Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Ggem runs the low just east of Dubuque. Lots of moisture and cold air on the backside http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/133_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 1.29 QPF+ up near Marquette which would be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 GGEM color maps on WX Bell aren't up to the event now, but would the black and white maps suggest heavy snow here in East Central Iowa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Not sure yet. Out to HR 57 here: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildWisconsinWeather Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 No chance with the low track Iowawx, would likely pass west of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks like it may be heavy snow around Waterloo, but getting closer to rain the further east you go. Hard to tell for sure on back and white maps. I know the 540 line is pretty far east, but that's not always the best indication. I'd say East Central Iowa is still a good amount of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 HR 65 is snow in North-Central Iowa. Rain in eastern IA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 I take it the freezing line would be the dotted black line on the bottom right panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 DSM NE to Prarie Du Chen to just west of Green Bay looks to be the snow line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 DBQ is literally right on the RN/SN line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Weird that DBQ is on the RN/SN line considering the SLP is actually a little further west than the GFS and NAM. Obviously gets a little more cold air wrapped in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Yeah, you start out as a RN/SN mix than switch over to plain old rain and then back to RN/SN as the low passes by. LSE looks to do well this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 I feel like I would get dry slotted as the low passes through and the only hope I would have at some real accumulation snow would be on the backside. My guess is that I start the storm off with maybe a little mix, not lasting long, then switch to all rain, get dry slotted, and then maybe catch a little light snow on the backside if I get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 I feel like I would get dry slotted as the low passes through and the only hope I would have at some real accumulation snow would be on the backside. My guess is that I start the storm off with maybe a little mix, not lasting long, then switch to all rain, get dry slotted, and then maybe catch a little light snow on the backside if I get lucky. GGEM is the only model tonight thats this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 GGEM is the only model tonight thats this far west. Still close enough on most models for me to see a dry slot. And none of them keep me cold enough for much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iowawx Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 20-40 mile shift SE is all I need. Just looked at the GGEM snowfall maps on WX bell and the snow line is from CR/DBQ and NW. 2-6 NW of that line. SLP would actually move right through Rockford, IL. Or just to the west of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 20-40 mile shift SE is all I need. Just looked at the GGEM snowfall maps on WX bell and the snow line is from CR/DBQ and NW. 2-6 NW of that line. SLP would actually move right through Rockford, IL. Or just to the west of there. But you're banking on the GGEM being right with the cold. This is going to be a very close call. GFS and NAM not quite as generous pulling cold air in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 0z UKIE HR 72: 981 over LSE lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Probably gonna have to wake up later and see what the Euro showed. Unfortunately, back to school tomorrow after a long weekend, so some sleep is needed. See ya all tomorrow, let's hope something exciting come from this storm, whether it be a thunderstorm or snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/P1_GZ_D5_PN_072_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
th_snow Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Crazy how good consistent models have been with bigger scale storms like this. But, when a clipper comes through, it can't even figure out the track when the storm is actually hitting the area.Might be because clippers come from Canada where the RAOB network is sparse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 blizzard watch for me?! wasnt expecing that. im right in the thick of it so i hope it dont change over the next 36-48 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Euro was pretty similar to the GEM in terms of track, took it just east of Dubuque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 This could easily turn. Into a msp special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 12z NAM is very close to giving DBQ 6+. MKE talking about issuing winter storm watches for FZR/Sleet if the track shifts farther east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks like a real wrapped up storm for once. Waa should be impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 12z NAM is very close to giving DBQ 6+. MKE talking about issuing winter storm watches for FZR/Sleet if the track shifts farther east.Still a good 90 miles away from the 6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks like a central, ne Iowa snow storm right now. On the flip side the NAM is soaking IL. Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks like I'm gonna be on the short end of the QPF from this storm. Get split by the heavy snow and heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 what was euro snow map from last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 what was euro snow map from last night?Can't link, but I can tell you it had about .50" QPF of snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted February 18, 2014 Author Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 12z GFS takes a 985 MB L over Milwaukee. East of 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Ggem west warm. Gfs now the eastern flank of guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Check out how similar the track is of this storm back in Cycle 2 and now the forecast for Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 looks like a rainy day to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 I could deal with 0.50-0.75" of rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 12z Euro...looks like James is in the right spot for this one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DominicR Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 GFS good hit E IA/WI. Heck take that 75 miles SE put us in the game. Big differences still 60hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Posted February 18, 2014 Report Share Posted February 18, 2014 Looks like a decent icing event looming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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