Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 JMA Weeklies signing a stormy tune for the month of March. -EPO/-AO signal on average through the entire month. A very wet/sub normal temp pattern is being forecast from the Plains on East. As the seasonal jet weakens, blocking develops over the pole, I would expect to see systems track slower and have more potential to dig into stronger storm systems. I think there will be many locations that will end up above normal in the snowfall dept for the month of March. Meanwhile, 06z GFS came north with the axis of heavy snow...expect fluctuations this far out, nonetheless, another potential big dog on the horizon. Yet again, GFS has been scary consistent showing this storm run to run while Euro playing catch up. 00z EPS showing a similar track to the 00z Euro Operational. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z GFS is in Minnesota this run. (Axis of heavy snow) Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 00z FIM-9... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 If its a big dog I like MSP to central northern WI Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Another model in Minnesota, anyone have the GGEM pivotal is slow. Quote 2021-22 Snowfall: (Hiawatha) TOTAL: 10.2" (12/28: 3.0") (12/29: 0.8") (1/1: 6.4") Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Another model in Minnesota, anyone have the GGEM pivotal is slow.From what I can see the GGEM is a weak turd of a frontal passage. Wouldnt worry about the GGEM in this timeframe. People say the EURO has been bad but the GGEM is god awful in the medium range Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 GEM has lost it. Onto the EURO now. DGEX had this at 6z If the AO could drop sooner, I think this will be south like ^ again. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 oh good the dgex... i doubt another storm could whiff geos's backyard Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 My early thinking on this is nothing will come of this or at least nothing for our area. Also, the Sunday-Monday system from a few days ago looked really good and look at it now...down to nadda. Just the way this winter has been and don't expect it to change. March is upon us and so is HS baseball for my son and would like for them to be able to be outdoors but again I know better then to expect that around these parts. If a storm does come then make it BIG as who really cares about a nuissance event like yesterday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 My early thinking on this is nothing will come of this or at least nothing for our area. Also, the Sunday-Monday system from a few days ago looked really good and look at it now...down to nadda. Just the way this winter has been and don't expect it to change. March is upon us and so is HS baseball for my son and would like for them to be able to be outdoors but again I know better then to expect that around these parts. If a storm does come then make it BIG as who really cares about a nuissance event like yesterday. If the LRC is onto something then the system will want to come back to a similar track - like the November 20-21st storm. Don't break out the baseball glove just yet. El Niño spring's are usually slow to start. After the super nino of 97-98 there was a 8-10" snowstorm the first week of the month.That southern jet stream has to come back north sometime. Just so everyone is prepared~ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 This PNA signal should help carve out a trough in the Great Lakes early next week. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 If the LRC is onto something then the system will want to come back to a similar track - like the November 20-21st storm. Don't break out the baseball glove just yet. El Niño spring's are usually slow to start. After the super nino of 97-98 there was a 8-10" snowstorm the first week of the month.That southern jet stream has to come back north sometime. Just so everyone is prepared~Especially when you look at the JMA Weelies/LRC and El Nino March analogs, Winter isn't over for quite some time if your near the Midwest/Lakes region. The plains will have their bouts of very warm temp spikes like they have all season long. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Push it north!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 GEFS south of operational and in surprisingly close agreement. Will start a thread right after I see the EURO. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 EURO likes south. Nice strong high, good low position. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GDR Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 I'm ready for spring Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Goes negative tilt and stays south of this area. Band of 12-20" from N IL into MI. 6-10" in the southeastern 1/2 of Iowa. Going to be a huge run up here. Colder. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 I'm ready for spring We get that GDR. Before actually scoring this snowstorm so was I Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z Euro...each run catching up to a better phase... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Goes negative tilt and stays south of this area. http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160225/12Z/f144/sfcmslpconus.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022512/ecmwf_T850_ncus_7.png Band of 12-20" from N IL into MI. 6-10" in the southeastern 1/2 of Iowa. Going to be a huge run up here. Colder. Now maybe WOOF WOOF time for a bunch of us, eh GEOS? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z Euro has 3 storms next week each 1.5 days apart hitting the Midwest/Lakes...lol...snowmagedon??? Time to look for flights back home??? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 This reminds me of GHD blizzard. If I remember correctly models were showing that storm 7 days out. I recall it spitting out 30" totals in some parts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Now maybe WOOF WOOF time for a bunch of us, eh GEOS? Yeah this is a big dog. Time for a thread. GDR. One more storm and then you can have your spring. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z Euro...next 10 days...subtract .10-.50qpf in MI from the Sun system bc it'll be mostly rain... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 12z Euro has 3 storms next week each 1.5 days apart hitting the Midwest/Lakes...lol...snowmagedon??? Time to look for flights back home??? Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Started - theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/1220-march-1st-2nd-plains-to-great-lakes-snowstormblizzard/ Looks like a glacier on the EURO!^ Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Now that Euro is on board everyone is jumping for joy. It has not done that well 5+ days out so I would temper my excitement. It does have the GFS on it's side but farther north so at least it has a friend. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthandturf Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Give me two weeks of snow to plow and then we can start spring. Headed to Arizona on the 16th, so I hope it doesn't snow then. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Now that Euro is on board everyone is jumping for joy. It has not done that well 5+ days out so I would temper my excitement. It does have the GFS on it's side but farther north so at least it has a friend.Climo would favor a north track but this year has been far from normal. I'm just glad to see the Euro finally show a phased storm. All the ensembles show a storm through C IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2016 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Now that Euro is on board everyone is jumping for joy. It has not done that well 5+ days out so I would temper my excitement. It does have the GFS on it's side but farther north so at least it has a friend. It handled this departing storm pretty well from 5 days and under. Only 105 hours before the low kicks out in Colorado. This was the EURO 5 days out for this past storm. That low position is less than 50 miles from reality. Right now I feel pretty good the lower lakes will get hit. 1 Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 Looks like february continues the string of above average months. September through february. March has a chacne to break the string I think... Looks like some record highs could be in trouble this weekend... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 This reminds me of GHD blizzard. If I remember correctly models were showing that storm 7 days out. I recall it spitting out 30" totals in some parts. How much did you end up getting from the recent Blitz??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
indianajohn Posted February 25, 2016 Report Share Posted February 25, 2016 8-9" would be fair guess too much drifting to get an accurate measurement. I do have 3ft drifts around my house LOL!! 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 8-9" would be fair guess too much drifting to get an accurate measurement. I do have 3ft drifts around my house LOL!! Despite the wetness of the first 2/3rds of the system, that Lehs band that formed overnight was much more normal and drifted good. 2nd snow day here in Marshall. There's some large fields around Marshall and where I-94 and I-69 junction. With a NW wind, you get a good fetch across the field and a drop-off of terrain at the hwy right-of-way. Those drifts are easily 6-8 foot! I'm a huge fan of drifts, so it was fantastic to see all the drifts after work yesterday / last night. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 Looking more and more like only areas with sold snowpack see any extended below normal temps Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 The next 2 weeks have storms every 1-2 days on the EPS over the last 3-4 runs. Plains/Lakes look very active and some members showing big winter storms. March climo showing itself. Where was this in Dec-Feb??? Doh! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 The next 2 weeks have storms every 1-2 days on the EPS over the last 3-4 runs. Plains/Lakes look very active and some members showing big winter storms. March climo showing itself. Where was this in Dec-Feb??? Doh!Ehhhhh.... the GFS is very blah the next week or so. Unless of course you enjoy the 50's in the near term. The GFS does drop an inch on some of us in the next 350 hours so that is exciting at least Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z Euro still showing 3 systems in a row next week...Tue/Wed...Thu/Fri...Sat/Sun...temps have cooled off in the 5-7 day range after the 1 storm departs near the Midwest/Lakes region. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 26, 2016 Report Share Posted February 26, 2016 12z Euro still showing 3 systems in a row next week...Tue/Wed...Thu/Fri...Sat/Sun...temps have cooled off in the 5-7 day range after the 1 storm departs near the Midwest/Lakes region.Just curious to know where these storms are setting up for late next week Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted February 27, 2016 Report Share Posted February 27, 2016 Gotta love that big torch on the euro by day 9/10. I always get excited about possible warmth as we head into met spring. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016022700/ecmwf_T850_us_11.png Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.