El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[Jesse]

Yippee! 1998-99 winter? The CFS is crap so it's always crap.

 

Too early for any of the models to be accurate yet. Have to get through spring. You know that. I am sure it won't be a Nino... the rest is just noise right now.

 

Ok.

[TT-SEA]

 

Ok.

 

 

Its true.   You have to get through spring before the ENSO signal becomes clear each year.    Spring predictability barrier... 

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break

 

 

You won't know for sure until May or June... neutral, cold neutral, weak Nina, strong Nina.

 

Weak Nina probably offers the best odds for us if you like arctic air.

[bainbridgekid]

Its true.   You have to get through spring before the ENSO signal becomes clear each year.    Spring predictability barrier... 

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break

 

 

You won't know for sure until May or June... neutral, cold neutral, weak Nina, strong Nina.

 

Weak Nina probably offers the best odds for us if you like arctic air.

What kind of monster doesn't?

[Front Ranger]

Its true.   You have to get through spring before the ENSO signal becomes clear each year.    Spring predictability barrier... 

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break

 

 

You won't know for sure until May or June... neutral, cold neutral, weak Nina, strong Nina.

 

Weak Nina probably offers the best odds for us if you like arctic air.

 

Weak/moderate Nina (-.8 to -1.3 ONI) is most likely, imo.

[Front Ranger]

What kind of monster doesn't?

 

Pretty sure Hitler and Jeffrey Dahmer hated Arctic air.

[Jesse]

Its true. You have to get through spring before the ENSO signal becomes clear each year. Spring predictability barrier...

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/spring-predictability-barrier-we%E2%80%99d-rather-be-spring-break

 

 

You won't know for sure until May or June... neutral, cold neutral, weak Nina, strong Nina.

 

Weak Nina probably offers the best odds for us if you like arctic air.

Well yeah, but it's pretty obvious we are in for some sort of cold ENSO episode. What set the CFS apart for so long was that it as showing us going back into a warm neutral or even another Nino next winter for awhile. It just recently came around.

[TT-SEA]

Pretty sure Hitler and Jeffrey Dahmer hated Arctic air.

 

 

I heard that they were both unreasonably obsessed with arctic air and cold departures.   

[Front Ranger]

I'll be happy to share stats later.

 

Winters since 1948 (modern airport era) when the PDO averaged -1 or lower in Sep/Oct.

 

 

 

 

Same thing when the PDO averaged +1 or higher in Sep/Oct (2015-16 will join this list).

 

 

[Front Ranger]

I heard that they were both unreasonably obsessed with arctic air and cold departures.   

 

No, that was Abe Lincoln. And Ghandi.

[Phil]

Winters since 1948 (modern airport era) when the PDO averaged -1 or lower in Sep/Oct.

 

-PDO.png

 

 

Same thing when the PDO averaged +1 or higher in Sep/Oct (2015-16 will join this list).

 

+PDO.png

This doesn't tell me anything.

 

If you want to isolate the PDO, you need to (at least) account for ENSO. One way to do this would be to seperate the years by ENSO (sign+amplitude), then do the same for their PDOs (sign+amplitude). At that point, demonstrating the correlative significance of the PDO, assuming there is any, is a much more straightforward and conclusive process.

[Front Ranger]

This doesn't tell me anything.

 

If you want to isolate the PDO, you need to (at least) account for ENSO. One way to do this would be to seperate the years by ENSO (sign+amplitude), then do the same for their PDOs (sign+amplitude). At that point, demonstrating the correlative significance of the PDO, assuming there is any, is a much more straightforward and conclusive process.

 

It does tell you something, it demonstrates some sort of correlation. 

 

You're basically saying it's all due to ENSO. It would take some work to separate the ENSO signal from the PDO, and I don't have time tonight. But I did it a long time ago, and it was clear that years where the PDO signal was stronger relative to ENSO, the results were very similar. Especially when you look at October.

 

A simpler way to look at it is isolate the years that were not moderate/strong Nina: 1948, 1950, 1961, 1962, 1994, 2000, 2001, 2008, 2011, and 2012.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

Not really ENSO related, but the sun is in a very low period of activity right now.  The x-ray flux, 10cm flux, and sunspot number are all at the lowest levels in years.  Pretty good chance of it going spotless.

[Front Ranger]

Not really ENSO related, but the sun is in a very low period of activity right now.  The x-ray flux, 10cm flux, and sunspot number are all at the lowest levels in years.  Pretty good chance of it going spotless.

 

This is one significant difference from the late 1990s/early 2000s, the worst -ENSO period in PNW history.

[TT-SEA]

Not really ENSO related, but the sun is in a very low period of activity right now.  The x-ray flux, 10cm flux, and sunspot number are all at the lowest levels in years.  Pretty good chance of it going spotless.

 

 

Great news.   Very low solar activity seems to produce some spectacular summers around here.  

[Phil]

It does tell you something, it demonstrates some sort of correlation.

 

You're basically saying it's all due to ENSO. It would take some work to separate the ENSO signal from the PDO, and I don't have time tonight. But I did it a long time ago, and it was clear that years where the PDO signal was stronger relative to ENSO, the results were very similar. Especially when you look at October.

Understood.

 

If you don't have time, I can run the correlations sometime this weekend. I guess we'll find out, but fairly certain that after accounting for ENSO, most of not all of the statistically significant variability will be accounted for.

[snow_wizard]

This is one significant difference from the late 1990s/early 2000s, the worst -ENSO period in PNW history.

 

Indeed.  That Nina came during a solar max.  That could easily account for the problem.  Low solar activity seems to correlate with a slower jet during the winter.

[Jesse]

Great news. Very low solar activity seems to produce some spectacular summers around here.

If there's one thing this forum needs, it is one of our summers finally really delivering.

[TT-SEA]

If there's one thing this forum needs, it is one of our summers finally really delivering.

 

 

Yeah... it would be awesome for the 12 of us who post here in a region of 10 million people.   Its so important! 

[westiztehbest]

Another good sign.  Anyone have any good analogue maps of predominately AO+ winter months for the U.S.?

 

[snow_wizard]

The subsurface profile suggest a rapid collapse of the Nino over the next few weeks.  I think cold ENSO conditions are nearly certain by July now.  The bottom has literally fallen out on the CFS ENSO forecast over the past few days.  Quite impressively sea level anoms on the Equator are already more Nina like than Nino over the eastern sections.

[TT-SEA]

The subsurface profile suggest a rapid collapse of the Nino over the next few weeks.  I think cold ENSO conditions are nearly certain by July now.  The bottom has literally fallen out on the CFS ENSO forecast over the past few days.  Quite impressively sea level anoms on the Equator are already more Nina like than Nino over the eastern sections.

 

You might be cursing a strong Nino next winter.    

 

Side note... your language is so colorful trying to prove a point.    Like you are trying to will nature to behave the way you want.   

[ShawniganLake]

You might be cursing a strong Nino next winter.

 

Side note... your language is so colorful trying to prove a point. Like you are trying to will nature to behave the way you want.

I assume you meant Niña?

[TT-SEA]

I assume you meant Niña?

 

 

I did.   

 

Just don't think a strong Nina is the path to real success next winter.    I can see there being some major disappointment relative to expectations if we have a strong Nina.

 

We all know the Nino is fading... that is a given.   

[snow_wizard]

You might be cursing a strong Nino next winter.    

 

Side note... your language is so colorful trying to prove a point.    Like you are trying to will nature to behave the way you want.   

 

I am actually hoping for a weaker Nina.  Some strong ones do work out like 1942-43, 1955-56, and 1988-89.

[TT-SEA]

I am actually hoping for a weaker Nina.  Some strong ones do work out like 1942-43, 1955-56, and 1988-89.

 

 

We agree.    Your language was just so strong it seemed like you were cheering for the strongest Nina in history.    The Nino is disappearing of course... but my hope is that the demise is tempered and slowed leaving us with a weak Nina.

[Black Hole]

We agree.    Your language was just so strong it seemed like you were cheering for the strongest Nina in history.    The Nino is disappearing of course... but my hope is that the demise is tempered and slowed leaving us with a weak Nina.

You and I would both like a 07-08 repeat, but nobody in the lower valleys would want that. That was a really fun year here in Utah. 

[snow_wizard]

You and I would both like a 07-08 repeat, but nobody in the lower valleys would want that. That was a really fun year here in Utah. 

 

07-08 was very close to being good for everyone.  Whatcom County managed some impressive numbers that winter.  A tiny bit more amplification would have gone a long way.

[Front Ranger]

07-08 was very close to being good for everyone. Whatcom County managed some impressive numbers that winter. A tiny bit more amplification would have gone a long way.

Agreed. 2007-08 and 2008-09 were the best two back to back winters in the PNW above 1000' in a long time. Just look at Spokane.

[ShawniganLake]

Agreed. 2007-08 and 2008-09 were the best two back to back winters in the PNW above 1000' in a long time. Just look at Spokane.

Shawnigan lake received a combined 132" of snow for those 2 winters. Slightly more than 200% of normal. It was a good stretch here. I think it was likely the snowiest 2 year stretch since 70-71 and 71-72.

[Dan the Weatherman]

Shawnigan lake received a combined 132" of snow for those 2 winters. Slightly more than 200% of normal. It was a good stretch here. I think it was likely the snowiest 2 year stretch since 70-71 and 71-72.

 

It really seems to me that this El Nino acted much more like a La Nina pattern as far as the distribution of all the rainfall and snowfall is concerned.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

The CFS flip to a NINA prediction is pretty astounding...Not that it is predicting a Nina, but on how far it has swung in that direction. The CFS right now is calling for temperatures in the SON period to be near long term normals.

[Black Hole]

The CFS flip to a NINA prediction is pretty astounding...Not that it is predicting a Nina, but on how far it has swung in that direction. The CFS right now is calling for temperatures in the SON period to be near long term normals.

 

I heard that there was some kind of fix applied to it. Can't have the flagship climate model of the USA be that clueless can we? Well...

[SilverFallsAndrew]

CFS now says ENSO goes negative by late June. 

[Phil]

Based on the location, intensity, and forward propagation of the upwelling tongue (trailing the remnants of the last coherent oceanic KW), we should see negative equatorial SSTAs surface in the vicinity of 140W-160W between April 25th and May 10th.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

[snow_wizard]

Based on the location, intensity, and forward propagation of the upwelling tongue (trailing the remnants of the last coherent oceanic KW), we should see negative equatorial SSTAs surface in the vicinity of 140W-160W between April 25th and May 10th.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_update/wkxzteq.shtml

 

Looks like the transition is going to be very sudden.

[Phil]

Interesting to note the eastward shift in the upwelling tongue/cooling relative to both 1983 and 1998. What's currently ongoing is more reminiscent of what occurred in 1988, delayed by approximately 5-8 weeks.

[snow_wizard]

Interesting to note the eastward shift in the upwelling tongue/cooling relative to both 1983 and 1998. What's currently ongoing is more reminiscent of what occurred in 1988, delayed by approximately 5-8 weeks.

 

 

 

1988 - 89 was a really interesting winter.

[Dan the Weatherman]

1988-89 was not really that interesting in Socal, since it was such a dry winter, being a part of the late 80's to early 90's drought. However, we have had better La Nina years more recently that have been more interesting. I have a feeling a La Nina this winter may be much different and potentially much wetter, and one reason I think this is because this El Nino was such a major bust for the region.

[westiztehbest]

Scripps is going ape on a super la nina.  I'm doubtful, though.  I'd say we get a third or half the reading it's outputting. 

 

 

 

[Phil]

Looks like the newer CFS ensemble runs (blue plots) decided to join the super-Niña party. My opinion is still unchanged, as I favor a moderate event in the -1.1 to -1.3 ONI range.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/images3/nino34Monadj.gif