Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 We'd measure snow in feet if that verified, Rob. Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 So its guaranteed to happen now???? Should say they would get crushed if that run somehow came close to verifying. No but the potential is there. I like our chances because everything evens out in the end, moisture will come our way finally. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I will take the coldness of the GEM and the wetness of the GFS. Maybe the ECMWF will show both. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I know one thing. If that verifies then there will be a lot of guys cursing their snow contest numbers . Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The Canadian would likely lead to a totally different scenario next weekend... with the undercut happening much farther south if at all. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sooo...the 00z sucked? I don't like when I hear things like "If only that low would go 200 miles south". Because we all know that in reality it will probably end up 200 miles further north. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sooo...the 00z sucked? I don't like when I hear things like "If only that low would go 200 miles south". Because we all know that in reality it will probably end up 200 miles further north. -14C 850mb temps at PDX suck... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 At this point we just want the models to show consistent cold hitting us. Looking good. We all know low placement/undercutting/overrunning moisture details won't be figured out until we are actually in the cold event. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman Josh Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Sooo...the 00z sucked? I don't like when I hear things like "If only that low would go 200 miles south". Because we all know that in reality it will probably end up 200 miles further north. Very true. I was just trying to keep the cold air around with probably a little less snow . With that deep of cold air in BC though, a reload could happen. 1 Quote God, I'd give anything for a drink. I'd give my god-damned soul for just a glass of beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I will take the colder and drier Canadian thank you very much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Either way its going to be a cold month in North Dakota. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I will take the colder and drier Canadian thank you very much. Me too...Unless we can dial up a March 2012 redux. Imagine that a month earlier... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 -14C 850mb temps at PDX suck...It's annoying when people are negative for no good reason, isn't it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I probably should shut down the forums then, I wouldn't want people to get emotionally wrapped up for some 41F and rain. Thanks Tim! Where did you read that?? The Canadian likely keeps us in the cold longer... but would not have the massive overrunning event next weekend. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I agree... I would prefer the Canadian run. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 PDX finished exactly average for January. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Where did you read that?? The Canadian likely keeps us in the cold longer... but would not have the massive overrunning event next weekend. Your wrong, it would indeed. Massive blizzard if this verifies http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ice storm anyone? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 About the same on the 00Z GFS run. There is no reload. Becomes very wet and windy... all rain for the lowlands.Somewhat similiar, but in 2008 there was no total warmup for another week,. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I agree... I would prefer the Canadian run.The 00z GFS is playing with fire. Sure if such and such low miraculously tracked further south we'd all get snow, but that never happens. Keep us cold and dry for longer then hopefully see a more traditional overrunning event later on. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Ice storm anyone? No thanks. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The 00z GFS is playing with fire. Sure if such and such low miraculously tracked further south we'd all get snow, but that never happens. Keep us cold and dry for longer then hopefully see a more traditional overrunning event later on. I am sure our biggest snow events in history were playing with fire. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 The models all look good for different reasons right now, what a great start going into this snap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted February 1, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Your wrong, it would indeed. Massive blizzard if this verifies http://meteocentre.com/models/gemglb_amer_00/GZ_D5_PN_192_0000.gif I was guessing based on 144 hours... that adds some weight to the GFS solution. Do you have the 850mb temp at that time?? Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS guidance... Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Anyone viewing this site on a Nintendo Wii?Hell no. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS guidance... Something bad... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS guidance... That looks bogus. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sometimesdylan Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 00z continues the cold for us. Winter is very much alive. Crazy. Quote "There are so many waves coming in all the time, you don't have to worry about that. Take your time—wave come. Let the other guys go; catch another one." -Duke Kahanamoku Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 This place is bumming me out tonight. Rob, could you post some pretty WRF runs? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 This place is bumming me out tonight. Rob, could you post some pretty WRF runs?Brrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr http://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/current_extended/images_d2/slp.111.0000.gif Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 This place is bumming me out tonight. Rob, could you post some pretty WRF runs?Dude, just look at the models and ignore people. It is still looking great for cold and a chance for snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 GFS guidance... well that is lame. Quote My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 37 for the high temp? Not with 925mb temps -16chttp://www.atmos.washington.edu/mm5rt/data/2014020100/images_d2/slp.132.0000.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 37 for the high temp? Not with 925mb temps -16c That's what I was thinking. I want to like and respect Andrew, then he posts stuff like that just to get a rise out of people... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I just report the facts. Don't shoot the messenger. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 I just report the facts. Don't shoot the messenger.Where does that fact come from?? I just looked at the meteo output for the 00z gfs for SEA and PDX and it shows nothing like that. And with the actual numbers the models are showing the temps you posted are not realistic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 That's what I was thinking. I want to like and respect Andrew, then he posts stuff like that just to get a rise out of people... That is the GFSx for PDX. Just another tool in our forecasting arsenal! Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Hoping the 00Z was once again warmer than the ensemble mean. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted February 1, 2014 Report Share Posted February 1, 2014 Where does that fact come from?? The GFS model. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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