12/26 - 12/29 Potential Wintry & Wet Winter Storm

[Grizzcoat]

DSM 00z Euro---

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -5.6    -4.3    1030      60       2    0.00     566     543   
MON 12Z 28-DEC  -3.1    -1.8    1020      67      96    0.05     562     546   
MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.7    -6.0    1010      88      94    0.49     557     549   
TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -1.2    -6.1    1001      93      97    0.52     544     543   
TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -1.9    -4.5    1002      92      85    0.15     547     545   
TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -4.1    -7.5    1010      90      92    0.02     550     542

[Geos]

NAM is with the UK Met pretty much. You could say 3 camps now.

 

[Money]

DSM 00z Euro---

MON 06Z 28-DEC  -5.6    -4.3    1030      60       2    0.00     566     543   

MON 12Z 28-DEC  -3.1    -1.8    1020      67      96    0.05     562     546   

MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.7    -6.0    1010      88      94    0.49     557     549   

TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -1.2    -6.1    1001      93      97    0.52     544     543   

TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -1.9    -4.5    1002      92      85    0.15     547     545   

TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -4.1    -7.5    1010      90      92    0.02     550     542

 

How about kosh?

[Geos]

I wasn't here for the November storm, but I heard it shifted SE as it got closer. Did it shift significantly within 48 hours?

 

Flipped through the history more on that storm. NAM was way north at one point, then it over corrected and went too far south about 48 hours out, then came back on the 19th. EURO was actually too far north for awhile showing Milwaukee area as the bulls eye. It finally got it right 24 hours out, early on the 19th, but the highest snowfall it had was 10"; 20" was the actual max. GEM, GFS, and especially the RGEM nailed it really good 48 hours out. So in my experience the NAM and EURO have made the most dramatic corrections within 48 hours of a storm.

[Grizzcoat]

OSH-  00z Euro

MON 18Z 28-DEC  -1.6    -2.9    1026      65      58    0.00     564     543   
TUE 00Z 29-DEC  -2.2    -1.0    1015      88     100    0.36     558     546   
TUE 06Z 29-DEC  -0.5    -2.9    1004      92      94    0.40     543     540   
TUE 12Z 29-DEC  -0.3     0.2    1003      96      92    0.08     540     537   
TUE 18Z 29-DEC   0.3    -2.9    1008      95      65    0.01     551     545   
WED 00Z 30-DEC  -0.6    -4.3    1014      92      32    0.02     554     543   
WED 06Z 30-DEC  -1.4    -5.6    1016      90      21    0.01     554     541  

[Geos]

It's not every winter you see a long train of moisture like this.

It extends all the way to Maine.

 

[winterfreak]

Winds are howling here. Coming out of the NNW.

[bainbridgekid]

It's not every winter you see a long train of moisture like this.

It extends all the way to Maine.

 

If there were a colder area of high pressure to the North, that would be a 2,000 mile long snowstorm.

 

6z NAM coming out now. Going to bed after that.

[ToastedRavs]

What are everyone's thoughts about what the forecast offices do at the morning AFD.  Will they issue warnings?  I can see some holding off until after the 12z runs are in and do like a 10am or 12pm update with warnings.  I think this pertains mainly to the NE/IA/MN/WI/IL offices.  The KS and MO offices will have to issue warnings with the morning AFD.

[winterfreak]

Curious to see what our office does in the morning.

[ToastedRavs]

Curious to see what our office does in the morning.

 

 

I have a feeling that Pleasant Hill is going to have some adjustments to be made during Sunday evening and overnight as far as which counties are in and out of warning/advisory.  That's a tough CWA to cover there!  Topeka will have it a bit easier!

[ToastedRavs]

Through 30 hours, the craptastic NAM has warm air as far west as the Wichita area NE to Nebraska City to Praire Du Chien, WI.  Ahh...the outlying NAM.  Way too much warm air in mid levels.  At 33 hours, it has 50 degree max temp in the column as far north as Central Iowa.  WTH!?

[Geos]

NAM does a loop over the Red River Valley, lol.

 

Noticed the NMM is going to keep the this area firmly in the frozen.

 

[Money]

NAM does a loop over the Red River Valley, lol.

 

Noticed the NMM is going to keep the this area firmly in the frozen.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-nmm/2015122700/wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_ncus_48.png

Yeah doesn't make a lot of sense

 

It actually got the low down to 993 and then just weakens it substantially while other models keep it strengthening

[Geos]

RGEM was really nasty looking...

 

 

 

[Geos]

Yeah doesn't make a lot of sense

 

It actually got the low down to 993 and then just weakens it substantially while other models keep it strengthening

 

Got a feeling the NAM will straighten out it's path later today.

 

36

 

[Money]

WRF-ARW at HR 48:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/wrf-arw/2015122612/wrf-arw_ref_frzn_us_48.png

[Geos]

WRF-ARW at HR 48:

 

 

Too bad the 0z didn't load yet...

Seeing deeper cold air out ahead of the low.

[OKwx2k4]

Up to 5.3 inches of rain down here on the OK/AR state line. No sign of slowing down. This sucks. Wettest year in Oklahoma history goes in the books January 1 for sure now. Meanwhile, wildfires in Ventura California today. Lol. Typical El Niño huh? Lol

[Money]

RGEM gets the low down to 990 and heads due north instead of west like the NAM. That's going to be the key and something that should hopefully be solved by tomorrow night. 

[Madtown]

Gfs wins this one....low is headed over chi town. Euro sucked in nov. Had heaviest band north of me....ended up 60mi south.

[OKwx2k4]

Gfs wins this one....low is headed over chi town. Euro sucked in nov. Had heaviest band north of me....ended up 60mi south.

Euro has been the outlier from the early parts of tracking this storm. No surprise that it still is. GFS scores the coup.

[Money]

Never count out the euro. It's statistically been the best model

[Madtown]

[Money]

[OKwx2k4]

[OKwx2k4]

I know, obviously, that the Euro is the best in the business but it's skill scores crash too. It's struggling pretty hard right now.

[ToastedRavs]

WPC maps are out.  Heaviest snow axis is from Omaha Northeast into NW Iowa up towards Rochester MN.  Freezing rain of a quarter inch from Osceola, IA ENE towards the western burbs of Chi town.  Even a 30% chance of 1/2" of freezing rain from Iowa city to Quad cities.  That's no bueno!  That's on the 12z to 12z timeframe Mon into Tues

[ToastedRavs]

Nice discussion by La Crosse for those interested. They cite the NAM and its warmth above but side with cooler GFS

[Money]

6z RGEM takes the low just north of Chicago similar to 6z GFS

[bud2380]

Dvn and wpc both going with the euro. Dvn even tried to claim the gfs moved towards the euro. What models are they looking at??

[bud2380]

[bud2380]

Hi res Canadian above

[Madtown]

Give me that canadian!

[Money]

12z nam has the low in W ARK at hr 20

[Madtown]

Where is everybody!

[Money]

12z nam is caving way east so far through 24 compared to 6z

[Money]

998.2 L just SW of STL at HR 32. Looks like it will pass through STL or maybe a tad north. 

[Money]

Near the mo/il/ia boarder at 36

[Money]

NAM crushes eastern NEB with 14-18