Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 They just missed it, they have hit 89 a bunch of times already this year. Portland and Salem officially hit 89. Eugene and Troutdale hit 90 and Hillsboro hit 91.Score!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Definitely liking the 06z ensembles:Â 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 We were driving through the desert areas SE of Cache Creek around 1am this morning and stopped to view the meteors. Pretty amazing view with clear skies, no light pollution, no trees, and no mountains too close to block your view. Probably could see 4-5 per minute at times. Even as we were driving we could notice them falling in front of us. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 We were driving through the desert areas SE of Cache Creek around 1am this morning and stopped to view the meteors. Pretty amazing view with clear skies, no light pollution, no trees, and no mountains too close to block your view. Probably could see 4-5 per minute at times. Even as we were driving we could notice them falling in front of us. That sounds awesome. We are heading up towards Mount Adams tonight to do some viewing. It is pretty dark up there, although I'm not sure if it would be quite as dark as Interior BC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Sun angle and low level cold played a huge part in how those events unfolded, actually. Otherwise, from a strictly upper level standpoint, there have been several very comparable March airmasses to those in the airport era that produced -10c and even -15c or lower 850mb temps over the lowlands. 1955, 1976, and 1989 to name a few.  Sun angle, or basically day time heating potential, yes. But the peak of those events, including Nov 2010 where SEA saw a high of 25 or 1985 where BLI saw a high of 15, had nothing to do with low level inversions. Those were well-mixed air masses. And we've seen nothing close in March for a long time. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Most of next week has trended disturbingly cooler in recent runs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Sun angle, or basically day time heating potential, yes. But the peak of those events, including Nov 2010 where SEA saw a high of 25 or 1985 where BLI saw a high of 15, had nothing to do with low level inversions. Those were well-mixed air masses. And we've seen nothing close in March for a long time. I wouldn't agree, 1985 in particular was still very low level influenced for places like Portland.  http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us1129.php The 850mb temps down here bottomed out around -11c that month. We've seen similarly cold airmasses several times in March in the airport era. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Most of next week has trended disturbingly cooler in recent runs. Monday through Saturday still look like wall to wall 85+ with a couple of 95ish days thrown in for good measure. Looks like the peak of our summer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Monday through Saturday still look like wall to wall 85+ with a couple of 95ish days thrown in for good measure. Looks like the peak of our summer.Perhaps. MOS guidance now has PDX in the low 80s Sunday-Wednesday. And they are usually no more than a few degrees off. Late next week is still pretty up in the air. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 I wouldn't agree, 1985 in particular was still very low level influenced for places like Portland.  http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us1129.php The 850mb temps down here bottomed out around -11c that month. We've seen similarly cold airmasses several times in March in the airport era. I'm looking at the region overall, not just Portland.  Yes, there were parts of 1985 that were mainly low level cold. But when you look at the overall air masses of 2010, 1985, 1955, hell even 2006 up north, there hasn't been anything close in March for a long time. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Most of next week has trended disturbingly cooler in recent runs.What were you expecting? Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Something like this, of course. Â Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Something like this, of course.  image.pngGotta start thinking on your own, my man. Especially with climo lying on the ground outside the window in a thousand pieces. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Gotta start thinking on your own, my man. Especially with climo lying on the ground outside the window in a thousand pieces. I was being a bit sarcastic. I've been thinking his forecast for next week has been running too warm for a few days now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016  I was being a bit sarcastic. I've been thinking his forecast for next week has been running too warm for a few days now.He already tanked this morning's low... Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 He already tanked this morning's low... He does really well in the short term, generally skews a little warm past days 3-4. It is pretty consistent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 He does really well in the short term, generally skews a little warm past days 3-4. It is pretty consistent.Run the #'s. This is gonna be a lot of work. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Run the #'s. This is gonna be a lot of work. Can't access old 7-days unless you save or screen shot them. I guess I could for the one I just posted. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 12z GFS likes the retrogression idea in the long range. FWIW, looks exactly like pattern analogs for Niña backgrounds w/ deamplifying WPAC forcing under weakening MJO dominance in face of lowfreq assertion. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Can't access old 7-days unless you save or screen shot them. I guess I could for the one I just posted.Perhaps a strongly-worded letter to the station manager at KPTV is in order. Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 I'm looking at the region overall, not just Portland.  Yes, there were parts of 1985 that were mainly low level cold. But when you look at the overall air masses of 2010, 1985, 1955, hell even 2006 up north, there hasn't been anything close in March for a long time. Like I said, 1989, 1976, and 1955 were all fairly comparable March airmasses that dropped 850mb temps below -10c over western WA and OR. You also have 1971, 1960, and late March 1954.  November 1955 was a true freak of nature, but otherwise UIL's coldest March airmasses are very in line with their coldest November airmasses http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/soo/T850/low50-T850.pdf Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Perhaps a strongly-worded letter to the station manager at KPTV is in order. Don't care that much.  It is what it is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Loving the trends for the last 1/3 of the month: If the ensemble mean is close to accurate we are at our peak at 850mb today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Don't care that much.  It is what it is.I suspect it's a subjective perception issue. He's still the most aggressive forecaster of any when it comes to the long range. There just aren't typically that many opportunities to go sexy cold these days. I still remember December 2008 when he had the week of the 14th entirely in the 20's. Sure looked sexy, but it sure didn't verify. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 I suspect it's a subjective perception issue. He's still the most aggressive forecaster of any when it comes to the long range. There just aren't typically that many opportunities to go sexy cold these days. I still remember December 2008 when he had the week of the 14th entirely in the 20's. Sure looked sexy, but it sure didn't verify. Good points here. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 12, 2016 Author Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Special Wx statement out for Western Washington today.   SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA338 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2016WAZ001-503-504-506-507-509>517-555-556-558-559-567>569-122300-SAN JUAN COUNTY-WESTERN WHATCOM COUNTY-SOUTHWEST INTERIOR-WESTERN SKAGIT COUNTY-EVERETT AND VICINITY-TACOMA AREA-ADMIRALTY INLET AREA-HOOD CANAL AREA-LOWER CHEHALIS VALLEY AREA-OLYMPICS-EASTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-WESTERN STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA-NORTH COAST-CENTRAL COAST-EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS-BELLEVUE AND VICINITY-SEATTLE AND VICINITY-BREMERTON AND VICINITY-CASCADES OF WHATCOM AND SKAGIT COUNTIES-CASCADES OF SNOHOMISH AND KING COUNTIES-CASCADES OF PIERCE AND LEWIS COUNTIES-338 AM PDT FRI AUG 12 2016...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERNWASHINGTON TODAY AND SATURDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILLPROVIDE SUNNY SKIES AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY ANDSATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80SACROSS MOST INTERIOR LOWLANDS...AND NEAR 90 IN THE SOUTHWESTINTERIOR. TODAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY AT THE COAST WHEREHIGHS COULD REACH THE LOW 80S. TYPICALLY COOLER AREAS NEAR THEWATERS OF THE NORTH INTERIOR AND STRAIT OF JUAN DE FUCA WILL TOPOUT IN THE UPPER 70S.ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY WITH COOLER HIGHTEMPERATURES ONLY REACHING THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. HOWEVER...ITWILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY INLAND WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REACHINGINTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...EXCEPT LOWER 90S POSSIBLE OVER THESOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND EAST PUGET SOUND LOWLANDS. AREAS NEAR THEWATER NORTH OF EVERETT WILL AGAIN STAY COOLER IN THE UPPER 70S.IT WILL ALSO BE QUITE WARM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND PASSES WITHHIGHS ALSO IN THE 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES DURINGTHE PERIOD WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY MID TOUPPER 50S...EXCEPT LOWER 60S IN THE SEATTLE METRO AREA.THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES MAY TEMPT INDIVIDUALS TO GO ONTO THEAREA WATERWAYS. PLEASE BE AWARE THAT THE RIVERS AND WATERS ARESTILL COLD. DEATHS DURING WARM SPELLS ACROSS THE PACIFICNORTHWEST OFTEN OCCUR FROM DROWNING DUE TO THE COLD WATER.THE ELDERLY...AND THOSE WITH EXISTING HEALTH CONCERNS...SHOULDREMAIN HYDRATED AND ATTEMPT TO STAY IN A COOL PLACE DURING THEHEAT OF THE DAY.   Already at 76° here. Dew point at 63° is making it feel a little bit sticky. Quote Mercer Island, 350 ft 2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21 2020-2021: 15.6" 2019-2020: ~10" 2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5" 2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Pretty epic retrogression on the 12Z EURO. Would love to see that verify. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Like I said, 1989, 1976, and 1955 were all fairly comparable March airmasses that dropped 850mb temps below -10c over western WA and OR. You also have 1971, 1960, and late March 1954.  November 1955 was a true freak of nature, but otherwise UIL's coldest March airmasses are very in line with their coldest November airmasses http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/unr/soo/T850/low50-T850.pdf You're focusing on 850s now. I was simply responding to your assertion that the November air masses were colder on the ground due to inversions. Sun angle/longer days yes, inversions not so much. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Pretty epic retrogression on the 12Z EURO. Would love to see that verify. Yeah, it's a little warmer over the next week, but then big-time crash later on. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 You're focusing on 850s now. I was simply responding to your assertion that the November air masses were colder on the ground due to inversions. Sun angle/longer days yes, inversions not so much.  Eh? The dynamics behind our inversion season literally go hand in hand with sun angle. You can't have one  aspect without the other.  Our inversion season runs from roughly October 20 to February 20, when the sun angle is -10 degrees or lower over Portland. November is entering the heart of that season, again, due to sun angle. The sun isn't strong enough to mix out the air. It's just that simple, and it will have a noticeable impact on our weather after a cold front. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Eh? The dynamics behind our inversion season literally go hand in hand with sun angle. You can't have one  aspect without the other.  Our inversion season runs from roughly October 20 to February 20, when the sun angle is -10 degrees or lower over Portland. November is entering the heart of that season, again, due to sun angle. The sun isn't strong enough to mix out the air. It's just that simple, and it will have a noticeable impact on our weather after a cold front. Again, the coldest parts of the Nov 1955, 1985 and 2010 events were well-mixed. There weren't inversions. Shorter days does mean a smaller opportunity for day-time heating, and that has an effect everywhere. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Maybe Tim is onto something w/ the Canadian picking up on pattern changes before other guidance. If the retrogression does occur (as I'm expecting it to), yesterday's 12z Canadian was once again the first to sniff it out, similar to how it sniffed out the slow ULL. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Maybe Tim is onto something w/ the Canadian picking up on pattern changes before other guidance. If the retrogression does occur (as I'm expecting it to), yesterday's 12z Canadian was once again the first to sniff it out, similar to how it sniffed out the slow ULL. I think both the Canadian and EURO will take turns doing that. The GFS, less so. It's mainly a follower model these days it seems. One reason I look at the GFS ensembles just as much if not more than the operational. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Again, the coldest parts of the Nov 1955, 1985 and 2010 events were well-mixed. There weren't inversions. Shorter days does mean a smaller opportunity for day-time heating, and that has an effect everywhere. That's only true for 2010. That was a quick-hitter. 1985 and 1955 both had healthy low level inversions develop after the initial CAA. Which wouldn't have been possible a few months later.  And those were all incredibly anomalous events from a regional perspective, akin to something like March 1906 or March 1960 if you're looking at the opposing end of the season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 That's only true for 2010. That was a quick-hitter. 1985 and 1955 both had healthy low level inversions develop after the initial CAA. Which wouldn't have been possible a few months later.  And those were all incredibly anomalous events from a regional perspective, akin to something like March 1906 or March 1960 if you're looking at the opposing end of the season.  So the day BLI saw a high of 15 in Nov 1985 was due to an inversion? OLM's 24/12 day on 11/12/55? Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 So the day BLI saw a high of 15 in Nov 1985 was due to an inversion? OLM's 24/12 day on 11/12/55? The 1955 event was low level based by the 15th or so. And there was clearly a low level cold pool developing by this point in the 1985 event, followed by an upper level reload which was in fact a more low level seepage oriented event.  http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us1124.php It's entirely inaccurate to say that neither event featured inversions or low level cold pools develop. As I said before, a few months later that type of progression would not have been possible. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 So the day BLI saw a high of 15 in Nov 1985 was due to an inversion? OLM's 24/12 day on 11/12/55?A great deal of 1985's greatness was outflow related, disproportionate to the amount of upper level cold. It's pretty established this is a dynamic which is directly related to inversion season. 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 The 12Z EURO ensembles look cooler overall than even the operational from the middle of next week onward. This feels very similar to what happened in late July. Hopefully persistent offshore ridging keeps being a prominent pattern driver like this through the Fall and Winter. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 Pretty epic retrogression on the 12Z EURO. Would love to see that verify.Retrogressions can only be epic in the winter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted August 12, 2016 Report Share Posted August 12, 2016 The 1955 event was low level based by the 15th or so. And there was clearly a low level cold pool developing by this point in the 1985 event, followed by an upper level reload which was in fact a more low level seepage oriented event. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1985/us1124.php It's entirely inaccurate to say that neither event featured inversions or low level cold pools develop. As I said before, a few months later that type of progression would not have been possible.I didn't say neither event featured low level inversions. You must have misunderstood. I was talking about the peaks of those events, the coldest days, ie those days I referenced in each event. And you avoided my question about those particular days.  March hasn't produced anything like those well-mixed days in a very long time. And I just don't think there's any easy explanation for why the early cold season (Nov-Dec) has produced much more impressive air masses relative to average than later in the cold season (Jan-Mar). It's a well documented phenomenon for the past several decades. Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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