jcwxguy Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 http://maps1.pivotalweather.com/models/ecmwf/20160320/12Z/f120/sfcmslpconus.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Mix/ice from Detroit to Chicago at hour 90. Heavy snow up this way into S WI, central MI. Low tracks by Jefferson City at 96 hours. 1030 High right over it there. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Euro showing same location of F-band as 00z run...will post maps once loading complete Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 typically a track similar to that would give decent (3"-6") snowfalls to my neck of the woods, depending on temps and moisture of course Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Euro has temps in the mid 30's Wed afternoon when the front stalls and precip breaks out...then they drop considerably as the low quickly phases and tugs down colder air as temps drop into the 20's in NE/IA/N IL/WI/MN. 850's stay below 0C north of IL/WI border and SE IA. Takes a track from KC/STL thru S IL near Springfield, IL. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Still not a believer in anyone south of Oshkosh to LA crosse getting snow. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Got to give the EURO credit with the big systems this winter, except the November one. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 That's pretty consistent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Wow, nuclear snowfall amounts showing up for N IA/S WI...depending on when the heavy defo band comes in either during the day or night will justify the higher snowfall amounts. Either way, the Euro has temps in the upper 20's for the majority of the snowfall from this storm which will help. This is a sweet looking storm on the Euro showing severe storms wrapping up into a solid cold sector. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Still not a believer in anyone south of Oshkosh to LA crosse getting snow.Trolling geos? Easy bet is a gfs euro compromise. Hell it could still be a turd Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Got to give the EURO credit with the big systems this winter, except the November one.2-3 Feet! That's insane...would be a nice storm for the EC let alone for the Midwest/Lakes!. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Only 4 days away Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Gosh, that track on the Euro reminds me of the GHD storm last year... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 If those amount were to verify, or come close to it, parts of WI would end up above normal for seasonal snowfall. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Winds blow off the lake between 30-40 mph Thursday afternoon and night. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 If those amount were to verify, or come close to it, parts of WI would end up above normal for seasonal snowfall.Still a lot of time left but I like how the models were pretty consistent compared to last night Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted March 20, 2016 Author Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Yesterday I needed a 200 mile shift south. Now I just need 50 miles more. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 2-3 Feet! That's insane...would be a nice storm for the EC let alone for the Midwest/Lakes!. Even if a foot fell over a wide area like that, people would freak! Near blizzard conditions late Thursday, early Friday in MI. Ice accumulations near or over an inch where MI, IN, & OH come together. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Geos will freak if the gfs verifies Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Geos will freak if the gfs verifies I might have to come up to your area and play in the snow. The $64k question is how strong is that high to the northeast and where does the front end up on early Wednesday? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Lol... I just hope for everyones sanity if doesnt fizzle Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 That would be one awful model performance if it did espically since we we within 54 hours of the storm developing Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Well, this would be a nice way to start Spring. I'm not expecting much, if any though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Hey Geo's, try loading the full 12z Euro run with correct ratios and look at that map! From CO to the Lakes it looks like a glacier... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Well, this would be a nice way to start Spring. I'm not expecting much, if any though. I think you'll see something. The EURO is unwavering though. Usually in the 72-84 range it locks in pretty close. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 I think you'll see something. The EURO is unwavering though. Usually in the 72-84 range it locks in pretty close.Shhhhh, I'm tring reverse psychology. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 If it was february I wouldnt blink at the euro Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Hey Geo's, try loading the full 12z Euro run with correct ratios and look at that map! From CO to the Lakes it looks like a glacier... Good Lord! Solid 30" of snow from southwest of Des Moines to the Thumb of MI, peaking at close to 40" over Racine and Milwaukee. Tom, can you see what the EURO has for the AO and NAO mid week? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Good Lord! Solid 30" of snow from southwest of Des Moines to the Thumb of MI, peaking at close to 40" over Racine and Milwaukee. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 My bad I left your area out. SE NE and KS are creamed too. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 That's a lot of snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WBadgersW Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 36" bullseye a few miles south of me on Euro. Come on now. lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormgeek Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Ok models, let's get that GFS trend going. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Good Lord! Solid 30" of snow from southwest of Des Moines to the Thumb of MI, peaking at close to 40" over Racine and Milwaukee. Tom, can you see what the EURO has for the AO and NAO mid week? Both NAO/AO are neutral on the 23rd, then tick positive on the 24th....EPO/PNA holds neutral, however, WPO is solidly negative. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Both NAO/AO are neutral on the 23rd, then tick positive on the 24th....EPO/PNA holds neutral, however, WPO is solidly negative. Do you think the -WPO is aiding this big storm development? Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Do you think the -WPO is aiding this big storm development?The storm in itself is a part of the cycling pattern, however, I think the teleconnections can play a role in ultimate storm track. Here are the March WPO/PNA composites: -WPO http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/WPO/WPOneg_03mar.png Neutral PNA... http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/PNA/PNAneu_03mar.png I'll add a neutral EPO also... http://madusweather.com/teleconnection/EPOnew/EPOnew_neu_03mar.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 The storm in itself is a part of the cycling pattern, however, I think the teleconnections can play a role in ultimate storm track. Here are the March WPO/PNA composites: -WPO Neutral PNA... I'll add a neutral EPO also... Doh! Can't be seen. I get the general idea of how the teleconnections are influencing the system. What if half the snowfall happens based on where the EURO is? Widespread 10-15" amounts are going to cause so much disruption over a large area. Thinking about power outages due to the tree limbs breaking off and from excessive ice in a narrow area. Last time I saw heavy amounts like this that far south was at the equinox in 2008 where 12-15" amount fell in a narrow band across southern WI, extreme northern IL. But this storm has the snow band much wider. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Yeah kind of surprising to see the snowband that wide compared to previous storms this winter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 20, 2016 Report Share Posted March 20, 2016 Doh! Can't be seen. I get the general idea of how the teleconnections are influencing the system. What if half the snowfall happens based on where the EURO is? Widespread 10-15" amounts are going to cause so much disruption over a large area. Thinking about power outages due to the tree limbs breaking off and from excessive ice in a narrow area. Last time I saw heavy amounts like this that far south was at the equinox in 2008 where 12-15" amount fell in a narrow band across southern WI, extreme northern IL. But this storm has the snow band much wider. I fixed it...you can see that there is enough teleconnection support to have such a wide snow band in late March. The trend Week 2 is for even more colder conditions with a dislodge of the PV into the northern CONUS according to the GEFS/EPS. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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