Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 We all know that placement of a low this far out means nothing. Could be anywhere. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 It's amazing how things can change and things still might change. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 For the arctic air next week the 00z is definitely colder than the 18z. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 You're talking about the potential storm next weekend? Yeah big/huge snowstorm for Vancouver and nice snowstorm for Seattle. Maybe Portland also?? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/data/gfs/00/gfs_namer_189_1000_500_thick.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just a wee bit of snow on the GFS in the 168 to 192 time frame. Looks very wicked. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like 850s bottom out around -14C at PDX on this run. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Holy sh*t though!!! The moisture that gets entrained for a good 24 hours is epic, way before winds shift. I'm starting to really feel late Friday/Saturday. If..........it verifies. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 BTW the Canadian shows thicknesses dropping to 508 or a little lower over the Puget Sound region in the 5 to 6 day time frame. It actually has a vortex cutting off and sitting over WA and OR. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 BTW the Canadian shows thicknesses dropping to 508 or a little lower over the Puget Sound region in the 5 to 6 day time frame. It actually has a vortex cutting off and sitting over WA and OR. Sounds nifty! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 If..it verifies, we would be seeing over an inch per hour rates...easily. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Is this site running slow for anyone else???? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the GFS might be setting for a reload after hour 189. Could be epic if the cold can reassert itself. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just a wee bit of snow on the GFS in the 168 to 192 time frame. Looks very wicked. Dude, that is 12-18 somewhere. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Is this site running slow for anyone else???? Not me. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its sad that Flatiron left. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the GFS might be setting for a reload after hour 189. Could be epic if the cold can reassert itself. That is some insane cold. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the GFS might be setting for a reload after hour 189. Could be epic if the cold can reassert itself. Where are you seeing this? I'm seeing southerly winds most likely the next couple of frames. Low is too far north. Not necessarily disagreeing, just want to see what you are seeing. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Monthly minimums so far this cold season... November: 17December: 2January: 20February: ??? Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Dude, that is 12-18 somewhere. Pretty rare for the models to show that kind of precip with such wicked easterly gradients. Could be some Arctic / marine air interaction going on there. Could be huge. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z through HR 168 colder than 18z, but kind of a similar 500mb pattern with not digging the trough as far west. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Where are you seeing this? I'm seeing southerly winds most likely the next couple of frames. Low is too far north. Not necessarily disagreeing, just want to see what you are seeing. He's just talking about how much cold air is in NW Canada. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Where are you seeing this? I'm seeing southerly winds most likely the next couple of frames. Low is too far north. Not necessarily disagreeing, just want to see what you are seeing. Just look like the trough could swing in again. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Pretty rare for the models to show that kind of precip with such wicked easterly gradients. Could be some Arctic / marine air interaction going on there. Could be huge. The 12z was still a much better overall run imo. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Good lord that is some serious moisture. Need that 984 low to track further south by about 200 miles. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just look like the trough could swing in again. I'm dying for some cold onshore flow! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 He's just talking about how much cold air is in NW Canada. I was also referring to the 500mb trough possibly swinging in again. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Its sad that Flatiron left. I just sent him a message on facebook now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Just look like the trough could swing in again. Ya, guess it is possible with that double barrel low. I love to see the triple point much further south though. I agree though that it is very possible the trough could reassert itself. Especially with this winter's lack of prolonged zonal flow. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like Oregon makes up some of that rain deficit in February... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Looks like the GFS might be setting for a reload after hour 189. Could be epic if the cold can reassert itself.December 21st/22nd 2008 again, I say yes PLEASE!!! Granted there was no really reload after the 21st storm, but I had snow on the ground for almost 4 weeks out here after that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Portland north is going to get CRUSHED! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm guessing the 7 to 12 day period will be all over the place the next few days. There is still a chance of an epic period in there. At least this run has a huge snowstorm before the cold is done. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 This blast has some serious potential written all over it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 198 through hr 300 is some serious precipitation and some serious mountain snows. Probably a good 5-6 days of heavy mountain snow above 2-3000 ft. Of course that is la la land. Probably best not to look that far ahead . Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 December 21st/22nd 2008 again, I say yes PLEASE!!! Granted there was no really reload after the 21st storm, but I had snow on the ground for almost 4 weeks out here after that. About the same on the 00Z GFS run. There is no reload. Becomes very wet and windy... all rain for the lowlands. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I'm guessing the 7 to 12 day period will be all over the place the next few days. There is still a chance of an epic period in there. At least this run has a huge snowstorm before the cold is done. The 12z had a decent snow event for NW Oregon...That overrunning sweet spot will move around a bit. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z GEM HR 120better 500mb pattern and colder than GFS. 510 thickness PDXhttp://meteo.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/136_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Still a solid modified arctic blast next week. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Portland north is going to get CRUSHED! So its guaranteed to happen now???? Should say they would get crushed if that run somehow came close to verifying. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Holy crapping cowsHR 144http://meteo.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/495_100.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.