El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[Phil]

Rapid ENSO SSTA cooling since April 4th. Cooling in the EPAC looks nothing like the 1998/1983 progressions, though 1983 is closer, and 1988 is the closest.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.4.2016.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.11.2016.gif

[Phil]

Here's 1998 by comparison. Really starting to look like a bad analog at this point, at least in terms of progression.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/1998/anomnight.4.11.1998.gif

[Phil]

Here's April 1988. Obviously farther along at this point, but orientation better in Equatorial Pacific.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/April.88.anomaly.gif

[snow_wizard]

Scripps is going ape on a super la nina.  I'm doubtful, though.  I'd say we get a third or half the reading it's outputting. 

 

 

 

 

Hard to say what a Nina of that caliber would bring.  That would be exceptionally strong.

[TT-SEA]

Hard to say what a Nina of that caliber would bring.  That would be exceptionally strong.

 

 

It would probably bring tons of rain and mountain snow with very little blocking.    That is my guess.   I am sure you find an example to prove otherwise to get you through the summer.  

[BLI snowman]

It would probably bring tons of rain and mountain snow with very little blocking.    That is my guess.   I am sure you find an example to prove otherwise to get you through the summer.  

The mega strong Ninas through the years have had some good blocking events for us. 1988-89, 1973-74, 1955-56, 1892-93, and 1889-90. Of course 1974 was the most disappointing but it still had a 12 day cold stretch in early January that tops anything we've seen recently.

[snow_wizard]

The mega strong Ninas through the years have had some good blocking events for us. 1988-89, 1973-74, 1955-56, 1892-93, and 1889-90. Of course 1974 was the most disappointing but it still had a 12 day cold stretch in early January that tops anything we've seen recently.

 

I think 1942-43 might count also.  Lots of blocking that winter.  That winter was actually quite a bit more than just the January cold / snow event.  Clearbrook had over 100 minimums of 32 or below that winter.  Indicative of lots of blocking.  It also had a cold and snow event in December.  1889-90 is actually a very interesting analog right now.

[TT-SEA]

I think 1942-43 might count also.  Lots of blocking that winter.  That winter was actually quite a bit more than just the January cold / snow event.  Clearbrook had over 100 minimums of 32 or below that winter.  Indicative of lots of blocking.  It also had a cold and snow event in December.  1889-90 is actually a very interesting analog right now.

 

I have been saying that and being mocked for picking something older than 30 years ago!    

 

But strong Nino to strong Nina transition in a low solar period at the very end of a solar cycle.    Not many analogs matching those basic criteria even.

 

And of course the results.    The most spectacular spring, summer, and fall in 1889.   It started in early April and went into October.    Portland had 6 temps in the 80s in the last half of September of 1889 alone.  

 

January of 1890 was cold and very snowy... 35.3 inches of snow at Portland spread out over numerous events.

 

And ironically... the spring of 1890 was also incredibly nice during a strong Nina.    Summer and fall of 1890 was warm and dry.  Portland had almost no rain in September of 1890 with almost every day in the 70s to low 80s.  

 

Just an incredible 2-year stretch taking us through a strong Nino to strong Nina transition.   Maybe very low solar was a factor.    

[Phil]

Timber!

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

[snow_wizard]

Timber!

 

 

That's a nice crash for sure.

[Phil]

That's a nice crash for sure.

Large swath of cold subsurface anomalies associated upwelling flank of oceanic KW have reached 15m. Won't be long until Niño3/Niño3.4 plunge, as Niño 1.2 already has.

 

Still going down today:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

[Jesse]

Large swath of cold subsurface anomalies associated upwelling flank of oceanic KW have reached 15m. Won't be long until Niño3/Niño3.4 plunge, as Niño 1.2 already has.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino12.png

 

Is this faster drop increasing our chances of an average to coolish summer?

[Phil]

The importance of the ongoing cooling throughout the EPAC cannot be overstated, in my opinion. If this continues and solidifies, we can narrow our summer analog pool substantially, as low frequency forcing will solidify in the IO/MT domain without a warm EPAC. This will assist in strengthening the La Niña faster, affect the boreal summer circulations/summer pattern, tank the PDO, and increase the prospects for an active Atlantic hurricane season.

 

Feedbacks are a beautiful thing.

[Phil]

Is this faster drop increasing our chances of an average to coolish summer?

Definitely. I'm kinda worried that my summer forecast is too warm, actually.

 

I still anticipate more periods of warmth/ridging during the A/M/J trimonthly and I wouldn't be surprised if there's a warm period or two during the early stages of the J/A/S trimonthly, though that period should finish below average overall. Plus, I think a cooler than average autumn is a near-lock for you guys.

 

The reason some Niño-to-Niña summers break the rules and run warm/dry is (usually) because the ENSO transitions are unstable, and antecedent warm waters and/or low frequency forcing can remain in the EPAC or WPAC for awhile. You want the forcing in the IO/MT for a cooler than average summer, which is looking more likely to occur with every passing week.

 

That said, the latest developments are coming at my expense, as this would basically ensure a prolific blowtorch here starting in July, probably lasting through the autumn. So, remember that when considering any potential biases I might have here.

[Jesse]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Phil. With all of the April warmth we are seeing, it is almost starting to feel like a year where we are going to get some warm season "payback".

[Phil]

Thanks for sharing your thoughts, Phil. With all of the April warmth we are seeing, it is almost starting to feel like a year where we are going to get some warm season "payback".

No problem. Yeah, this could be a very demonstrative year, scientifically speaking. Watching the NPAC SSTs respond to the changes in background circulation will be both informative and fun to watch unfold.

[Phil]

Yeah, this is progressing rapidly now. Unless intraseasonal forcing becomes counterproductive, we're looking at La Niña conditions by June.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/anim/wkxzteq_anm.gif

[westiztehbest]

Will be interesting to see how quickly 3.4 SSTs drop to 0:  before or after June.  If it's before...odds appear higher for a stronger Nina.  If it's after...a weak/mod event appears more likely.

 

 

[Phil]

Huge changes over the last two weeks:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.4.2016.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.18.2016.gif

[Front Ranger]

Think this thing will be east or west-based? My apologies if you've already said.

[Phil]

Think this thing will be east or west-based? My apologies if you've already said.

No worries man.

 

Unlike 1998/1983, this one should start out east-based with rapid cooling in Niño1.2/Niño3 during June/July, then quickly become center-based through the remainder of the summer.

 

It probably won't be west-based like 2010-11 et al. Though, the warmer the Indian Ocean/Maritime SSTAs get relative to the Pacific, the stronger the Niña will be, and the faster the NPAC/PDO flip will be.

[Front Ranger]

No worries man.

 

Unlike 1998/1983, this one should start out east-based with rapid cooling in Niño1.2/Niño3 during June/July, then quickly become center-based through the remainder of the summer.

 

It probably won't be west-based like 2010-11 et al. Though, the warmer the Indian Ocean/Maritime SSTAs get relative to the Pacific, the stronger the Niña will be, and the faster the NPAC/PDO flip will be.

 

Cool. ENSO events almost always start out east-based, I guess I meant more for winter.

 

What was 2007-08 and 1988-89?

[TT-SEA]

Cool. ENSO events almost always start out east-based, I guess I meant more for winter.

 

What was 2007-08 and 1988-89?

 

 

Looks like 2007-08 was west-based.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2008/anomnight.1.3.2008.gif

 

Same with 1988-89:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/January.89.anomaly.gif

[Phil]

Cool. ENSO events almost always start out east-based, I guess I meant more for winter.

 

What was 2007-08 and 1988-89?

La Niñas often start out central-based, actually. This is particularly true following stronger El Niños, due to the slope of the thermocline during the passage of the initial upwelling oceanic KWs.

 

The 2007-08 La Niña was west-based at its peak around New Years, while the 1988-89 La Niña was east-based at its peak during October/November (which was relatively early, which isn't surprising given the early-demise of the preceding Niño).

 

Analog-wise, the basis of an ENSO event actually isn't that important unless it's extremely notable/dominating in the global anomaly fields. Factors like the IO/MT-PAC longitudinal thermal gradient, QBO/solar, and BDC/poleward O^3 transport hold much more in the way of physical and statistical significance.

[Phil]

Looks like 2007-08 was west-based.

 

Same with 1988-89:

 

Actually, 1988-89 was east-based at maturity.

 

Basically all La Niñas go west-based upon degradation, as the WPAC waters are warmer (in absolute terms) and will better reflect the eastward propagation of the cooler SSTs from the east, while downwelling KWs (warming) will reflect the strongest in the EPAC for similar reasons upon the degradation of an event.

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/September.88.anomaly.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/October.88.anomaly.gif

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/mean_anom/November.88.anomaly.gif

[TT-SEA]

Actually, 1988-89 was east-based at maturity.

 

Basically all La Niñas go west-based upon degradation, as the WPAC waters are warmer (in absolute terms) and will better reflect the eastward propagation of the cooler SSTs from the east, while downwelling KWs (warming) will reflect the strongest in the EPAC for similar reasons upon the degradation of an event.

 

 

 

 

 

Good information... thanks.

[Phil]

Latest depiction of 7-day SSTA changes reveals expanding ENSO cooling. Effects of the heatwave on offshore SSTAs also evident.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_global_1.png

[Phil]

Looks like Niño3 is taking the plunge now. Expect Niño3.4 to join the party within 10-15 days.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino3.png

[Phil]

Today vs 2015 at this time:

 

Today:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.18.2016.gif

 

2015:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.4.20.2015.gif

[ShawniganLake]

Today vs 2015 at this time:

 

Today:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.18.2016.gif

 

2015:

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2015/anomnight.4.20.2015.gif

The blob is really hurtin'.

[TT-SEA]

The blob is really hurtin'.

 

 

Still a strong +PDO signature.

[Phil]

Still a strong +PDO signature.

Probably not for long.

[TT-SEA]

Probably not for long.

 

For sure... PDO will likely be -8.5 by the of May.    North Pacific might actually freeze over.   

 

Going to cause some interesting marine pushes in July... maybe with freezing fog for days.  

[Phil]

For sure... PDO will likely be -8.5 by the of May. North Pacific might actually freeze over.

 

Going to cause some interesting marine pushes in July... maybe with freezing fog for days.

The NPAC is typically warmer in a -PDO vs a +PDO.

[TT-SEA]

Well, the NPAC is typically warmer in a -PDO vs a +PDO, so..

 

 

OK... the NE Pacific will likely freeze over.   They will be ice skating in Westport by the 4th  of July.  

[Phil]

OK... the NE Pacific will likely freeze over. They will be ice skating in Westport by the 4th of July.

No La Niña stronger than -1.1C in Niño3.4 (at any point in time) has featured a +PDO simultaneously since records began.

 

The PDO is going negative. Probably will do so in S/O/N but will begin dropping this summer as Niña forcing/circulations take over.

[TT-SEA]

No La Niña stronger than -1.1C in Niño3.4 (at any point in time) has featured a +PDO simultaneously since reliable records began.

 

It's going negative, okay?

 

 

Probably by the beginning of fall.  

[Phil]

Probably by the beginning of fall.

I could see it happening anytime between August and November, but favor September/October. Not that it matters, as it's merely a reflection of the lower frequency circulation/pattern, which will lock into the typical -AAM/-PNA mode by July or August.

[snow_wizard]

For sure... PDO will likely be -8.5 by the of May.    North Pacific might actually freeze over.   

 

Going to cause some interesting marine pushes in July... maybe with freezing fog for days.  

 

Why on Earth are you so defensive about this?  No doubt the PDO is going to drop.

[BLI snowman]

Why on Earth are you so defensive about this?  No doubt the PDO is going to drop.

 

Tim having a -ENSO panic attack. He probably breaks out in hives with every lowering of the CFS ENSO forecasts.