12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[CentralNebWeather]

Thanks gosaints that would explain the disparity

[jcwxguy]

zoomed in 

[Snowshoe]

Love the 12 over my house.

[Geos]

This does not look right..especially around Northern IL.

 

That's weird looking. I would expect the high trend more west to east due to that high to the north.

[Money]

FYI 18z gfs for chicago has about 1.0 qpf sleet 0.4 qpf fzr and about. 0.06 qpf snow

[Geos]

Looks like the EURO wants to occlude the low. Sub zero temperatures all around the low at 850mb.

 

Still a lot of time to go.

 

[Geos]

GEFS has the 0° line further east than the operational. Tell me there is disagreements in track still.

Looks like the strength of the low is in question also.

 

 

[Money]

GFS ensembles look all over the place. Some way SE some similar to OP GFS one NW of the 18z op gfs

 

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRSNE_18z/f132.gif

[Money]

18z GFS also shows about 0.54 QPF of FZR in Milwaukee with temps around 29.

 

151228/2100Z 123  09019KT  31.7F  SNOW    9:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0

151229/0000Z 126  08023KT  29.4F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.54|| 0.510    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.54|| 0.52    0|  0|100

151229/0300Z 129  08025KT  32.4F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.289    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.54|| 0.81    0|  0|100

151229/0600Z 132  09021KT  35.0F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.096    9:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.54|| 0.91    0|  0|100

[Money]

Chicago:

 

151228/2100Z 123  08028KT  30.1F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.393    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 0.39    0|  0|100

151229/0000Z 126  05022KT  33.3F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.985    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 1.38    0|  0|100

151229/0300Z 129  08032KT  35.3F    DZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.150    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 1.53    0|  0|100

151229/0600Z 132  14013KT  37.8F  RAIN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.153    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.41|| 1.68    0|  0|100

 

Madison:

 

151228/2100Z 123  08021KT  30.3F          0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.000    0:1|  0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.00    0|  0|  0

151229/0000Z 126  07025KT  28.1F  SNPL    1:1| 0.2|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.170    1:1|  0.2|| 0.25|| 0.00|| 0.17   28| 72|  0

151229/0300Z 129  07028KT  31.2F  FZRA    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.11|| 0.102    1:1|  0.2|| 0.25|| 0.11|| 0.27    0|  0|100

151229/0600Z 132  05009KT  33.5F  RASN    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.137    1:1|  0.2|| 0.25|| 0.11|| 0.41   48|  0| 52

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

151229/0900Z 135  01018KT  31.5F  FZDZ    0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.19|| 0.179    1:1|  0.2|| 0.25|| 0.29|| 0.59    0|  0|100

[Geos]

I'd like to know how the model came up with this much snow!

 

[Money]

I'd like to know how the model came up with this much snow!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122318/gfs_asnow_ncus_23.png

For whatever reason it included sleet and ice in it

[chances14]

i would really advise against using tropical tidbits snow maps for these kind of storms with marginal temps. they count all frozen precipitation as snow

 

use instantweathermaps or pivotalweather for the snow maps

[SnowO]

Jim Flowers said to throw out the GFS abt 15 min ago. He says eastern NE is going to get clocked! Hope he's right

[Geos]

Jim Flowers said to throw out the GFS abt 15 min ago. He says eastern NE is going to get clocked! Hope he's right

 

So he's liking the EURO then...

[bainbridgekid]

For whatever reason it included sleet and ice in it

Tropical Tidbits snowfall maps always count all frozen precip, so they are pretty suspect in situations like this.

[SnowO]

Check out Jims Facebook page. He explains why the GFS is out of whack. He just posted a video 30 min ago

[CentralNebWeather]

That is great information about tropical tidbits. I didn't know that.

[CentralNebWeather]

Boy Jim flowers is confident in the euro model on his Facebook video in the last 1/2 hour. He thinks the low will be in northeast Kansas Monday night. If that is the ultimate location, who's to know this far out, that is the perfect heavy snow path for central Kansas and central and eastern Nebraska. Whether you agree or disagree it is some interesting meteorology. I don't always agree with him just checking all sources of information

[Money]

Boy Jim flowers is confident in the euro model on his Facebook video in the last 1/2 hour. He thinks the low will be in northeast Kansas Monday night. If that is the ultimate location, who's to know this far out, that is the perfect heavy snow path for central Kansas and central and eastern Nebraska. Whether you agree or disagree it is some interesting meteorology. I don't always agree with him just checking all sources of information

 

Eastern NE I can see, I think you may be too far west but we'll see.

[GDR]

Man there will be some ticked off Eastern Nebraskans if Jim flowers is wrong. He's definitely sticking to the euro.

[Tom]

00z NAM looks like it wants to lay down the snow with the first wave a bit south in NE...

[CentralNebWeather]

The 00Z NAM just finished.  I compared it to the 18Z GFS through 12-27 12Z.  The NAM has alot less snow and the snow further south in the Nebraska.  Will be interesting if that would push the main storm further south or the less snow would have not as much impact as it comes north north east.  This is where the expertise of many on this forum will be interesting to see.

 

00Z NAM

 

 

 

18Z GFS

 

[CentralNebWeather]

Boy Tom you read my mind.  I just posted after you put the NAM on.  Spooky, ha.  

[Tom]

System is getting better sampling for tonight's 00z suite of runs.  I saw some of the 12z EPS members shift the first wave south more so than previous runs.  Many GEFS members were also east of operational.  Get ready to see some more shifts over the next 24-48 hours.  Energy over the 4 corners/Rockies isn't handled very well by the models.  Some like to speed the energy up and others slow them down.  Once the main energy from both waves is fully sampled over the Rockies we'll see consensus.

[Geos]

Check out Jims Facebook page. He explains why the GFS is out of whack. He just posted a video 30 min ago

 

I can't see the low tracking a track into central Iowa, like he's saying though. Sure you might get clocked, but I think this storm is going to try to run towards the warmer air and away from the high to the north.

 

It will be a weaker system if it cuts up into a high like that and will occlude.

[GDR]

[Tom]

18z DGEX has a monster!

Another model with the shift SE...haha...too bad its as bad as the NAM in the long range...

 

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/eta.totsnow192.gif

[GDR]

[winterfreak]

The DGEX hahaha hello my old friend.

[Geos]

The DGEX hahaha hello my old friend.

 

Lol, what would you do with 18-21"!?

 

GFS out to 90 hours.

 

 

[bud2380]

Love the DGEX!!   GFS took another shift southeast so far. 

[bainbridgekid]

May not really matter, but the legitimately cold air makes a little bit better progress South ahead of the system through hour 96 on the 00z.

 

Northern Wisconsin is very cold at hour 96 while the arctic air stayed mainly North of the border on the 18z.

 

EDIT: The low is weaker and further SE through hour 114.

[Geos]

May not really matter, but the legitimately cold air makes a little bit better progress South ahead of the system through hour 96.

 

Northern Wisconsin is very cold at hour 96 while the arctic air stayed mainly North of the border on the 18z.

 

I see that... a good 6-8° lower in northeast IL. High is further south at 102 hours. More below zero readings in MN, SD.

 

[Money]

Way weaker and SE

[Tom]

I see that... a good 6-8° lower in northeast IL. High is further south at 102 hours. More below zero readings in MN, SD.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2015122400/gfs_T2m_eus_18.png

That wind flow would promote Lehs in SE WI/NE IL for a period...

[CentralNebWeather]

Well that run was terrible for many on here. Very weak. Any ideas why?

[Geos]

Low is digging farther SE.

 

[winterfreak]

Not a good run yikes. Waaay weaker.

[bud2380]

Not much to look at that run.  Maybe some ice on the NW side with a bit of snow mixed in.  Looks like a couple sloppy inches possible in SE Iowa into Northern Illinois and far SE Wisconsin.  Yuck!