12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[winterfreak]

GEM, GFS, and UKIE are SE. EURO is not. We'll see who wins but I hope we can all score something out of this as it would be a shame if some didn't.

[Iowa2015]

Few of the modals look Great for me in S.E iowa along the river not buying into it as much as it's shifted around.

[centralweather44]

When is the euro out?

[bainbridgekid]

When is the euro out?

Starts running at 12:30 and is out fully just before 1:00.

[Grizzcoat]

If you have Weatherbell-- you can get precip maps that start to run at 12pm/am  (CST)-- usually through a storm most are concerned about (within 3 days) by 12:30. Instantweathermaps also has the Euro,, but no precip maps,, just pressure and 850 temps,, but a lot can be used from that.

[Tom]

The energy from this storm system is just beginning to enter the PAC NW where it will begin to get better sampling.  The next 24 hours may tell the story if the southerly trend is in fact the storm track.

[Tony]

_{Now I could be wrong on this but from what I can recall from last winter is that the EURO did not perform very well and for the most part was the "last to the party" on several occasions. I know the GFS has not performed very well since the upgrade and I personally think the Canadian has performed it's best when it's about 3 days within a storm.}

 

_{This is just my take on it and feel free to correct me.(which I know some will)}

[Geos]

I agree, but its hard to discount the Euro.  We'll see what the 12z run shows.  We are getting into that period where the mid range GFS can play games.

 

What is the forecasted AO and NAO on the EURO for early next week?

[Geos]

_{Now I could be wrong on this but from what I can recall from last winter is that the EURO did not perform very well and for the most part was the "last to the party" on several occasions. I know the GFS has not performed very well since the upgrade and I personally think the Canadian has performed it's best when it's about 3 days within a storm.}

 

_{This is just my take on it and feel free to correct me.(which I know some will)}

 

It was late to the model agreement party last winter. And if you remember it was the last model to catch on to the big snow total for last month's snowstorm. CMC does do pretty good within 72 hours... the NAM actually did pretty well with the November snowstorm also, especially when it came to those big amounts.

[Tom]

What is the forecasted AO and NAO on the EURO for early next week?

+AO, neutral NAO, -EPO and neutral PNA....

[SnowO]

Snow coming down at a good clip in West Omaha right now

[Geos]

Cold air is deep on the GFS.

ORD sounding

 

 

[Grizzcoat]

Snow coming down at a good clip in West Omaha right now

Definitely seeing the bright banding on the radar. Wish it was 3-5F cooler and ground temps froze-- but hey-- its a start.

[Tom]

Woah, 12z Euro bring down heavy snow farther south into NE for the first wave...interesting...I guess the models are now honing in on a much stronger HP...

[bainbridgekid]

Cold air is deep on the GFS.

ORD sounding

 

GFS and Canadian both show 3-6" of wet snow for Chicago.

 

Pretty cool how quickly this has gotten interesting for us. Plenty of time for it to get a whole lot less interesting though. 

[Tom]

12z Euro digging SE it seems like...might be a good hit for KC area...it has SLP down near Galveston, TX at 96HR...

[Money]

Much colder temps compared to yesterday's 12z at hr 120

[jcwxguy]

.

[jcwxguy]

126. Euro is southeast

[Tom]

12z Euro caving in towards the GFS/GGEM but stronger and has more precip associated with it...

[Money]

1001 L in N IL at he 144 but 850 mb temps are pretty much all below zero around the low

[jcwxguy]

Still stuff in se Nebraska

[jcwxguy]

Hmm

[bud2380]

Euro definitely shifted east but not as much as gfs and ggem.

[Tom]

That is a pretty big shift SE on the Euro from just 24 hours ago...still 5-6 days away...

[Tom]

Eastern 1/2 of NE still does pretty well in a sizable defo band...

[jcwxguy]

.

[bud2380]

[CentralNebWeather]

That snow map doesn't make sense. If there is so much cold air shouldn't kc and eastern Nebraska be buried? When will this storm hit the coast for better sampling?

[Tom]

This may turn out to be a much better "share the wealth" system as earlier thought...

[winterfreak]

A step in the right direction on the EURO.

[CentralNebWeather]

Dodge city Kansas 30 inches to 3 inches in 24 hours. Let's see how this changes. Tom is right it is still 5-6 days out

[jcwxguy]

Both systems

[Tom]

That snow map doesn't make sense. If there is so much cold air shouldn't kc and eastern Nebraska be buried? When will this storm hit the coast for better sampling?

Your snows come when the storm begins to track NNE out of deep TX when precip explodes over the Plains.

 

ULL feature sits and spins for a couple days and has wrap around snows in NE/IA/SD/MN...this same system which is a part of the 30-day cycle did the same thing end of November.

[Tom]

That snow map doesn't make sense. If there is so much cold air shouldn't kc and eastern Nebraska be buried? When will this storm hit the coast for better sampling?

It's beginning to get better sampling now as it enters the PAC NW.  Next 24 hours will see more shifts IMO.

[Tom]

12z Euro full run....

[Geos]

There must be some ice and sleet to the south of snow. Otherwise I would expect more snow from southern Iowa into Illinois.

[Tom]

This storm would be a nice way to finish off a torchy December and a reminder that it can snow in the month of December.  

[CentralNebWeather]

That must be the case geos.

[Geos]

This may turn out to be a much better "share the wealth" system as earlier thought...

 

Wouldn't it be something if every member in the region gets snow from either wave 1 or wave 2!