Preliminary Discussion For Upcoming 2016-2017 Fall and Winter Season

[Niko]

http://snowbrains.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/650x366_10071419_winter-2013-14-adc-hd.jpg

 

The Great Winter of 2013-14.

 

 

Check out the Gl's Region in the purple color.

http://www.cirruswx.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Slide47.png

[Niko]

Lets see if mother nature can provide the same thing this winter!

[jaster220]

http://snowbrains.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/650x366_10071419_winter-2013-14-adc-hd.jpg

 

The Great Winter of 2013-14.

 

 

Check out the Gl's Region in the purple color.

http://www.cirruswx.net/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Slide47.png

 

Lets see if mother nature can provide the same thing this winter!

 

Love your maps Niko. Remember seeing map after map all showing us getting favored for above normal snow and couldn't help but be a bit giddy at the potential even though I hadn't fully recovered from the early forecast debacle of winter 2011-12. Marshall region hadn't scored a 15"(+) storm since Jan of '99 but we scored an 18" (top 5) storm Jan 6th 2014! That winter I really logged my daily snowfall and I sure was a busy guy 

[Niko]

How can you forget a winter like that, right?!

[jaster220]

 

 

So, is that legit SN hitting the ground in no man's land region of Neb?? 

[gabel23]

20161006 conus radar.PNG

 

So, is that legit SN hitting the ground in no man's land region of Neb?? 

Alliance, Alliance Municipal Airport (KAIA)Lat: 42.06°NLon: 102.8°WElev: 3927ft.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/newimages/large/sn.png

Light Snow Fog/Mist

33°F

1°C

Humidity 96% Wind Speed N 8 mph Barometer 30.12 in (1020.7 mb) Dewpoint 32°F (0°C) Visibility 1.25 mi Wind Chill 26°F (-3°C) Last update 6 Oct 10:49 am MDT 

[Niko]

20161006 conus radar.PNG

 

So, is that legit SN hitting the ground in no man's land region of Neb?? 

I'm thinking it might be virga precipitation.

[gabel23]

I'm thinking it might be virga precipitation.

No, the snow out in the Panhandle of nebraska is reaching the ground believe it or not! 

[OKwx2k4]

No, the snow out in the Panhandle of nebraska is reaching the ground believe it or not!

That's awesome!

[Niko]

No, the snow out in the Panhandle of nebraska is reaching the ground believe it or not! 

WOW! Nice.

[Tom]

For those of you who are interested, check out this Winter forecast video from Ben Noll who is a met originally from the U.S. but now works in New Zealand.  He touches on a broad range of important factors that will drive the weather pattern this Winter.  Fast forward the video to the 13:45 mark.

 

https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/784152574383370240

[Jaycee]

It's actually not as uncommon as many people think to get snow in Nebraska this early. In 2009 we had 6" of snow on the 10th of October in Eastern Nebraska, while out west in these areas, they saw 17"! Also, 2009 was our golden year. Maybe a repeat in progress?

[Tom]

I expected that yesterday's storm system that targeted the plains and that is now tracking north of Lake Superior was the first storm of the new 2016-17 LRC pattern.  Here is today's write up from Gary Lezak's Blog.  It's very fascinating that we saw an instant flip in teleconnection as October rolled in to see the AO tank like that.  Fun times ahead!

 

 

Have you been paying close attention to the developing pattern?  We are likely in just day one or two of the new LRC 2016-2017 season. We won’t really know for sure until we move into LRC Cycle 2, but for now it has started. And, right on cue last night something very different happened. If you were paying close attention you may have been able to see the way the thunderstorms developed and tracked across the plains. Right over KC I noticed something that never happened in last year’s pattern when the rain and thunderstorm activity filled in between two lines of thunderstorms. The entire KC metro area went from spotty showers and thunderstorms to the entire city experiencing rain and lightning shooting across the sky. Did you hear the very loud thunder that felt like an earthquake at times. These were positively charged lightning strikes and they usually create the loudest thunder.

What is this?

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/ao.sprd2_.gif

Right on cue, the Arctic Oscillation suddenly dives south deeper into negative territory than we have seen in a very long time. It is not a coincidence that it happens just as the new LRC is setting up and it is something to pay close attention to. It is a good sign that there will be a much colder winter this year than last, which will not be hard to do quite obviously, but a good sign none the less.

[OKwx2k4]

It's actually not as uncommon as many people think to get snow in Nebraska this early. In 2009 we had 6" of snow on the 10th of October in Eastern Nebraska, while out west in these areas, they saw 17"! Also, 2009 was our golden year. Maybe a repeat in progress?

How did you all do in October 2010?

[OKwx2k4]

I expected that yesterday's storm system that targeted the plains and that is now tracking north of Lake Superior was the first storm of the new 2016-17 LRC pattern. Here is today's write up from Gary Lezak's Blog. It's very fascinating that we saw an instant flip in teleconnection as October rolled in to see the AO tank like that. Fun times ahead!

Very nice. I hadn't checked the blog today, but in the last week or so, I have noticed a huge amount of differences as well. Awesome stuff.

[jaster220]

My comment on those further south getting pumped for winter struck a nerve, but this dude posting about Matthew just kills it! Imagine living in FL and dreaming about winter!     

 

Come on, really? Dreaming for that one in 300 yr event really takes this to a whole new level 

 

 

[Tom]

NASA model took a step in the right direction from its previous anomalously torchy Sept run which flooded the lower 48 with warmth.  Today's October run makes more sense and is sorta following the CFS/CFSv2.  Clearly, it wants to keep the ridge off the east coast.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season1.png

 

Winter...DJF...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/current/images/NASA_ensemble_tmp2m_us_season2.png

[OKwx2k4]

My comment on those further south getting pumped for winter struck a nerve, but this dude posting about Matthew just kills it! Imagine living in FL and dreaming about winter!

 

Come on, really? Dreaming for that one in 300 yr event really takes this to a whole new level

 

20161004 FL poster.PNG

Now I can even get a good laugh out of that one! :-)

[Tom]

Just read Dr. Cohen's blog that was updated today and he has some harsh wording for the upcoming winter.  Some of the clues I've been monitoring are on his mind as well.

 

 

 

• Both low sea ice and the negative AO are favorable for the rapid advance of Siberian snow cover.  Eurasian snow cover is above normal and this trend should continue through at least mid-month. High Eurasian snow cover and low Arctic sea ice in the Barents-Kara seas favor first, a strengthening Siberian high and then a weakened polar vortex in winter.
• The polar vortex both in the stratosphere and the troposphere are unusually weak so far this fall, if this trend continues severe winter weather is likely for widespread portions of northern Eurasia, including Europe and East Asia, and the eastern United States (US).

 

Below are more highlights to his blog entry...some interesting analogs which bode well for the central CONUS and that some on here have already touched on.

 

 

 

October 2016 will probably rival other recent Octobers for the most negative October AO observed, which include October 2002 and 2009.  And though there is not a strong relationship between the October AO and the winter AO, the winter AO in 2002/03 and 2009/10 were both negative and cold temperatures were widespread both across northern Eurasia and the Eastern US.  However the AO was much more negative in the latter winter and the evolution of the polar vortex was quite different.  It is still very early and the outcome of this winter still very much in doubt but in my opinion, the longer that the tropospheric and/or stratospheric polar vortex remain weak and the AO negative, favors a colder winter solution.

 

 

Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover

October snow cover advance across Eurasia has so far been more rapid than normal. The predicted negative AO and below normal heights across Siberia favor snow cover to continue advancing at a normal to above normal rate.  With the AO/NAO predicted to be negative at least up to the third week of October confidence is growing that October Eurasian snow cover will be above normal once again this year.  Above normal snow cover favors a strengthened Siberian high and a weakened polar vortex/negative AO this upcoming winter with cold temperatures across the continents of the NH.

[OKwx2k4]

Just read Dr. Cohen's blog that was updated today and he has some harsh wording for the upcoming winter. Some of the clues I've been monitoring are on his mind as well.

 

 

Below are more highlights to his blog entry...some interesting analogs which bode well for the central CONUS and that some on here have already touched on.

Yeah. I posted it under October obs but my worries about this being a brown warm winter here are now officially zero. Just for a safety net of objectivity though, I'll go 10% chance that I have a warm winter. 25% Normal to slightly cool winter and 65% cold to frigid. Snow is going to do what it's going to do.

[GDR]

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast

[OKwx2k4]

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast

He's got the worst east coast bias of anybody I've ever followed but he's generally correct. Just too far east. He really cherry picked some of the most east biased analogs for his forecast and as such he has a really washed out looking cold pattern for the winter.

[Tom]

As the PV strengthens, I'm intrigued to see NCEP forecasting an elongated, yet perfectly positioned vortex over the Pole and into N.A.  If this is the pattern down the road, it's quite interesting to say the least.  Atmospheric blocking is doing a number on the PV this season.

 

Day 7...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f168.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f168.png

 

 

 

Day 10...

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f240.png

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f240.png

 

 

[Tom]

Gary and I are on the same page...he is noticing what will most likely be a part of the new LRC Cycle as the early stages of the PV sends a piece into Canada this week.

 

 

 

The Changing Pattern

by Gary | Oct 9, 2016 | General | No Comments

Good morning Weather2020 bloggers,

A huge ridge is growing over the eastern Gulf of Alaska and over Alaska.  This is a part of the the pattern that will likely produce an Arctic Outbreak this winter, but when? The pattern is just now evolving and setting up, so try to not make any conclusions.

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/GFS-1-640x480.gif

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/GFS-2-640x480.gif

These two maps above show the 500 mb flow up around 18,000 feet.  The first map shows the big ridge forming, and then it closes off into an upper high on the second map. Cross Polar flow develops around a vortex. If it were winter the national media would be saying “Polar Vortex”.  This is a big developing feature for this pattern we are beginning to experience now, but this is just one snapshot in time. Let’s see what cycles through during  the next six to eight weeks. We have a lot more to see before we will be making our winter forecast.

At the surface a cold front will generate and move through by the middle of the week:

http://weather2020.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/4-640x480.gif

We will go more in-depth in the next few blog entries. Have a great day!

[OKwx2k4]

Gary and I are on the same page...he is noticing what will most likely be a part of the new LRC Cycle as the early stages of the PV sends a piece into Canada this week.

I'm on the same page with you guys. This is the most promising thing I've seen so early in the season since '09-10 and '10-11.

[snow_wizard]

JB tossed out another slough of winter analogs today.

 

"59-60,60-61,93-94,95-96,13-14,14-15 would be analogs that would wind up matching such a thing."

 

Why on Earth would he use 2014-15?  A strong Nino and the tropics in general are the complete opposite this year.  I think he will bust big time this winter.

[OKwx2k4]

Also of note, the latest contribution to SOI is -2.xx. It's crashing as we speak. This gives big support for a pretty hefty trough into the central CONUS for the time of year around the 20-22nd, which, of no surprise is now on both models. Should likely see it deepening as we go. Especially within day 5.

[snow_wizard]

I should elaborate a bit about why Joe Bastardi is off base for this winter.  For one he has totally misinterpreted the warm SST's anomalies over the GOA to mean the so called blob is continuing.  In actuality the warm SST anoms are now arranged in a negative PDO configuration.  Couple that with the fact he is underestimating the La Nina as evidenced by the ONI indicating we have already had one tri monthly reading of -0.5 for Nino 3.4 and you have a good argument for a cold West this winter.  I suppose the northern part of the East could be cold, but he will certainly bust on calling for a torch in the NW again.  He predicts warm for the West pretty much regardless.  Rather biased IMO.

[OKwx2k4]

I should elaborate a bit about why Joe Bastardi is off base for this winter. For one he has totally misinterpreted the warm SST's anomalies over the GOA to mean the so called blob is continuing. In actuality the warm SST anoms are now arranged in a negative PDO configuration. Couple that with the fact he is underestimating the La Nina as evidenced by the ONI indicating we have already had one tri monthly reading of -0.5 for Nino 3.4 and you have a good argument for a cold West this winter. I suppose the northern part of the East could be cold, but he will certainly bust on calling for a torch in the NW again. He predicts warm for the West pretty much regardless. Rather biased IMO.

No elaboration needed. He's too warm west and too cold too far east. That's enough for me. In a -NAO type winter along with Niña (especially one that oscillates in strength back and forth quite a bit) the NW to S Central and maybe far SE cold temperature profile is the preferred look for winter. I've had -NAO and -AO in my forecast this year since mid to late August and had my core analogs and weights on them since at least that long.

 

The North Pacific Warm Mode or "Blob" or whatever you would like to call it does have some scientific precedent for creating the downstream effects that were created in 2013-14 and 14-15. There are papers online written about it. I discovered them several years ago and while obscure at times are quite interesting to read. I said that to say that the PDO number is not quite nearly as important as the location and strength of the warm pool. I believe 2002-03 was a -PDO but unless you pulled up the daily numbers from that season you would never know it by looking at the SST's up there. The warm pool being much further west than either of the 2 recent analogs used would tell me simply that the location of EPAC ridging should set further west than 2013-15. Again, that's enough for me. Don't really need a PDO or ENSO number for that one. Either way, I agree with you on a lot of points and I disagree on 1 or 2 but they're not strong disagreements. I believe the west gets some cold but I believe that in late winter the core of winter looks like my temp maps I posted last month. In other words, I don't think we will see a sky-high PNA all winter. I think it will be quite variable. The only part of the west that I'm really really sure will be above average will be the desert SW. It's been in every analog I've had and it is just not going away. I've rattled here long enough but felt like your post deserved a good response. We agree on more than we disagree on, that's for sure.

[Tom]

Great discussion.  IMO, the PAC NW will have more winter this year than the previous 2 or 3 winters combined.  If you want to look at the warm NE PAC waters, they are placed a bit off the coast this season so far which Okwx has eluded to.  In result, the trough will most likely be centered farther west than in 2013-14 or 2014-15.  Some cooling has begun off the coast of Washington/Oregon/California which wasn't there before and may lead us to some surprises in the west.

 

Most importantly, the Aleutian Low or the pocket of cooling waters south of the Aleutians, is centered much farther west than in recent years as well.  As the Winter matures, I believe this trough will be backing farther off the NW NAMER coast than it currently is right now and in the near future.   Once the jet strengthens, the feedback will want to place the trough farther west south of the Aleutians.

 

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

 

 

 

I think once the Siberian Air gets entrenched into the N PAC jet stream, the Aleutian Low is going to strengthen farther come November/December and more than likely stay put off shore.  In the month of October, troughs tend to hug the NW NAMER coast as Autumn begins but if you have that warm pool present, it normally wants to feedback and place the troughs farther off the coast later in Winter.  This is just something I have learned and seen happen.  Who knows how it plays out this year but my money is it will be farther west allowing for more fun and games in the PAC NW.

 

Still a lot of time to see how the new LRC sets up and what we can expect.  Nonetheless, an interesting winter is shaping up for parts of the west & central states.  The EC will get their fair share of storms later on in the season, but depending on how long or strong the SE ridge can play a role, and also how strong of a -AO/NAO there will be will ultimately determine the storm track mid/late season.

[snow_wizard]

Thanks guys.  It's nice to see some opinions from people who don't live in the NW.  It gets depressing seeing all of these Eastern mets raining on our parade again.

[Niko]

Any new "Winter Outlooks" out there?! Waiting very anxiously to see a few.

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks guys. It's nice to see some opinions from people who don't live in the NW. It gets depressing seeing all of these Eastern mets raining on our parade again.

No problem. The eastern bias thing does get old, even for a person living in the middle. I live in a state that they only care about for about 3 weeks in late April and May (tornadoes) or in summers when we have our typical every other yearly heatwaves so they can blame global warming. Hang in there. I survived the late 90s and early to mid 2000s here when they actually removed snow days from our state schools because we didn't really need them. Needless to say, we have snow days again statewide. Winter will be back. It always comes back. :-)

[jaster220]

http://www.weatherbell.com/winter-2016-17-forecast

 

..and here I got all excited that they had updated.  That's been out there a while now..

 

Why on Earth would he use 2014-15?  A strong Nino and the tropics in general are the complete opposite this year.  I think he will bust big time this winter.

 

Wasn't last winter (2015-16) the strong Nino?? 2014-15 brought SMI and NOH all-time coldest lows in Feb. KRMY had -23F, old official record lowest was -20F and there was some place in OH that touched -30F which is insane for the Buckeye state!

[jaster220]

 

Tom said:  "Still a lot of time to see how the new LRC sets up and what we can expect.  Nonetheless, an interesting winter is shaping up for parts of the west & central states.  The EC will get their fair share of storms later on in the season, but depending on how long or strong the SE ridge can play a role, and also how strong of a -AO/NAO there will be will ultimately determine the storm track mid/late season."

 

 

I know y'all aren't keying in on '81-82 as a prime analog as that guy from SIN did, but it is interesting to note that winter took a long time to get where I was (SEMI) and then promptly went all the way to the Mid-Atlantic dealing DC the infamous storm in the first week of Jan '82 when the jetliner slid into the Potomac River. They may not be waiting all winter for action if we see anything like that severe winter show it's face.

[Tom]

I came across this Winter Outlook on youtube from another met

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9paNKGFis8

 

 

Some snowy scenes near the Canadian Prairies as a sharp cold front is making its way south towards the U.S./Canadian border!

 

 

[jaster220]

 

First time I'm seeing that wording in the CONUS this autumn. Goes along with Tom's pic's above. Rumors off of AmWx is that the Euro monthlies drop the winter hammer via strong -EPO/-NAO combo..

[jaster220]

I came across this Winter Outlook on youtube from another met

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=k9paNKGFis8

 

 

Some snowy scenes near the Canadian Prairies as a sharp cold front is making its way south towards the U.S./Canadian border!

 

 

 

And not even a leaf on a tree or bush, so this wouldn't seem to be early for that region, eh? Sometimes we get early snowstorms with trees full of leafs in the lwr 48

[jaster220]

These issue dates range from Aug to late Sept but I like where I'm sitting..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

These issue dates range from Aug to late Sept but I like where I'm sitting..

 

 

20160927 Winter 2016-17 Fcast.PNG

 

20160816 Winter 2016-17 Fcast.PNG

 

20160902 Winter 2016-17 Fcast.PNG

The middle image above is probably the most accurate representation of what I believe will happen this winter. I believe the southwest through NE portions of TX into eastern AR could benefit from storms undercutting the warm high over the desert SW this winter in the form of rainfall on the west side of the SE ridge. This pretty much guarantees the Appalachians and Great Lakes to have the type of winter that you see forecast also. Saw some great evidence of that in the new rainfall pattern that occurred over parts of NM and western OK over the last 2 days.

 

Would really have liked to see what zone 16 said on the last one. Lol.

 

I don't know who weather by Jordan is but seems to be a very local bias there. Just my opinion.