August 2016 Observations and Model Discussion for the Pacific Northwest

[ShawniganLake]

For what west side location are you seeing mid-90s forecast?

GFS has PDX 94 Thursday, 97 Friday, 94 Saturday. 

[TT-SEA]

Seattle looks socked in good... going to be a cool day there regardless of any clearing now.

 

Looks sunny at our house though.  

[Jesse]

GFS has PDX 94 Thursday, 97 Friday, 94 Saturday. 

 

Are you talking about raw model output, like on the numerical charts? WRF or MOS are usually a better way to go.

[Phil]

GFS has PDX 94 Thursday, 97 Friday, 94 Saturday.

Well, remember the GFS has an exaggerated diurnal temperature cycle, sometimes by 5-8+ degrees. I'd go with MOS guidance in this case, over both the WRF & the raw/untuned model output.

 

Plus the ECMWF/EPS, CMC, and GEFS are much cooler.

[Jesse]

 

In other news I was taking a look at the temperatures up in Sandspit and they are running well above average up that way; The overnight lows particularly standout.

 

Is that up on Haida Gwaii? Doesn't surprise me too much. Seems like warm anomalies have increased moving north this summer.

[ShawniganLake]

Are you talking about raw model output, like on the numerical charts? WRF or MOS are usually a better way to go.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/wrfrt/data/timeindep/images_d2/wa_tsfc.132.0000.gif

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Is that up on Haida Gwaii? Doesn't surprise me too much.

 

Yep. It makes sense with all the cutoff lows we've seen over our region and warmer coastal waters up there.

[Jesse]

Might have to make a forecast contest for next week, since the heat lovers are feeling so confident.

[Jesse]

 

 

MOS shows PDX peaking in the upper 80s late next week.

 

Euro is pretty pedestrian looking as well.

[Phil]

Over the next 10 days, the 12z ECMWF only has four warm days @ PDX (two days in the low/mid 80s, two in the low 90s) followed by another string of cooler than average weather/troughing.

 

As has been the case since June, troughing looks to dominate in the long run, with the occasional 3-4 day warm spike.

[ShawniganLake]

MOS shows PDX peaking in the upper 80s late next week.

 

Euro is pretty pedestrian looking as well.

MOS usually runs a few degrees cool doesn't it?

 

I am not confident about anything. All I said was it "could" get hot next week. It's on the table at this point.

[Jesse]

MOS usually runs a few degrees cool doesn't it?

 

I am not confident about anything. All I said was it "could" get hot next week. It's on the table at this point.

 

Will be fun to watch. I actually plan to make a forecast contest.

 

I'm not feeling a big event, but who knows, I could be wrong.

[Phil]

When PDX hit 90, SLE 95 and EUG 94 two days ago this is what the GEM and GFS were calling for just one day out. The GEM was -3 for PDX, -7 for SLE and -5 for EUG. The GFS was -2 for PDX, -4 for SLE and -6 for EUG. These are pretty big misses for just a day out and both models were too cold.

Remember that every model was biased warm during the 7/25 to 7/29 event. The reference to last week doesn't exactly prove anything.

[Jesse]

Remember that every model was biased warm during the 7/25 to 7/29 event. The reference to last week doesn't exactly prove anything.

Last Thursday was a strange animal. The models suddenly switched to showing much more robust offshore flow the night before.

 

I agree that it doesn't have any bearing on future events, obviously.

[James Jones]

Is it just me or are the trees showing quite a bit more color than usual for this point in the summer? I wonder if they're still feeling the stress from last summer and this year's warm/dry spring.

[Jesse]

Is it just me or are the trees showing quite a bit more color than usual for this point in the summer? I wonder if they're still feeling the stress from last summer and this year's warm/dry spring.

I've been noticing the same thing. We could use a good rain event down here.

[Deweydog]

Why is it forecast contests are only prompted by warm weather? What about one of these face melting troughs?

[James Jones]

I've been noticing the same thing. We could use a good rain event down here.

Yeah, looks like we're going to be waiting a while though. 

[Jesse]

Euro ensembles are much less bullish for a warm spell late next week. Crash things pretty quickly.

[Jesse]

Why is it forecast contests are only prompted by warm weather? What about one of these face melting troughs?

That's a good question. I was actually just thinking the same thing.

[MossMan]

Upper 50s to low 60s feels a little humid at home. We have had a lot of that this summer. Upper 40s and low 50s is not humid. Jesse is being a d×ck again. Others have said it has felt sort of humid from Seattle to Vancouver. Including Jim. IT HAS. Quit telling people what it feels like.

Yes! This year has felt much more humid than last year even with the slightly cooler temps.

[MossMan]

Seattle looks socked in good... going to be a cool day there regardless of any clearing now.

 

Looks sunny at our house though.

Clouds are just now breaking up here now. 66 degrees.

[Jesse]

Pretty incredible that PDX is only 71 with a DP of 49 at 3pm despite sunshine most of the day. Feels like a September afternoon.

[MossMan]

Pretty incredible that PDX is only 71 with a DP of 49 at 3pm despite sunshine most of the day. Feels like a September afternoon.

Jim did mention that today would have a September feel to it!

[Geos]

Seattle looks socked in good... going to be a cool day there regardless of any clearing now.

 

Looks sunny at our house though.  

 

Yeah it was really socked in with clouds until 3pm here. Still plenty of clouds around. 67° right now.

 

[Deweydog]

Evening highs??????

[Timmy Supercell]

So I did eventually bother to clip down stuff and upload a video. Around 20 minutes worth of footage cut down to 3 minutes. There was so much more lightning that didn't pick up, I guess in the daylight it's difficult for even my new cameras to capture that stuff. During the May 4th storm I used the exact same camera and it picked up dozens of flashes/bolts with relative ease.

 

[Deweydog]

The new 18z GFS pumps up the ridge directly over the PNW in the long range. Models will flip flop over the next coming days but eventually should put the ridge closer to us and less offshore.

 

http://i.imgur.com/YyEjG4N.png

Pretty scienticious analysis, my friend.

[TT-SEA]

Nice evening here... 78 with a dewpoint of 58.   

 

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Yeah it was really socked in with clouds until 3pm here. Still plenty of clouds around. 67° right now.

 

 

Pretty much the opposite here. It started off sunny then around 3pm the cloud deck rolled in. With temperatures peaking around 65F this looks to be our coldest day since July 7th.

[Phil]

The new 18z GFS pumps up the ridge directly over the PNW in the long range. Models will flip flop over the next coming days but eventually should put the ridge closer to us and less offshore

Hour 384? Really dude?

 

Maybe it'll get pushed so far back even the clown range 18z GFS won't pick up on it.

[Phil]

I've already explained why I think a west coast ridge will form in earlier posts. I don't want to bore people with my analysis.

I hope you realize the "typhoon rule" (as some call it) refers to resultant cyclonic wavebreaking that occurs within one week of the recurve, right?

 

The ridging you're referring to (18z GFS) all occurs beyond 300hrs, as in, it'd have nothing to do with the typhoon. Sometimes, these recurving typhoons have little to no effect on the jet/wavetrain to begin with. It's a complicated interaction that really isn't something that should be relied on too heavily.

[ShawniganLake]

Pretty much the opposite here. It started off sunny then around 3pm the cloud deck rolled in. With temperatures peaking around 65F this looks to be our coldest day since July 7th.

Cloudy all day up here today. Couple of sprinkles too.

[Phil]

The problem is these rules aren't really "rules" at all, because they very often fail. This is something you'll come to realize over time, I suspect, as the curve fitting and excuse making comes home to roost.

[Deweydog]

Today's 57 couldn't beat last year's 8-6 low of 56 at PDX.

 

#whatadifferenceayearmakes

#preciousninomemories

#ninahell

#feelthebern

#beiberfever

[Phil]

OLM was -9 today, -13 on the high. That's legit.

[TT-SEA]

OLM was -9 today, -13 on the high. That's legit.

 

Seriously legit.... this little stationary ULL is impressive.    Very unusual situation.

[BLI snowman]

Looking a little better for widespread rain on Monday now down here. 

[ShawniganLake]

Seriously legit.... this little stationary ULL is impressive.    Very unusual situation.

I cant believe the Euro weeklies didn't see this ULL coming.  Pretty disappointing 

[Timmy Supercell]

Looks like my storms today failed to trigger. A couple tiny ones in Northern CA earlier but nothing in southern Oregon all day or evening so far. The AFD did mention some night storms but I would imagine by 12-1am the chance is no longer there. 

 

Maybe next week I'll get another.