El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[Deweydog]

I think there's a 50% chance you'll all be wrong.

[Anti Marine Layer]

I said before I think there's a 50% chance OLM is below normal JAS.

 

Maybe we should change the title of this thread?

 

Yes, we should change the title, as my old wicked English teacher Mrs. Muñoz would say. The correct name of the baby boy that cheated Southern California this past winter is El Niño. You need the tilde. 

 

The sister, La Niña, looks to arrive soon.

[westiztehbest]

Funny how when the CFS is warm I go..."overdone".  When it's cold I root for it.  Guess I'm biased.  But we'll see how it resolves over the coming 5-6 months.

 

[Jesse]

Those maps don't look really cold for our area...unless I'm reading them wrong. Close to average, with warmer than average readings over much of Canada.

 

Nina sure looks to get going though.

[ShawniganLake]

If this trend continues, we may see a substantial drop in the PDO this month. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[westiztehbest]

Those maps don't look really cold for our area...unless I'm reading them wrong. Close to average, with warmer than average readings over much of Canada.

 

Nina sure looks to get going though.

I forgot to mention that I was referring to the Arctic.  I'd say that bodes better for us than the opposite. 

[Jesse]

I forgot to mention that I was referring to the Arctic. I'd say that bodes better for us than the opposite.

Ah, I see. I would definitely agree.

[TT-SEA]

If this trend continues, we may see a substantial drop in the PDO this month. 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

 

 

Probably not... those changes look bigger than really seem to be when you look at the SSTA map.

 

Anyways... significant warming in the Nino 1 region.  

[ShawniganLake]

Probably not... those changes look bigger than really seem to be when you look at the SSTA map.

 

Anyways... significant warming in the Nino 1 region.  

Probably not, those changes look bigger than really seem to be. 

[Jesse]

Probably not, those changes look bigger than really seem to be. 

 

That only applies to changes you don't want to see. 

[TT-SEA]

Probably not, those changes look bigger than really seem to be.

 

It was with a wink and a smile. But not what you would expect there with a Nina developing at a rapid pace.

[Phil]

Probably not... those changes look bigger than really seem to be when you look at the SSTA map.

 

Anyways... significant warming in the Nino 1 region.

That warming is a product of a CCKW passage. It'll be gone quickly.

[Phil]

It was with a wink and a smile. But not what you would expect there with a Nina developing at a rapid pace.

Wrong.

 

There's nothing unusual about rapid fluctuations in the EPAC during the developmental stages of a La Niña. Every ripple in the thermocline will manifest there during the transitory phase.

[Phil]

Holy smokes at the IO! Widespread 90F+ SSTs on the latest update, with anomalous warmth all the way through/above 850mb. This is a ticking time bomb.

 

Once convection/forcing gets going here in 10-15 days..my goodness. It's just going to dominate the global weather pattern. Will really get the La Niña/-AAM going,

 

 

[Jesse]

Will that help the Niña along?

[Phil]

Not surprising to see +IO years dominating the CPC analogs going forward.

[TT-SEA]

Wrong.

There's nothing unusual about rapid fluctuations in the EPAC during the developmental stages of a La Niña. Every ripple in the thermocline will manifest there during the transitory phase.

No kidding. But you sure jumped on it when the change showed blue. Red is to be ignored.

[Phil]

Will that help the Niña along?

Yes, because strong IO convection will lead to subsidence/stronger trades over of most of the Pacific, especially if it can propagate into the eastern IO/MT domains.

[Phil]

No kidding. But you sure jumped on it when the change showed blue. Red is to be ignored.

Uh, there is just as much cooling on that map as there is warming, even now. If there actually was a large scale warming ongoing, I'd mention it.

 

Downwelling/warming ongoing over Niño1/2, upwelling/cooling everywhere else. Typical transitory ENSO behavior.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Phil]

Forcing transition abrupt on the latest CFS. Time will tell if this is a higher frequency/propagatory wave or a true flip in the low frequency/background state.

 

[TT-SEA]

Uh, there is just as much cooling on that map as there is warming, even now. If there actually was a large scale warming ongoing, I'd mention it.

Downwelling/warming ongoing over Niño1/2, upwelling/cooling everywhere else. Typical transitory ENSO behavior.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

I see lots of blues and reds across the map. With the darkest red over Nino 1. Worth mentioning.

[Phil]

I see lots of blues and reds across the map. With the darkest red over Nino 1. Worth mentioning.

Why is that worth mentioning? Just a thermocline ripple with no long term significance.

[Jesse]

Why is that worth mentioning? Just a thermocline ripple with no long term significance.

 

Tim is secretly the red power ranger.

[TT-SEA]

Why is that worth mentioning? Just a thermocline ripple with no long term significance.

 

 

Then why is any of it worth mentioning?   Its the darkest red on the map.    Dark blue is the only thing we can notice?

[Deweydog]

We're gonna have to keep an eye on this.

[Jesse]

We're gonna have to keep an eye on this.

 

Tracking ENSO on an ENSO thread is so stupid.

[Phil]

Then why is any of it worth mentioning? Its the darkest red on the map. Dark blue is the only thing we can notice?

The manifestation of negative SSTAs in the Equatorial Pacific is a reflection of a complete thermocline retraction, or the end of the Niño and a subsurface priming for La Niña. It's a big deal.

 

Localized thermocline ripples associated with localized wind stress that last 10-15 days aren't a huge deal.

[TT-SEA]

Still hoping for cold neutral or a weak Nina. I am sure Phil will say that is the most unlikely thing to happen in the history of ENSO and it's so far removed from reality that I am just trolling.

[Phil]

Still hoping for cold neutral. I am sure Phil will say that is the most unlikely thing to happen in the history of ENSO and it's so far removed from reality that I am just trolling.

I'm still thinking moderate La Niña between -1.1C and -1.3C in terms of monthly ONI.

[Deweydog]

Tracking ENSO on an ENSO thread is so stupid.

Tracking?

[Jesse]

Tracking?

Following its development, debating analogs, making predictions, posting maps, etc. You know, all the stuff us plebs do while you sit in the shadows feeling superior.

[Deweydog]

Following its development, debating analogs, making predictions, posting maps, etc. You know, all the stuff us plebs do while you sit in the shadows feeling superior.

Seems a little excessive for 5-1. Just an opinion, no need to go off all forum cop/butt hurt about it.

[Jesse]

Seems a little excessive for 5-1. Just an opinion, no need to go off all forum cop/butt hurt about it.

Don't know if you've checked lately, but this place's very existence is a little excessive, speaking on the grand scale of human existence. Just the blink of an eye ago geologically we were hunting wolly mammoths and fighting for shelter. Now we are arguing via tiny hand held computers about whether someone with 5,000+ posts versus 7,000+ posts is being too liberal in where they draw the line for reasonable discussion of natural weather phenomena, that is completely out of our control no matter how you slice it, all on a virtual forum that doesn't even exist in physical space.

 

My point is, it's all relative.

[TT-SEA]

Don't know if you've checked lately, but this place's very existence is a little excessive, speaking on the grand scale of human existence. Just the blink of an eye ago geologically we were hunting wolly mammoths and fighting for shelter. Now we are arguing via tiny hand held computers about whether someone with 5,000+ posts versus 7,000+ posts is being too liberal in where they draw the line for reasonable discussion of natural weather phenomena, that is completely out of our control no matter how you slice it, all on a virtual forum that doesn't even exist in physical space.

 

My point is, it's all relative.

 

 

True dat.

[Deweydog]

Don't know if you've checked lately, but this place's very existence is a little excessive, speaking on the grand scale of human existence. Just the blink of an eye ago geologically we were hunting wolly mammoths and fighting for shelter. Now we are arguing via tiny hand held computers about whether someone with 5,000+ posts versus 7,000+ posts is being too liberal in where they draw the line for reasonable discussion of natural weather phenomena, that is completely out of our control no matter how you slice it, all on a virtual forum that doesn't even exist in physical space.

 

My point is, it's all relative.

OK.

[Phil]

Newest NMME input aggregate flips the PDO by August:

 

[Jesse]

Newest NMME input aggregate flips the PDO by August:

 

image.jpeg

That's a sight for sore eyes.

[westiztehbest]

Newest NMME input aggregate flips the PDO by August:

 

image.jpeg

heh beat me to it!  

[TT-SEA]

Newest NMME input aggregate flips the PDO by August:

 

image.jpeg

 

 

Went the opposite way in the summer of 1983...

 

1983 -  0.56 1.14 2.11 1.87 1.80 2.36 3.51 1.85 0.91 0.96 1.02 1.69

 

 

And stayed strongly positive the entire year.

[Anti Marine Layer]

Went the opposite way in the summer of 1983...

 

1983 -  0.56 1.14 2.11 1.87 1.80 2.36 3.51 1.85 0.91 0.96 1.02 1.69

 

 

And stayed strongly positive the entire year.

Which explains why summer of 1983 was very hot here without the typical cool sea breeze.