and it was insane how much open water there was on the lakes up there. Feels like Mid November.

Are you staying near the Lake up in Evanston?  It's not a bad community up that way.  Regarding the open lakes, I'm sure the ice fisherman aren't too happy esp up there when hunting/fishing is almost a way of life!

[bainbridgekid]

Are you staying near the Lake up in Evanston?  It's not a bad community up that way.  Regarding the open lakes, I'm sure the ice fisherman aren't too happy esp up there when hunting/fishing is almost a way of life!

I'm about 3 miles from the lake.

 

Definitely a nice community. I have a lot of family here, so I've come many, many times over the years.

 

Just bummed I won't get a white Christmas. It never snows when I come here. Sorry guys. 

[Tom]

I'm about 3 miles from the lake.

 

Definitely a nice community. I have a lot of family here, so I've come many, many times over the years.

 

Just bummed I won't get a white Christmas. It never snows when I come here. Sorry guys. 

Chances of a White Christmas out here are like less than 50%...close to 45% actually...we haven't had many over the past few years...2 years ago it snowed a couple inches on Christmas, but before then I don't remember actually when we had a solid snow pack around here on Christmas.  Enjoy your stay!

[Geos]

I'm about 3 miles from the lake.

 

Definitely a nice community. I have a lot of family here, so I've come many, many times over the years.

 

Just bummed I won't get a white Christmas. It never snows when I come here. Sorry guys. 

 

Yeah last December it was cold and dry, and this month it is mild and wet. Can't seem to win very good in December lately.

[jaster220]

Jealous!  Last night I went out shopping myself and got under neath a heavy snow squall that whitened up the scene.  I am with you as to how easily a snowfall can change the mood/spirit with the holidays around the corner.  

 

A couple of pic's from Friday's squalls in SMI..a pre-Christmas gift wrapped in white