El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[Front Ranger]

Whatever helps you downplay at night.

 

Accuracy. Your statement was incorrect.

[BLI snowman]

I remember Mark Nelsen posting a map that broke the states into regions. If I recall 2014 was the hottest on record for the Willamette Valley and Puget Sound regions.

 

It was certainly the hottest July-September on record, regionally, which is more representative of that summer anyway, since the warmth was centered on JAS.

 

Yes, if you look at JAS then 2014 rises to 2nd hottest for WA and 4th hottest for OR.  Of course with that metric 2015 drops quite a bit thanks to September.

 

Regionally 2014 is the 4th hottest JAS and the 9th hottest JJA. But like you said, the heat was focused on the westside and the Willamette Valley and Puget Sound each had their hottest JAS in 2014 and hottest JJA in 2015. So back to back years with recordbreaking trimonthly summer warmth on the westside. Certainly noteworthy.

[Jesse]

Accuracy. Your statement was incorrect.

Yet to be seen. I was referring to the maps that break the PNW up into regions.

[Jesse]

Yes, if you look at JAS then 2014 rises to 2nd hottest for WA and 4th hottest for OR. Of course with that metric 2015 drops quite a bit thanks to September.

 

Regionally 2014 is the 4th hottest JAS and the 9th hottest JJA. But like you said, the heat was focused on the westside and the Willamette Valley and Puget Sound each had their hottest JAS in 2014 and hottest JJA in 2015. So back to back years with recordbreaking trimonthly summer warmth on the westside. Certainly noteworthy.

Nah, it was all UHI.

 

We all just need to ignore the rest of the region as much as possible, and focus on OLM.

[Front Ranger]

Nah, it was all UHI.

 

We all just need to ignore the rest of the region as much as possible, and focus on OLM.

Nah, like I said most the UHI-unaffected stations did not see back to back record warm summers.

 

Even if you change the period defined as summer from one year to the next.

[James Jones]

Since September is as much of a summer month as June around here, maybe it makes sense to look at the warmest June-September periods on record. For the Puget Sound, 2015 was #1 at 64.2 degrees, 1958 was #2 at 64.0, and 1967 was tied with 2014 for #3 at 63.7.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Mtm7zi5.png

 

 

 

For the Willamette Valley, 2015 was #1 at 66.0, and 1967 was tied with 2014 for #2 at 65.6.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Tqb4sBF.png

[Jesse]

Since September is as much of a summer month as June around here, maybe it makes sense to look at the warmest June-September periods on record. For the Puget Sound, 2015 was #1 at 64.2 degrees, 1958 was #2 at 64.0, and 1967 was tied with 2014 for #3 at 63.7.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Mtm7zi5.png

 

 

 

For the Willamette Valley, 2015 was #1 at 66.0, and 1967 was tied with 2014 for #2 at 65.6.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Tqb4sBF.png

Great find. These are the regional ranking charts I was talking about.

 

Paints a much more accurate picture, since you get both rural and urban stations in the mix.

[snow_wizard]

 

Since September is as much of a summer month as June around here, maybe it makes sense to look at the warmest June-September periods on record. For the Puget Sound, 2015 was #1 at 64.2 degrees, 1958 was #2 at 64.0, and 1967 was tied with 2014 for #3 at 63.7.

 

 

 

 

For the Willamette Valley, 2015 was #1 at 66.0, and 1967 was tied with 2014 for #2 at 65.6.

 

 

 

This is a great site!  I have used it for quite a while for research.

[Front Ranger]

Fair enough. Seasons are not generally defined as 4 month periods, but I'll go with it.

 

However, my statement still stands. The long term, reliable stations in the region with little UHI increase do not show 2014 and 2015 as the top two warmest summers. Whether you use JJA or JJAS.

 

JJAS

 

OLM: 2014 ranks #4 warmest

Battle Ground: 2014 ranks #4

Downtown Portland: 2014 ranks #5

Forest Grove: 2014 ranks #4

EUG: 2014 ranks #3

[James Jones]

This is a great site!  I have used it for quite a while for research.

Agreed, you can really spend a lot of time playing around with it. Lots of interesting stuff for weather/climo geeks.

[westiztehbest]

A few interesting tweets regarding the ENSO evolution:

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/715207447808503808

 

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/714975321536069632

 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/715245293713899520

 

 

Solar continues is slow decline:

 

[TT-SEA]

 

A few interesting tweets regarding the ENSO evolution:

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/715207447808503808

 

 

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/714975321536069632

 

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/715245293713899520

 

 

 

Love that North Pacific SSTA depiction for September.    That is a strongly positive PDO shown there.

[Front Ranger]

Love that North Pacific SSTA depiction for September.    That is a strongly positive PDO shown there.

 

Why do you love that? PDO last September was strongly positive...

[TT-SEA]

Why do you love that? PDO last September was strongly positive...

 

 

Just because it would be nice to avoid going into a negative PDO situation again.   

 

Not specifically referring to last September... just referencing the map for September above.

 

And not that it matters to this discussion... but last September was pleasant.  

[Jesse]

Why do you love that? PDO last September was strongly positive...

He figures it's something I won't like.

 

Anytime Tim mentions September he is generally aiming to get a reaction out of me. It's cute how much he cares.

[Jesse]

Just because it would be nice to avoid going into a negative PDO situation again.

 

Not specifically referring to last September... just referencing the map for September above.

 

And not that it matters to this discussion... but last September was pleasant.

Why wouldn't you want a negative PDO? This last winter was positive PDO and it was one of the wettest on record. Sometimes I think you get pretty mixed up between what you actually want and what you feel you should root for simply because you believe a select few people won't like it.

 

At least we can agree that last September was pretty darn nice. Although I would enjoy seeing a slightly cooler one at some point.

[TT-SEA]

I think the upcoming pattern is favorable to re-assert the warmer than normal waters off the PNW coast.   Its already coming back.    Hopefully we can maintain this SSTA pattern in the North Pacific all summer.   

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.3.31.2016.gif

[TT-SEA]

Why wouldn't you want a negative PDO? This last winter was positive PDO and it was one of the wettest on record. Sometimes I think you get pretty mixed up between what you actually want and what you feel you should root for simply because you believe a select few people won't like it.

 

At least we can agree that last September was pretty darn nice. Although I would enjoy seeing a slightly cooler one at some point.

 

 

I don't want a negative PDO until maybe late fall.      Seems to help with a warm summer and I like warm summers.   Pretty simple.

 

The SSTA map right now looks much like it did in early spring of 1998.    That year... the +PDO hung on a little while longer and we had a great summer.   It went fairly negative in the late summer and fall and still screwed us the following winter.   Although it was a great year for the mountains.   You like 8 months of non-stop rain.   Probably will have a repeat next winter!   Its all good.   I just want a nice summer in between two VERY wet winters.    You want rain and cold all summer as well.   To each their own.   You should move to Juneau.  

[Front Ranger]

Just because it would be nice to avoid going into a negative PDO situation again.   

 

Not specifically referring to last September... just referencing the map for September above.

 

And not that it matters to this discussion... but last September was pleasant.  

 

You don't think the winters from 2007-13 were better than the last couple years?

[Front Ranger]

I don't want a negative PDO until maybe late fall.      Seems to help with a warm summer and I like warm summers.   Pretty simple.

 

Eh, 2006, 2009, and 2013 summers were all essentially neutral or -PDO. Very +PDO tends to be correlated to warm summers, but the state of the PDO has a much stronger correlation to winter temps.

[Jesse]

I don't want a negative PDO until maybe late fall. Seems to help with a warm summer and I like warm summers. Pretty simple.

 

The SSTA map right now looks much like it did in early spring of 1998. That year... the +PDO hung on a little while longer and we had a great summer. It went fairly negative in the late summer and fall and still screwed us the following winter. Although it was a great year for the mountains. You like 8 months of non-stop rain. Probably will have a repeat next winter! Its all good. I just want a nice summer in between two VERY wet winters. You want rain and cold all summer as well. To each their own. You should move to Juneau.

Good lord. That first paragraph would have been just fine on its own. Was the rant at the end really necessary to go back and add? Do you feel better now?

[Jesse]

You don't think the winters from 2007-13 were better than the last couple years?

I don't think he knows what he wants.

[BLI snowman]

Eh, 2006, 2009, and 2013 summers were all essentially neutral or -PDO. Very +PDO tends to be correlated to warm summers, but the state of the PDO has a much stronger correlation to winter temps.

 

July 1993's PDO was +2.35 and July 1983's was +3.51.

[Jesse]

July 1993's PDO was +2.35

But Jim likes negative PDO. He's always talking about it plunging. That is very irritating to Tim for some reason. He simply cannot abide it. Positive PDO in the summer just HAS to be the way to go because of this, even if he himself wouldn't like the observed weather that came with it! Worth it just to be a contrarian to Jim.

[TT-SEA]

July 1993's PDO was +2.35 and July 1983's was +3.51.

 

 

1993 was an extreme situation as highlighted by Phil last night... thanks to Mt. Pinatubo.     Nice try.

 

Looks like 1983 was an extreme situation as well.  

 

Not a hard and fast rule either... but its worked for the last 2 summers.    

[TT-SEA]

But Jim likes negative PDO. He's always talking about it plunging. That is very irritating to Tim for some reason. He simply cannot abide it. Positive PDO in the summer just HAS to be the way to go because of this, even if he himself wouldn't like the observed weather that came with it! Worth it just to be a contrarian to Jim.

 

 

Nice rant.   Feel better?

 

I like warm summers.    Don't control it.   Just like what I see right now in terms of the SSTA map.  

[BLI snowman]

1993 was an extreme situation as highlighted by Phil last night... thanks to Mt. Pinatubo.     Nice try.

 

Not a hard and fast rule either... but its worked for the last 2 summers.    

 

1983 was the highest July PDO on record and it was the wettest July on record.

 

The frigid July of 1986 was +1.38

 

The extreme Midwest heat summer of 1936 had extremely high PDO, and generally weak troughing all summer long in the NW

 

1997 had a cool July in spite of the developing Nino and a PDO over +2

 

It's not hard to find "exceptions".

[TT-SEA]

1983 was the highest July PDO on record and it was the wettest July on record.

 

The frigid July of 1986 was +1.38

 

The extreme Midwest heat summer of 1936 had extremely high PDO, and generally weak troughing all summer long in the NW

 

1997 had a cool July in spite of the developing Nino and a PDO over +2

 

It's not hard to find "exceptions".

 

 

Yeah... don't cheer for a extremely positive PDO.      Pretty simple again.    I already knew that.   But would be nice to stay on the positive side this summer

[Front Ranger]

July 1993's PDO was +2.35 and July 1983's was +3.51.

 

Like I said, much stronger PDO correlation in winter.

[Phil]

1993 was an extreme situation as highlighted by Phil last night... thanks to Mt. Pinatubo. Nice try.

 

Looks like 1983 was an extreme situation as well.

 

Not a hard and fast rule either... but its worked for the last 2 summers.

Actually, 1983 was also a volcanic year (El Chichón). There's a standard set of processes that occurs during volcanic years that complicates their use as analogs.

 

Fortunately, in the case of 1983, it's a viable analog for other reasons.

[Phil]

Like I said, much stronger PDO correlation in winter.

Over the NH, temperatures are more strongly correlated to the PDO (and higher latitude SSTs in general) during the warm season. In the winter, these SST signatures are almost meaningless as a forcing.

[TT-SEA]

Over the NH, temperatures are more strongly correlated to the PDO (and higher latitude SSTs in general) during the warm season. In the winter, these SST signatures are almost meaningless as a forcing.

 

 

That was my thinking as well.   

[Front Ranger]

Over the NH, temperatures are more strongly correlated to the PDO (and higher latitude SSTs in general) during the warm season. In the winter, these SST signatures are almost meaningless as a forcing.

 

Ugh...you're confusing correlation with cause here. We've been over this.

 

For the PNW specifically, the correlation to the PDO and temps is quite strong in the cold season. I've provided the stats that show this many times in the past.

[Phil]

Ugh...you're confusing correlation with cause here. We've been over this.

 

For the PNW specifically, the correlation to the PDO and temps is quite strong in the cold season. I've provided the stats that show this many times in the past.

The correlations between SSTAs and corresponding temperature anomalies are stronger over the NH during the summer, which makes sense, physically speaking. Why does it matter whether the relationship is causative or correlative?

 

There should be a stronger correlation between the PDO and PNW temperatures during the summer, and I'm fairly certain that's the case looking at the data on the ESRL site.

 

That said, if the winter correlation in the PNW is stronger than the summer correlation, this suggests a common causation between variations in the PDO and PNW climate (low frequency external and tropical forcings being likely drivers). In this case, using the PDO to forecast on a seasonal (or at least a sub-seasona) scale resolution doesn't make much sense, given it'll lag the interdecadal swings in forcing/circulation.

[Phil]

In other words, if we have a La Niña/+PDO in September, it is in no way predictive of the nature of the forthcoming winter.

 

This is due to the fact that it takes time to reorganize the thermal structure of the upper ocean, which will respond to/lag the circulatory changes occurring at the surface.

[Front Ranger]

In other words, if we have a La Niña/+PDO in September, it is in no way predictive of the nature of the forthcoming winter.

I'll be happy to share stats later.

[snow_wizard]

Talk about a change of heart for the CFS.  Wow!

 

[TT-SEA]

Talk about a change of heart for the CFS. Wow!

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/imagesInd3/nino34Mon.gif

You spent the last 6 months saying how embarrassing and horrific and shockingly bad that model is... so now it's good?

[Jesse]

You spent the last 6 months saying how embarrassing and horrific and shockingly bad that model is... so now it's good?

It was the last major model not showing us dipping into a strong Niña, and now it's on board. It finally caught up to the others. Let the good times roll!

[TT-SEA]

It was the last major model not showing us dipping into a strong Niña, and now it's on board. It finally caught up to the others. Let the good times roll!

Yippee! 1998-99 winter? The CFS is crap so it's always crap.

 

Too early for any of the models to be accurate yet. Have to get through spring. You know that. I am sure it won't be a Nino... the rest is just noise right now.