El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[TT-SEA]

Why on Earth are you so defensive about this?  No doubt the PDO is going to drop.

 

 

I am poking at Phil for some previously dramatic predictions.   

 

And this is the pot calling the kettle black by the way.   

[Phil]

I am poking at Phil for some previously dramatic predictions.

 

And this is the pot calling the kettle black by the way.

Yeah, okay.

 

I can almost feel your blood pressure spike when the topic of summer temperatures comes up. Like clockwork, whenever I discuss it or anything related to it, you show up.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, okay.

 

I can almost feel your blood pressure spike when the topic of summer temperatures comes up. Like clockwork, whenever I discuss it or anything related to it, you show up.

 

 

You started the poking by saying how much I would hate this summer and making some misleading statements about how summer works here.   

[TT-SEA]

And Phil... you were up posting at 3:39 a.m. there.    When do you sleep?

[Brennan]

I’m sensing mother nature has been holding back on the PNW for some time now, and this winter she’s going to pull the plug. 

[TT-SEA]

I’m sensing mother nature has been holding back on the PNW for some time now, and this winter she’s going to pull the plug. 

 

 

And all historical signs point to it happening in January as well... our most disappointing winter month in recent years.

[Phil]

You started the poking by saying how much I would hate this summer and making some misleading statements about how summer works here.

Dude, I was joking about the temper-tantrum thing, and that was over a week ago. I even said yesterday that I thought you'd enjoy the summer overall.

 

Again..blood pressure.

[Phil]

And Phil... you were up posting at 3:39 a.m. there. When do you sleep?

Lol, I have two exams this week, finals in three weeks, in addition to work. I don't get much sleep these days.

[TT-SEA]

Dude, I was joking about the temper-tantrum thing, and that was over a week ago. I even said yesterday that I thought you'd enjoy the summer overall.

 

Again..blood pressure.

 

 

Later on you have said that.   There was some misinformation how about summer works here locally at the start.    Not a big deal... we have to talk about something!

[Phil]

Later on you have said that. There was some misinformation how about summer works here locally at the start. Not a big deal... we have to talk about something!

There wasn't any misinformation. I was ribbing you a bit because you were jumping on every post I made, while using what I think is voodoo-science in the process. It's all good though.

[TT-SEA]

El Nino being ripped apart...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.21.2016.gif

[Phil]

El Nino being ripped apart...

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/2016/anomnight.4.21.2016.gif

Ah, ninja'd.

[Jesse]

Ah, ninja'd.

More like Niña'd.

[Black Hole]

This rapid transition should continue for another month or two as the last of the warm water near the surface is moved away. After that, I guess we will have to see. 

[Phil]

Based on the strength, propagation, and remaining inertial potential of the oceanic upwelling KW, La Niña conditions should be present in Niño3 by mid/late May:

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/nino3.png

[Phil]

This rapid transition should continue for another month or two as the last of the warm water near the surface is moved away. After that, I guess we will have to see.

The ongoing upwelling KW will eventually cycle/retract, so there might be a temporary pause/slowing in the development of the La Niña during late Spring/early Summer if there isn't an established forcing component in the IO/WPAC by the time it does so.

 

In fact, I anticipate a WPAC forcing component will indeed remain through most of May/June, hence my hedging towards a warm May/June in the PNW/NW North America, with a SW/S-Central US trough favored under higher heights poleward over Canada/Northern US.

 

Once into July/August, lower frequency IO/WPAC forcing should establish, so at that stage I suspect everything will fall into place. However, if Niña (IO/MT) forcing establishes during June, then the La Niña will likely end up stronger than I'm currently anticipating, as will the summer tendency towards a -AAM/-PNA circulation..

[GHweatherChris]

Even with the current La Nina forecast possible, I think we are gonna have a extremely hot summer and then really notice the shift late fall throughout winter.  The next 10 months could be very exciting!!

[Phil]

Even with the current La Nina forecast possible, I think we are gonna have a extremely hot summer and then really notice the shift late fall throughout winter. The next 10 months could be very exciting!!

I guess anything is possible, but remember that the hemispheric summer circulations are largely driven by the tropical forcings. So if forcing is where we'd expect it during a developing La Niña (IO/MT domain(s)), then there's little chance at obtaining a warmer than average pattern in your region one that occurs, given the majority of the height rises/ridging will occur offshore over the NPAC with forcing located there.

 

The broad question is, will forcing become Niña like in late May/early June, or will it take until mid/late July? I suspect the latter will hold true, in this particular circumstance.

[GHweatherChris]

I guess anything is possible, but remember that the hemispheric summer circulations are largely driven by the tropical forcings. So if forcing is where we'd expect it during a developing La Niña (IO/MT domain(s)), then there's little chance at obtaining a warmer than average pattern in your region one that occurs, given the majority of the height rises/ridging will occur offshore over the NPAC with forcing located there.

 

The broad question is, will forcing become Niña like in late May/early June, or will it take until mid/late July? I suspect the latter will hold true, in this particular circumstance.

Which could mean a real shot at a hot summer here still and then we see notable affects of La Nina as we head towards winter, which is where most of us want to see real extremes!!!

[Dan the Weatherman]

I guess anything is possible, but remember that the hemispheric summer circulations are largely driven by the tropical forcings. So if forcing is where we'd expect it during a developing La Niña (IO/MT domain(s)), then there's little chance at obtaining a warmer than average pattern in your region one that occurs, given the majority of the height rises/ridging will occur offshore over the NPAC with forcing located there.

 

The broad question is, will forcing become Niña like in late May/early June, or will it take until mid/late July? I suspect the latter will hold true, in this particular circumstance.

 

Does MT stand for Maritime Continent or Mountain Torque?

[Dan the Weatherman]

A developing La Nina during the summer would likely lead to hotter than normal weather at some point during the summer in the Midwest and central part of the country, while the immediate west coast would see temperatures somewhat below normal as weak troughing takes up residence over the PNW.

[Phil]

Does MT stand for Maritime Continent or Mountain Torque?

The former, sorry should've clarified.

[snow_wizard]

Which could mean a real shot at a hot summer here still and then we see notable affects of La Nina as we head towards winter, which is where most of us want to see real extremes!!!

 

The change will almost certainly come before late fall.  I suspect August or September.

[TT-SEA]

Interesting that all this talk about 1983 and that year went from strong Nino to basically neutral.     And the Nino held on through the summer of 1983.

 

We are running WAY warmer than 1983 to this point in the year.   I am sure that year was colder overall due to volcanic influence.   There is no comparison and the ENSO is actually not a good match.   1983 was like 1958 from and ENSO perspective and those were very different summers here.

 

There are only a handful of years that made the full transition from strong Nino to solid Nina.   None of them were notably colder than normal in the second half of summer.

Show me a year where we thoroughly crashed from a strong Nino to at least a moderate Nina by early fall and it was colder than normal here in July - September.  

 

1889 - crashed quickly from strong Nino to strong Nina and it was warm into October.

 

1942 - crashed as well to a Nina by mid-summer and September was very sunny and warm... almost no rain in September of 1942 with highs in the 70s and 80s.

 

1973 - another example of strong Nino to Nina and it was still above normal here in September.

 

1988 - crashed quickly into a fairly strong Nino by mid-summer and that year was almost perfectly normal and very sunny and dry during July - September period.

 

1998 - strong Nino to Nina and it was very warm in the July - September period.

 

 

Show me a year where we thoroughly crashed from a strong Nino to at least a moderate Nina by early fall and it was colder than normal here in July - September.  

[Phil]

Interesting that all this talk about 1983 and that year went from strong Nino to basically neutral. And the Nino held on through the summer of 1983.

 

We are running WAY warmer than 1983 to this point in the year. I am sure that year was colder overall due to volcanic influence. There is no comparison and the ENSO is actually not a good match. 1983 was like 1958 from and ENSO perspective and those were very different summers here.

 

There are only a handful of years that made the full transition from strong Nino to solid Nina. None of them were notably colder than normal in the second half of summer.

Show me a year where we thoroughly crashed from a strong Nino to at least a moderate Nina by early fall and it was colder than normal here in July - September.

 

1889 - crashed quickly from strong Nino to strong Nina and it was warm into October.

 

1942 - crashed as well to a Nina by mid-summer and September was very sunny and warm... almost no rain in September of 1942 with highs in the 70s and 80s.

 

1973 - another example of strong Nino to Nina and it was still above normal here in September.

 

1988 - crashed quickly into a fairly strong Nino by mid-summer and that year was almost perfectly normal and very sunny and dry during July - September period.

 

1998 - strong Nino to Nina and it was very warm in the July - September period.

 

 

Show me a year where we thoroughly crashed from a strong Nino to at least a moderate Nina by early fall and it was colder than normal here in July - September.

Making s**t up again?

 

Here's July-September 1973:

 

 

Here's July-September 1988:

 

 

Here's July-September 1983:

 

[Jesse]

This is really stressing Tim out, Phil. You need to stop talking about the prospect of this multi-year run of record warmth ending. It's just too painful to think about.

[TT-SEA]

Phil... 1983 should be thrown out.   Nino hung on all summer and barely fell to neutral by the end of the year.

 

If you include 1983... include 1958.   They are both probably crap because we are not hanging out to a Nino all summer.

 

 

September of 1889, 1942, 1973, 1988, 1998 were all above normal in Seattle and at my location.    So its not likely to be getting increasingly colder than normal as we get later into the summer and into September.  

[TT-SEA]

This is really stressing Tim out, Phil. You need to stop talking about the prospect of this multi-year run of record warmth ending. It's just too painful to think about.

 

 

There is no stress at all.   Please stop. 

 

I have said about a million times that this summer will be nice either way.     

[Jesse]

There is no stress at all.   Please stop. 

 

I have said about a million times that this summer will be nice either way.     

 

Then why do you care so much?

 

Phil has even agreed with you that July-Sep will probably be pretty nice even if it is slightly below average overall. Yet every time he makes a post about a mid-summer pattern change you jump all over it and act like he is calling for drizzle and upper 40s from July 4th onward. Reeks of anxiety.

 

You are clearly really weary of leaving our regime of constant warmth that has dominated since the beginning of 2014. It has almost become like a security blanket for you.

[TT-SEA]

Then why do you care so much?

 

Phil has even agreed with you that July-Sep will probably be pretty nice even if it is slightly below average overall. Yet every time he makes a post about a mid-summer pattern change you jump all over it and act like he is calling for drizzle and upper 40s from July 4th onward. Reeks of anxiety.

 

You are clearly really weary of leaving our regime of constant warmth that has dominated since the beginning of 2014. It has almost become like a security blanket for you.

 

BS.   You are projecting your own anxiety.   

 

Tiresome.

[Jesse]

BS.   You are projecting your own anxiety.   

 

Tiresome.

 

Ok.

 

Why don't you address my points?

[TT-SEA]

Since we are apparently crashing to a Nina by early summer... we have 5 years since the 1870s that match this ENSO situation.

 

Strong Nino to start the year to Nina by summer.    

 

1889

1942

1973

1988

1998

 

 

Of those years... this year is most like 1889 in terms of warmth through April.    

 

Add in a warming climate and my guess is that 2016 will be warmer than those 5 years.

[TT-SEA]

Ok.

 

Why don't you address my points?

 

I do not need it to be 95 degrees all summer.

 

I do not want a summer like 2015 again.    That is BS.   And I would love a truly snowy winter here.   

 

Discuss the years that went from strong Nino to a Nina by summer.   

 

January is looking great by the way.  

[Jesse]

Since we are apparently crashing to a Nina by early summer... we have 5 years since the 1870s that match this ENSO situation.

 

Strong Nino to start the year to Nina by summer.    

 

1889

1942

1973

1988

1998

 

That is it.  

 

Of those years... this year is most like 1889 in terms of warmth through April.    

 

Add in a warming climate and my guess is that 2016 will be warmer than those 5 years.

 

3 of 5 of those years had ridiculously cool late summer/early fall weather. Cooler in that time frame than anything we have seen in decades.

 

August 1889 had an average temp of 64.8 at Downtown Portland, closer to a normal September these days. September was 61.4, closer to a normal October of the last two years.

 

1973 had a very cool August/near average September. 

 

1988 had a coolish summer and a slightly below average September.

[Jesse]

I don't quite even get what you are fighting, Tim. No one has said this would be a terribly rainy summer. Just a lot cooler than the last few with a gradual shift to a more -PNA pattern by July/August. It is your constant overreaction to these forecasts that gives away your anxiety.

[TT-SEA]

3 of 5 of those years had ridiculously cool late summer/early fall weather. Cooler in that time frame than anything we have seen in decades.

 

August 1889 had an average temp of 64.8 at Downtown Portland, closer to a normal September these days. September was 61.4, closer to a normal October of the last two years.

 

1973 had a very cool August/near average September. 

 

1988 had a coolish summer and a slightly below average September.

 

 

Thanks for facts... I appreciate a real discussion.

[Phil]

Since we are apparently crashing to a Nina by early summer... we have 5 years since the 1870s that match this ENSO situation.

 

Strong Nino to start the year to Nina by summer.

 

1889

1942

1973

1988

1998

 

That is it.

 

Of those years... this year is most like 1889 in terms of warmth through April.

 

Add in a warming climate and my guess is that 2016 will be warmer than those 5 years.

Okay, let's assume you're correct regarding these analogs. Here's how they stack up in terms of surface temperatures on the 1981-2010 baseline.

 

This analysis covers July/August/September:

 

 

Here's 1889 in particular:

 

[TT-SEA]

I don't quite even get what you are fighting, Tim. No one has said this would be a terribly rainy summer. Just a lot cooler than the last few with a gradual shift to a more -PNA pattern by July/August. It is your constant overreaction to these forecasts that gives away your anxiety.

 

I just love talking about summer analogs.   Give it a rest.

[TT-SEA]

I can't get access to 1889 right now.   

 

I have been using this site...

 

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cdo-web/datasets/GHCND/stations/GHCND:USW00024274/detail

[Phil]

Phil... 1983 should be thrown out. Nino hung on all summer and barely fell to neutral by the end of the year.

It did not fall to neutral, it fell to a weak La Niña. Furthermore, forcing went Niña-like during summer, as is now being modeled.

 

If you include 1983... include 1958. They are both probably crap because we are not hanging out to a Nino all summer.

 

No, 1983 -> 1984 was a La Niña winter, while 1958 -> 1959 was an El Niño winter..