August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[Geos]

The summer without a summer marches on. I can already feel the warm September taking shape to make up for all this.

 

It's a lot of up and down lately. Are September's going into a first year la Niña usually warm and dry?

[Jesse]

It's a lot of up and down lately. Are September's going into a first year la Niña usually warm and dry?

I've never really been able to get a feel for what constitutes a strong September signal around here. I think most atmospheric circulation states favor warm and dry, though.

[Jesse]

At least the 12z GFS was more reasonable in the long range.

[Geos]

Clouds are showing signs of breaking up some to the south and west. They'll probably hang around for the most part today though.

 

[IbrChris]

After some fairly cool (or maybe normal?) mid-summer weather a brief warmup is on tap for late this week into the first half of the weekend. PDX looks to make a run at 90+ Friday and Saturday...perhaps Thursday as well. Sharp cooldown by Sunday with a decent marine push on models for late Saturday. Near normal next week (either side of 80) but potential exists for another warm period as we get into the 11-15 day timeframe. GFS/Euro ensemble mean suggests a few days in the upper 80s to near 90 which is a solid warm signal that far out.

[TT-SEA]

Love the 12Z ECMWF... perfect.

[Front Ranger]

After some fairly cool (or maybe normal?) mid-summer weather a brief warmup is on tap for late this week into the first half of the weekend. PDX looks to make a run at 90+ Friday and Saturday...perhaps Thursday as well. Sharp cooldown by Sunday with a decent marine push on models for late Saturday. Near normal next week (either side of 80) but potential exists for another warm period as we get into the 11-15 day timeframe. GFS/Euro ensemble mean suggests a few days in the upper 80s to near 90 which is a solid warm signal that far out.

 

Definitely cool. Monthly departures to date, and these will drop more after today and tomorrow. The western lowlands overall should be between -2 and -4 through the 10th.

 

SEA: -1.5

OLM: -2.7

PDX: -1.8

EUG: -1.6

[TT-SEA]

Definitely cool. Monthly departures to date, and these will drop more after today and tomorrow. The western lowlands overall should be between -2 and -4 through the 10th.

 

SEA: -1.5

OLM: -2.7

PDX: -1.8

EUG: -1.6

Its early yet.

[Front Ranger]

Its early yet.

Obviously. Look at the context of the post.

 

Regardless of how the rest of the month plays out, it's been a notably cool period, coolest of the summer to date. Coolest 10 day summer period in some time.

[Phil]

My Dad (who lives in Sarasota, FL) has been up in Everett, WA since Saturday w/ family. He just called the mid-60s weather "heavenly".

 

So again, the complaining is hilarious and literally is comparable to Florida people whining about cold.

[TT-SEA]

My Dad (who lives in Sarasota, FL) has been up in Everett, WA since Saturday w/ family. He just called the mid-60s weather "heavenly".

So again, the complaining is hilarious and literally is comparable to Florida people whining about cold.

[FroYoBro]

The Portland are is finally getting some decent rain today. Of course it had to happen on my birthday. 

[TT-SEA]

Obviously. Look at the context of the post.

Regardless of how the rest of the month plays out, it's been a notably cool period, coolest of the summer to date. Coolest 10 day summer period in some time.

Absolutely.

[James Jones]

Despite the persistent troughing this summer, PDX hasn't had a high in the 60s since June 24. Looks like that's going to change today.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty disappointing model trends today. We could easily end up above normal for the month if it verifies. Maybe a below normal August is impossible this century. That having been said sudden model changes like this are often unreliable.

[snow_wizard]

My Dad (who lives in Sarasota, FL) has been up in Everett, WA since Saturday w/ family. He just called the mid-60s weather "heavenly".

 

So again, the complaining is hilarious and literally is comparable to Florida people whining about cold.

I agree. Cool weather in the summer is very refreshing.

[TT-SEA]

My Dad (who lives in Sarasota, FL) has been up in Everett, WA since Saturday w/ family. He just called the mid-60s weather "heavenly".

So again, the complaining is hilarious and literally is comparable to Florida people whining about cold.

Also have to put it in context. We have 40s and 50s with clouds and rain for much of the year. When you live in Florida it's a novelty. So to say we should be happy about our summer weather being just slightly above our winter weather is just as stupid.

[Kayla]

For those that track these types of stats, it would appear that PDX will break a couple of really weak records today. Record low max for today is 68º and the daily rainfall total record is only 0.08" for the day. 

 

PDX high for the day so far is 64º with a rainfall amount of 0.08"

[Geos]

Up to 67° with some sun. Been some pretty good showers over the Stevens Pass area for several hours.

[ShawniganLake]

Up to 67° with some sun. Been some pretty good showers over the Stevens Pass area for several hours.

Was up to 73F here earlier, but the clouds have started to thicken and temps have cooled slightly. Just 0.01" of rain from this ULL so far here.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like SEA is up to 72 with a fair amount of sunshine now. A decent enough afternoon it appears.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For those that track these types of stats, it would appear that PDX will break a couple of really weak records today. Record low max for today is 68º and the daily rainfall total record is only 0.08" for the day. 

 

PDX high for the day so far is 64º with a rainfall amount of 0.08"

 

Up to 68 now. Probably a high around 70. 

[Kayla]

Up to 68 now. Probably a high around 70. 

 

Looks like they topped off at 69º. Missed the record by a degree but still coolest day since the end of June.

 

At least with another small rain band moving in the rainfall record should fall.

[TT-SEA]

SEA did manage 72 today.

[TT-SEA]

Correction... SEA managed 73.     Evening high.  

 

Not bad considering the ULL in place.

[epiceast]

Big storm rolling through here!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Was up to 73F here earlier, but the clouds have started to thicken and temps have cooled slightly. Just 0.01" of rain from this ULL so far here.

 

Hit about 72F here in Vic today and the relative warmth has carried right through the evening as the cloud deck hit just prior to sunset. Could make for a warm night but I'm hoping we can at least pick up a few showers before the morning. We've been in close proximity to the ULL for the past 3~4 days and haven't got so much as a drop of rain to show for it; feels like a waste. A lot of the local trees are looking stressed and quickly losing leaves, not so different from last summer even if it is running cooler. 

[Jesse]

The 12z Euro really wasn't too bad. Paradise compared to the last two Augusts.

[Deweydog]

-2 at Olympia today???

 

-2????????

 

Embarrassing.

[snow_wizard]

I would love to see the pattern it would take to get SEA to have a well below normal day this summer. This entire summer the pattern has been akin to needing a shotgun to hit the broad side of a barn. I have seen lesser anomalous patterns yield better minuses. Kind of frustrating.

[snow_wizard]

Hit about 72F here in Vic today and the relative warmth has carried right through the evening as the cloud deck hit just prior to sunset. Could make for a warm night but I'm hoping we can at least pick up a few showers before the morning. We've been in close proximity to the ULL for the past 3~4 days and haven't got so much as a drop of rain to show for it; feels like a waste. A lot of the local trees are looking stressed and quickly losing leaves, not so different from last summer even if it is running cooler.

Much greener here this summer than last.

[TT-SEA]

I would love to see the pattern it would take to get SEA to have a well below normal day this summer. This entire summer the pattern has been akin to needing a shotgun to hit the broad side of a barn. I have seen lesser anomalous patterns yield better minuses. Kind of frustrating.

 

 

I thought you liked snow?   It can't snow right now.  Don't worry about it.  Whether it was 68 or 73 at SEA today has no bearing on whether it snows in January.  

[TT-SEA]

The 12z Euro really wasn't too bad. Paradise compared to the last two Augusts.

 

 

SEA had 9 days below normal last August and 3.28 inches of rain.     

[TT-SEA]

Hit about 72F here in Vic today and the relative warmth has carried right through the evening as the cloud deck hit just prior to sunset. Could make for a warm night but I'm hoping we can at least pick up a few showers before the morning. We've been in close proximity to the ULL for the past 3~4 days and haven't got so much as a drop of rain to show for it; feels like a waste. A lot of the local trees are looking stressed and quickly losing leaves, not so different from last summer even if it is running cooler. 

 

 

I see trees that are dead from last summer... but its very green in our area as well  

[Geos]

Was up to 73F here earlier, but the clouds have started to thicken and temps have cooled slightly. Just 0.01" of rain from this ULL so far here.

 

Temp managed to peak at 71°. Spiked up briefly around 4:30 when the sun came out for a bit. 0.01" of rain today with a grand total of 0.14" from this system.

[snow_wizard]

I thought you liked snow?   It can't snow right now.  Don't worry about.   Whether it was 68 or 73 at SEA today has no bearing on whether it snows in January.

I think our inability to come up with a below normal August this century is all related to our inability to get a cold January. We are stuck in a rut. This month could still pull it out, but it's looking less likely.

 

SEA should have easily pulled three consecutive days in the -6 to -9 bracket out of this ULL and it didn't come close.

[TT-SEA]

I think our inability to come up with a below normal August this century is all related to our inability to get a cold January. We are stuck in a rut. This month could still pull it out, but it's looking less likely.

 

SEA should have easily pulled three consecutive days in the -6 to -9 bracket out of this ULL and it didn't come close.

 

 

I don't think they are related at all.    And January could still end up snowy and cold.

[Deweydog]

We're screwed.

[TT-SEA]

Looks like the models are finally figuring out the tropical systems...and hence the change for the weekend and next week locally.

[TT-SEA]

Side note... tomorrow looks like a solid marine layer day.    More than today which benefited from the ULL being overhead.   So tomorrow will be cooler in Seattle.