August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Deweydog]

Good. Hoping for 50s tonight.

Go climb a mountain.

[Jesse]

Go climb a mountain.

Too much mixing.

[Deweydog]

Too much mixing.

NB I-5 to exit 101. Turn right.

[Jesse]

NB I-5 to exit 101. Turn right.

I-5 south to exit 194 might be closer for me.

[Deweydog]

I-5 south to exit 194 might be closer for me.

Or you could just stay home.

[Jesse]

Or you could just stay home.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I-5 south to exit 194 might be closer for me.

 

Take that exit all the time...

[Deweydog]

More model craziness with the newly-minted 00z GFS! I'm getting motion sickness with these ups and downs!

[Jesse]

More model craziness with the newly-minted 00z GFS! I'm getting motion sickness with these ups and downs!

 

Sarcasm, I'm assuming.

[Deweydog]

Sarcasm, I'm assuming.

It's a tad warmer for Sunday.

[Jesse]

It's a tad warmer for Sunday.

 

Everything's coming up Dewey!

[ShawniganLake]

It's a tad warmer for Sunday.

That fender bender is looking more like just a close call. Maybe just some jackass that doesn't know how to merge.

[Deweydog]

Everything's coming up Dewey!

Summer suckity suck sucks!!!

[Jesse]

Summer suckity suck sucks!!!

 

Yup. Only my second favorite season overall.

[Deweydog]

Yup. Only my second favorite season overall.

I love them all. Each special in their own way and associated with different enjoyable aspects of life and ornery subjectivity.

[Jesse]

I love them all. Each special in their own way and associated with different enjoyable aspects of life and ornery subjectivity.

 

I'm mostly on the same page. There are things I like about all of them, and they are all pretty close. Fall is easily my favorite, followed by summer, winter, spring. But that isn't to say I dislike spring by any means. 

[Deweydog]

I'm mostly on the same page. There are things I like about all of them, and they are all pretty close. Fall is easily my favorite, followed by summer, winter, spring. But that isn't to say I dislike spring by any means.

I enjoy temperatures and various forms of precipitation. Can't go wrong with all of the above.

[Jesse]

I enjoy temperatures and various forms of precipitation. Can't go wrong with all of the above.

 

You forgot wind speed.

[Jesse]

00Z GFS gets a little more retrogressy in the long range.

[Deweydog]

You forgot wind speed.

I'll take some of that too!

[Deweydog]

00Z GFS gets a little more retrogressy in the long range.

I don't know how you could possibly even look beyond seven days at this point considering how wildly erratic things are in the mid range!

[Jesse]

I don't know how you could possibly even look beyond seven days at this point considering how wildly erratic things are in the mid range!

Looking at models is good sport. Hopefully Richard returns with an outlook at some point so you can feel included.

[Deweydog]

Looking at models is good sport. Hopefully Richard returns with an outlook at some point so you can feel included.

Flying blind. All I know is we have lots marine layer days coming up.

[Jesse]

Flying blind. All I know is we have lots marine layer days coming up.

 

95% of our summer days are marine layer days!! God!!!

[Deweydog]

95% of our summer days are marine layer days!! God!!!

Just gotta play the odds at this point. The models are clearly clueless about the upcoming pattern complexities.

[snow_wizard]

It will be interesting to see how much effect any marine pushes over the next week will have on the temps. We are never really dominated by a huge ridge with heights mostly remaining below 588. Looks like a possible intrusion of coolish continental air around day 10. The ECMWF has hinted at it also.

[Jesse]

Just gotta play the odds at this point. The models are clearly clueless about the upcoming pattern complexities.

 

Pinpointing the (movement), more longitudinal, of main cold airmass will hopefully shed some light on this, looked at more broadly.

[Jesse]

It will be interesting to see how much effect any marine pushes over the next week will have on the temps. We are never really dominated by a huge ridge with heights mostly remaining below 588. Looks like a possible intrusion of coolish continental air around day 10. The ECMWF has hinted at it also.

 

00Z GFS ensembles are improved as well. There are actually quite a few cool members showing up around days 8-9.

[snow_wizard]

00Z GFS ensembles are improved as well. There are actually quite a few cool members showing up around days 8-9.

It is interesting how there isn't any sign of a death ridge. The highest heights are mainly over the NE Pacific and NW Atlantic with modest heights over most of the country. Different than the nastiness we saw last summer.

[Geos]

Made it t 74° here today at like 5pm when the sun came out finally. Looking forward to more sun, but not the heat really. Looks like 90° on Saturday.

 

Had a sunset tonight this time.

 

[James Jones]

I think Blizzard must have fainted at the sight of the 00z Euro.

[ShawniganLake]

Next week looking very toasty on the Euro. Friday and Saturday may just be priming the pattern for a re-load next week. I always read about potential "reloads" of arctic air in the winter, but never about heat in the summer. Seems like a good time to use the term.

[Geos]

Next week looking very toasty on the Euro. Friday and Saturday may just be priming the pattern for a re-load next week. I always read about potential "reloads" of arctic air in the winter, but never about heat in the summer. Seems like a good time to use the term.

 

Even hotter than the end of this week?

[ShawniganLake]

I think Blizzard must have fainted at the sight of the 00z Euro.

I have a feeling a few people may have puked as well.

[ShawniganLake]

Even hotter than the end of this week?

Yes. I am not the best at forecasting for down that way, but next week is much hotter on the Euro up this way. Like probably 6-8F higher.

[Geos]

Yes. I am not the best at forecasting for down that way, but next week is much hotter on the Euro up this way. Like probably 6-8F higher.

 

Yeah no kidding...

 

 

vs.

 

 

That could mean mid 90s if winds are offshore.

[Jesse]

Next week looking very toasty on the Euro. Friday and Saturday may just be priming the pattern for a re-load next week. I always read about potential "reloads" of arctic air in the winter, but never about heat in the summer. Seems like a good time to use the term.

This forum is just one giant massive cold conspiracy. You've finally figured it out. Now you must either take the blue pill, or the red pill. The choice is yours.

[Jesse]

That would be a historic heat pattern at the end of the Euro. That typhoon must have recurved pretty hard!

[ShawniganLake]

That would be a historic heat pattern at the end of the Euro. That typhoon must have recurved pretty hard!

That was a good one. Lol.

[Jesse]

Looks like the 00z Euro was an outlier, fortunately.