Tom Posted August 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 NAM high rez models showing the nocturnal jet firing up a severe line of storms in S WI that bleeds south into N IL later this evening... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016081112/nam4km_ref_frzn_ncus_15.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016081112/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_12.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016081112/namconus_apcpn_ncus_12.png Flood Watches may be extended farther east into WI/IL if trends continue through this afternoon. We need the rain, it's been bone dry here over the last 12 days or so. Only 0.02" of rain officially at ORD. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 The morning outflow pushed way down to the Missouri border. This evening's storms may pop in the Sioux City to Fort Dodge area and head east/south from there. I'm hoping we can get some heating this afternoon. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 11, 2016 Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 A lot of you folks up there are going to catch up in the rain department pretty soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 NAM high rez showing some intense training storms over portions of IA/WI/IL later tonight... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nam4km/2016081118/nam4km_apcpn_ncus_16.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2016081118/namconus_apcpn_ncus_16.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 11, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 11, 2016 Local in-house & RPM models are spitting out some hefty 2-5" rains in N IL through tomorrow evening...that would be welcomed moisture to soak the garden and vegetation. Ground is already starting to get hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 NAM high rez showing some intense training storms over portions of IA/WI/IL later tonight... The training storms ended up right through Cedar Rapids. 3-4 inches has fallen across the city, with up to 4.7" in a couple spots outside the city. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 My overnight rain total is 3.62", and I was even in a relative dry pocket. 5-6 inches fell in a narrow band south of the city. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 The training storms ended up right through Cedar Rapids. 3-4 inches has fallen across the city, with up to 4.7" in a couple spots outside the city.Hoping to get drenching storms later this afternoon. Flash Flood Watches were indeed extended into S WI/N IL last night. Need a good soaker. It was such a warm and humid night last night. The urban heat island effect was in full effect. Heat Index values close to 90F at 3:00am. At this hour, its a balmy 78F with a 71F dewpoint. Atmosphere is primed to produce robust downpours. Meantime, here are the latest JMA Weeklies. Week 1 you can see the cooling coming for the central Plains up towards the western Lakes. Week 2 the trough moves towards the Lakes and generally speaking, near seasonal temps for most of us. Week 3 & 4 the model is seeing blocking over the top developing with a possible anticyclone forming near the desert southwest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Major relief heading towards the central Plains next Fri-Sun according to the Euro...GFS playing catch up... Fri.. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081200/ecmwf_T850a_us_9.png Sat... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081200/ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png Sun... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081200/ecmwf_T850a_us_11.png' Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chances14 Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 We had record moisture levels yesterday for southern Michigan according to DTX. You don't often see heat indexes struggle to get below 80 in the overnight hours can't wait until this humid weather is gone for good this year Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 12z GFS now advertising a wound up Great Lakes early Autumn like storm next weekend. Unfortunately, this is the weekend of the Air and Water Show. If trends continue, might have to attend the Friday practice runs instead. 998mb SLP... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081212/gfs_mslp_wind_ncus_37.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081212/gfs_T2m_ncus_38.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081212/gfs_T2m_ncus_41.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 It's official, Arctic mean temps have gone subfreezing (0C)...they may start free falling if EPS/GEFS are right Day 5-10. http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2016 Wow, I'm just mind blown if this comes to fruition. I just did some calculations and here we are, nearly 317 days since October 1st when our 2016-17 LRC cycle began and the main features of each cycle are showing up for next weekend. Let's see how this unfolds. Remember the GHD storm??? Well, well, well...the GFS in back to back runs is trying to spin up this storm system in nearly the same position/track as it did back in early Feb! Pretty amazing how it's still being advertised for next weekend. Lets see if the GFS is right and the EURO will play catch up. I, personally, am very interested to see if this storm system forms or not. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_33.png http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016081218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_us_36.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 13, 2016 Report Share Posted August 13, 2016 Lots of great stuff posted since I last checked here today. Looks like an early arctic freeze this year. I wonder how quickly we'll see the annual ice minimum up there this year. A powerhouse great Lakes storm in mid August is definitely something to take note of. So is seeing the trailing low and big associated trough. Lastly, no more upper 90s for me for awhile. Mid 80s for highs the next week or so. Looks like I survived the Oklahoma torch for one more summer. :-) 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2016 Nice doughnut hole right over my area in NE IL...torrential rains in the S/SW burbs last night caused some major flooding as training storms pummeled the area. The state fair got called off early as flooding occured and cars/trailers were under feet of water. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted August 13, 2016 Report Share Posted August 13, 2016 That flooded parking lot full of pickups and RVs is going to be very costly. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2016 That flooded parking lot full of pickups and RVs is going to be very costly.That was the first thing I thought of when I saw it on the news last night. Insurance claims up the Wazooo! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 13, 2016 Report Share Posted August 13, 2016 That's some impressive rainfall! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2016 Both GFS/EURO are dialing up some pretty impressive negative departures next weekend! http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081312/ecmwf_T850a_us_8.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081312/ecmwf_T850a_us_9.pnghttp://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016081312/ecmwf_T850a_us_10.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 13, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 13, 2016 Nice pool of "cool" in the west/central states over the next 2 weeks... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif CPC thinking it continues Week 3-4...interesting... http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder98 Posted August 13, 2016 Report Share Posted August 13, 2016 Eau Claire, WI got 2.56" on Thursday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 13, 2016 Report Share Posted August 13, 2016 Yes sir Tom! Such pretty blue colors on those maps! Maybe no more 90s for me at all! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 15, 2016 Report Share Posted August 15, 2016 Sunny and a high of 81 today with low humidity. Best day since late May for me today. Already down to 72. Love it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 15, 2016 Report Share Posted August 15, 2016 Not even going to get warmer than 84 here for an entire week. Just can't get much better for August in my opinion. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 15, 2016 Not even going to get warmer than 84 here for an entire week. Just can't get much better for August in my opinion.Looks like a few days of upper 80's and storms later this week, but this weekend and possibly the entire week the following week will stay in the 70's! A taste of perfection looks to be in store for a long stretch. Both GEFS/EPS are showing a highly amplified N.A. pattern starting this weekend and through the extended. CFSv2 sniffed this out a couple weeks ago. Surprisingly, it is showing this pattern continuing into the early part of September. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk1.wk2_latest.NAsfcT.gif http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfcT.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 15, 2016 Over the past 7-10 days, the western Pacific has been active and will continue over the next 2 weeks. Check out how much the waters have cooled off near Japan. You can almost see the track in which these tropical systems took.http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta7diff_wpac_1.png Notice how massive the blob of warm waters in the N PAC have expanded and the tongue of colder waters to the south that stretch from Asia to the west coast of Cali. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png I find this interesting, the CFS model is sniffing out some snows to fall in late August/early Sept near Siberia as a trough tries to place itself in that region. http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/cfs/2016/08/15/basis00/noas/weas/16090100_1500.gif 00z EPS Day 10... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf-ens/2016081500/ecmwf-ens_z500a_fe_11.png GEFS day 12... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016081500/gfs-ens_z500a_fe_51.png Day 15... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2016081500/gfs-ens_z500a_fe_65.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 15, 2016 Report Share Posted August 15, 2016 Had a bunch of heavy training storms about 1am Saturday morning and now we're under a Flood Watch for 3 more inches. With a little roof issue, I didn't need this to flip so hard here in August. Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 15, 2016 Had a bunch of heavy training storms about 1am Saturday morning and now we're under a Flood Watch for 3 more inches. With a little roof issue, I didn't need this to flip so hard here in August. Looks like your in the prime spot to get some heavy rains...hope I can somehow squeeze some precip outta this. My area didn't get much from last weeks event. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016081514/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 15, 2016 Report Share Posted August 15, 2016 Looks like your in the prime spot to get some heavy rains...hope I can somehow squeeze some precip outta this. My area didn't get much from last weeks event. http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016081514/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_15.png My how the tables have turned since June, eh? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 15, 2016 The system that is tracking up towards the lower lakes almost has a defo band look to it. N IN/S MI in the sweet spot with this... http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hrrr/2016081520/hrrr_apcpn_ncus_15.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 15, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 15, 2016 Arctic temps free falling, similar to what they did back in 2013, although slightly behind the pace back then. We'll see how much colder it gets from here. Taking a look at the extended, the pattern is favorable for much below normal temps over the next 10-15 days. Current... http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2016.png 2013... http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2013.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Well over 2.5" fell at my place and some of the heaviest squalls were hitting as I was heading out this morning. This feels more like a remnant hurricane with the winds and strati-form style rains. We are more than saturated now. The red flood warning icon will hopefully return as a red WSW headline with a winter repeat. Actually, this system reminded me a bit of the December 28th sleet system tbh. 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 I'm liking where the pattern is heading to close out the month of August. Finally, just finally we may have a stretch of temps in the 70's and very cool nights! Signs pointing on the CFSv2 that we may have a cool/chilly Labor Day weekend. Would fit the LRC and main feature of our cyclical pattern. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/weekly/images/wk3.wk4_20160815.NAsfcT.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 The month so far has been near normal for the bread basket of the nation. Wonder how much these positive departures will be erased as we close out the month of August...especially for those near the Lakes/OV region. EPS/GEFS show dramatic cooling Week 1-2. http://www.hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted August 16, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Interesting to see the CFSv2 trending for a cooler September...JB's endless summer forecast may not pan out as hoped...this summer season's transition out of a strong Nino hasn't panned out as previous strong Nino's of the past. The LRC was a great tool. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201609.gif Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 My general thinking at the moment is for a continuation of cooler conditions through mid-september with a rebound in temperatures relative to average late September and throughout most of October. I know there's no guidance out yet that supports this but just my 2 cents worth. The rest of this month looks AMAZING for August. Especially down here as far as me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 72/51 forecast for my area this next Monday. I like that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 Love this time of year as we head toward autumn and daylight starts getting less and the cooler weather sets in. Leaves start changing. The smell of bonfires in the neighborhood. Looking forward to fall and seeing how the new pattern sets up. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted August 16, 2016 Report Share Posted August 16, 2016 How's that storm looking for this weekend and the cool shot? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKwx2k4 Posted August 17, 2016 Report Share Posted August 17, 2016 The cool shot is still looking very impressive. Idk about the storm. Looks like good rains for our entire region though over the next 7 days. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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