El Nino is Dead. Long Live La Nina.

[TT-SEA]

We have differing opinions. Let it go. I like snow, crisp October days, cool summer evenings, sub-freezing highs and strong marine pushes. Haven't seen much of any of those in the last few years.

I suspect we will have a warm summer and fall and then a very wet and relatively mild winter with a strong jet. Watching January as the exception... could be interesting that month.

 

Maybe if this Nina is strong enough it will open up the possibility of neutral or a weak Nino in 2017-18.

[Jesse]

I suspect we will have a warm summer and fall and then a very wet and relatively mild winter with a strong jet. Watching January as the exception... could be interesting that month.

 

Maybe if this Nina is strong enough it will open up the possibility of neutral or a weak Nino in 2017-18.

Good thing you really have no idea what will happen in reality.

 

We are heading for what looks to be a strong Niña and a tanking PDO with low solar. Good enough for me. Let's sit back and see where that takes us.

[TT-SEA]

Good thing you really have no idea what will happen in reality.

 

We are heading for what looks to be a strong Niña and a tanking PDO with low solar. Good enough for me. Let's sit back and see where that takes us.

Low solar is a great thing overall.

 

So sit back. You are the one wanting it to change fast when its so nice already.

[Jesse]

Low solar is a great thing overall.

 

So sit back. You are the one wanting it to change fast when its so nice already.

I'm enjoying watching this Niña form.

[TT-SEA]

I'm enjoying watching this Niña form.

Fair enough... still has been a spectacular spring.

[Black Hole]

Good thing you really have no idea what will happen in reality.

 

We are heading for what looks to be a strong Niña and a tanking PDO with low solar. Good enough for me. Let's sit back and see where that takes us.

 

Odds favor a multi-year nina (2-3) at this point. How that translates for our actual weather, I guess we will just have to wait and see. But low solar seems to promote blocking, so that is a plus IMO. 

[TT-SEA]

Odds favor a multi-year nina (2-3) at this point. How that translates for our actual weather, I guess we will just have to wait and see. But low solar seems to promote blocking, so that is a plus IMO. 

 

 

Totally agree with this.

[Phil]

Any new updates?

 

Can't wait for this warm period to get crushed.

Watch mid/late May for the ignition of easterly wind bursts/-AAM as IO forcing gets cranking. Until then, we're kind of in no mans land with an oceanic KW upwelling colder waters but no representative atmospheric forcing/signal.

[TT-SEA]

Watch mid/late May for the ignition of easterly wind bursts/-AAM as IO forcing gets cranking. Until then, we're kind of in no mans land with an oceanic KW upwelling colder waters but no representative atmospheric forcing/signal.

 

 

Following 1889 perfectly.   

 

If that is the case... we can only hope that next spring and summer is as nice as the strong Nina year of 1890.     I wonder if really low solar played a role in that.

[Phil]

I suspect we will have a warm summer and fall and then a very wet and relatively mild winter with a strong jet. Watching January as the exception... could be interesting that month.

 

Maybe if this Nina is strong enough it will open up the possibility of neutral or a weak Nino in 2017-18.

There's essentially no analog support for a warm late summer/fall. That's a truly ridiculous idea with no historical precedent. Come on man, you're smarter than this.

 

Regarding winter, Niña/-QBO combination can be tough on NPAC blocking, but if solar forcing is low enough it can be overcome in some circumstances. If 2017-18 turns out to be a 2nd year Niña, it has a chance to be something special.

[TT-SEA]

There's essentially no analog support for a warm late summer/fall. That's a truly ridiculous idea with no historical precedent. Come on man, you're smarter than this.

 

Regarding winter, Niña/-QBO combination can be tough on NPAC blocking, but if solar forcing is low enough it can be overcome in some circumstances. If 2017-18 turns out to be a 2nd year Niña, it has a chance to be something special.

 

I agree with 2017-18 and low solar, second year Nina.

 

I am going with persistence and a the effects of a warming climate and larger UHI influence as a basis for my summer forecast.

 

2016 is running WAY warmer than all of your Nino to Nina analogs so far... I suspect we will be saying the same thing at the end of the summer as well.

[Jesse]

There's essentially no analog support for a warm late summer/fall. That's a truly ridiculous idea with no historical precedent. Come on man, you're smarter than this.

 

Regarding winter, Niña/-QBO combination can be tough on NPAC blocking, but if solar forcing is low enough it can be overcome in some circumstances. If 2017-18 turns out to be a 2nd year Niña, it has a chance to be something special.

Intelligence tends to take a back seat when it comes to trolling/wishcasting.

[TT-SEA]

Intelligence tends to take a back seat when it comes to trolling/wishcasting.

True... you have shown me that for years.

 

So 2016 is way warmer than all of his analogs so far. Intelligence goes with persistence.

[Black Hole]

Watch mid/late May for the ignition of easterly wind bursts/-AAM as IO forcing gets cranking. Until then, we're kind of in no mans land with an oceanic KW upwelling colder waters but no representative atmospheric forcing/signal.

This is how I would categorize the current situation as well. If anything, the atmosphere is still more nino than nina at this point even with the rapidly cooling water temperatures.

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

 

 

 

Its so hard to believe that 2016 will be the warmest year in the group of Nino to Nina analogs that Phil laid out?     

 

Really?

 

Doing good so far.   Seems a little likely at least.   Seems like an intelligent basis for a forecast.  

 

Even if its less above normal later in the summer... I think 2016 will end up the warmest Nino to Nina year is our historical record.

[Phil]

I agree with 2017-18 and low solar, second year Nina.

 

I am going with persistence and a the effects of a warming climate and larger UHI influence as a basis for my summer forecast.

 

2016 is running WAY warmer than all of your Nino to Nina analogs so far... I suspect we will be saying the same thing at the end of the summer as well.

Let's try to discuss this in an elemental, point-by-point manner.

 

1) Why go with "persistence" when the systematic forcings are literally screaming "transition"? I don't get it.

 

2) The warming climate is a non-factor on this timescale/resolution, evidenced by the fact that all of your "warm" J/A/S analogs occurred before 1950, except one. Climate change is a fickle, non-linear beast with multiple conduits and can be expressed both positively and negatively relative to its systematic sign, relatively speaking.

 

3) Why does it matter how warm it's been? If anything, the degree of warmth in A/M/J during Niño to Niña transitions holds an inverse correlation to the J/A/S temperature anomaly in your region. I thought you recognized this? Weren't you just arguing that a warm May/June would favor a cooler J/A/S?

 

I've honestly tried to find consistent support for your general idea, but I can't find anything of the sort. If you'd provide more solid, foundational reasoning for your prediction(s), maybe you'd have fewer people on your case. Just my two cents here.

[TT-SEA]

1) Why go with "persistence" when the systematic forcings are literally screaming "transition"? I don't get it.

 

2) The warming climate is a non-factor on this timescale/resolution, evidenced by the fact that all of your "warm" J/A/S analogs occurred before 1950, except one. Climate change is a fickle, non-linear beast with multiple conduits and can be expressed both positively and negatively relative to its systematic sign, relatively speaking.

 

3) Why does it matter how warm it's been? If anything, the degree of warmth in A/M/J during Niño to Niña transitions holds an inverse correlation to the J/A/S temperature anomaly in your region. I thought you recognized this? Weren't you just arguing that a warm May/June would favor a cooler J/A/S?

 

I've honestly tried to find consistent support for your general idea, but I can't find anything of the sort. If you'd provide more solid, foundational reasoning for your prediction(s), maybe you'd have fewer people on your case. Just my two cents here.

 

 

How about this Phil... my prediction of anomalies by month for SEA:

 

April +6.5

May +3.5

June +2.5

July +1.5

August +1.5

September +1.0

October 0.0

November +1.5 (going to be really wet)

December -1.5

January -2.5 (and lots of lowland snow)

[Phil]

True... you have shown me that for years.

 

So 2016 is way warmer than all of his analogs so far.Intelligence goes with persistence.

 

This is laughably ironic, considering A/M/J holds an inverse temperature anomaly correlation to J/A/S during Niño-to-Niña transitions.

 

Your warm 1942 analog was colder/wetter than normal in A/M/J. So was 1889.

[TT-SEA]

This is laughably ironic, considering A/M/J holds an inverse temperature anomaly correlation to J/A/S during Niño-to-Niña transitions.

 

Your beloved 1942 analog was colder/wetter than normal in A/M/J.

 

 

Beloved??   I don't think I have mentioned 1942 but maybe 2-3 times.  

 

You said I would have loved it and then re-wrote history on here to say its my beloved year!    

[Phil]

Beloved?? I don't think I have mentioned 1942 but maybe 2-3 times.

 

You said I would have loved it and then re-wrote history on here to say its my beloved year!

Dude, both 1889 and 1942 were colder than average during the A/M/J trimonthly. What else do you have left?

[TT-SEA]

Dude, both 1889 and 1942 were colder than average during the A/M/J trimonthly. What else do you have left?

1889 was a warm and dry spring in Seattle.

 

From the Great Seattle Fire page...

 

The spring of 1889 in Seattle had been beautiful. There had been little rain, and temperatures were consistently in the 70s Fahrenheit. Unfortunately, the unusually good weather proved to be disastrous, as the dry conditions conspired with a handful of other elements to allow for the worst fire in city history.

 

You said yourself that 1889 peaked early and was cooler relative to average later in the summer.  

[Phil]

1889 was a warm and dry spring in Seattle.

 

From the Great Seattle Fire page...

 

The spring of 1889 in Seattle had been beautiful. There had been little rain, and temperatures were consistently in the 70s Fahrenheit. Unfortunately, the unusually good weather proved to be disastrous, as the dry conditions conspired with a handful of other elements to allow for the worst fire in city history.

 

You said yourself that 1889 peaked early and was cooler relative to average later in the summer.

Yeah, it was dry, however we're talking about temperatures here. Across the majority of the westside, it was warmer than average in April, cooler than average in May/June, warmer than average in July, cooler than average in August/September.

[TT-SEA]

Through the majority of the westside, it was warmer than average in April, cooler than average in May/June, warmer than average in July, cooler than average in August/September.

Just quit babbling about forcing this and that and match my anomaly forecast for SEA so we can judge this crap at the end of the summer.

[Phil]

Just quit babbling about forcing this and that and match my anomaly forecast for SEA so we can judge this crap at the end of the summer.

Select at least eight stations across the westside, each from a different city and/or county. You can pick them all. Then I'll put up numbers.

 

Using SEA as a regional temperature gauge is analogous to using DCA as a regional snowfall gauge here.

[BLI snowman]

We have differing opinions. Let it go. I like snow, crisp October days, cool summer evenings, sub-freezing highs, mid-April graupel showers and strong marine pushes. Haven't seen much of any of those in the last few years.

 

It's like missing old friends I grew up with.

 

You should call them up and schedule a bowling meetup at Big Al's. 

[James Jones]

Yeah, it was dry, however we're talking about temperatures here. Across the majority of the westside, it was warmer than average in April, cooler than average in May/June, warmer than average in July, cooler than average in August/September.

I don't know where you're getting your numbers, but May and June were both well above average on the westside. June 1889's average high of 79.4 is still the 2nd highest on record for downtown Portland, surpassed only by June 2015 (Portland's UHI wasn't well established at this point, so the monthly mean isn't going to accurately represent how warm of a month it really was).

[TT-SEA]

Select at least eight stations across the westside, each from a different city and/or county. You can pick them all. Then I'll put up numbers.

 

Using SEA as a regional temperature gauge is analogous to using DCA as a regional snowfall gauge here.

I live in the Seattle area. Don't care about Bend or Spokane. Do SEA and PDX.

[Phil]

I live in the Seattle area. Don't care about Bend or Spokane. Do SEA and PDX.

Nope, eight westside stations. Goal is to minimize the potential for contamination via UHI and/or microclimatctic tendencies.

 

Let's start with SEA, BLI, and PDX. You name the rest. Then I'll be more than happy to put up numbers.

[TT-SEA]

Again, eight westside stations. Let's start with SEA, BLI, and PDX. You name the rest.

Don't care enough to forecast outside of my area. Do SEA to start.

 

For the record... the station by my house is running an even bigger positive anomaly this month than SEA.

[Phil]

Don't care enough to forecast outside of my area. Do SEA to start.

 

For the record... the station by my house is running and even bigger positive anomaly this month than SEA.

Dude, I live on the opposite side of the continent. Grow a pair already.

 

I think you're afraid to forecast negative departures outside your UHI hot-zone. You obviously do care, considering the emotion you've invested into this over the last several weeks. Let me know when you've selected five additional stations, and I'll put up numbers.

[TT-SEA]

Dude, I live on the opposite side of the continent. Grow a pair already.

 

I think you know you'll have to forecast negative departures outside your little UHI hot-zone.

Not really. But also don't really care... I think King County will be warmer than normal and that is where I spend 98% of summer.

 

Remember... not even Jesse believes that JAS will actually be below normal. Just less above normal... and I agree.

[Phil]

Not really. But also don't really care if King County is warmer than normal since that is where I spend 98% of summer.

You're a wuss. Here I was actually looking forward to a scientific, regionally representative seasonal forecasting experiment.

[TT-SEA]

You're a wuss. Here I was actually looking forward to a scientific, regionally representative seasonal forecasting experiment.

See addendum above.

[TT-SEA]

You're a wuss. Here I was actually looking forward to a scientific, regionally representative seasonal forecasting experiment.

This conversation has happened while I have mowed the lawn... specifically while dumping bags of grass.

[Phil]

See addendum above.

No balls.

 

Whatever. You talk a big game but that's about it I guess.

[Phil]

I was actually thinking it'd be cool to set up a seasonal/monthly or weekly forecasting contest, using seven or eight stations either across the westside or around the country in general. Would be fun to track over the year.

[TT-SEA]

I was actually thinking it'd be cool to set up a seasonal/monthly or weekly forecasting contest, using seven or eight stations across the westside. Would be fun to track over the year.

Yes... this is a good idea. Don't have time now but I like it.

 

My point was that not even Jesse thinks JAS will actually be below normal. Just less above normal.

[Phil]

Yes... this is a good idea. Don't have time now but I like it.

 

My point was that not even Jesse thinks JAS will actually be below normal. Just less above normal.

I guess that settles it, then.

[Front Ranger]

Yes... this is a good idea. Don't have time now but I like it.

 

My point was that not even Jesse thinks JAS will actually be below normal. Just less above normal.

 

I said before I think there's a 50% chance OLM is below normal JAS.

 

Maybe we should change the title of this thread?